Steadygain's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Please everyone forgive me if I bring "bad luck" to the markets.

I went 80% C Fund/20% S Fund @ COB today.

Have been on the sidelines and missed one the best gains the Markets have provided - especially over the past week.

AT SOME POINT - YOU HAVE TO THROW IN THE TOWEL AND SAY ENOUGH IS ENOUGH - TO CONTINUE WAITING FOR THE RED AND MISS THE GREEN IS A TRAGIC MISTAKE.

 

[Steadygain]

After three, maybe four days of beatiful consolidation...I look for another push like last week..

Thanks my friend, that's how I see it. At this point I have to believe that if the Markets go down it will be "the consolidation" that leads to another push higher. C Fund gained 4% last week - which would have taken me half way to positive territory.

It's just the beginning of the 2nd quarter - but everything now solidly shows the buyers are far exceeding the sellers and that is when we need to be fully in the game.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=5535

 

[Birchtree]

Ca-ching. Glad to see you are back in the game for the profits - enough of this capital preservation, we need capital appreciation. I anticipate hitting the zero mark by the end of this month - although the oceanic is steaming along.

 

[Steadygain]

Ca-ching.

That's funny Birch. Of course you know who that reminds me of. Now after all this time I kind of miss the little rascle.

Well needless to say - the day I go in - the Markets Dive and the F Fund takes off. But the only way to have a real chance of ending the year with good gains is letting it ride for awhile. A person would be pretty hard pressed to not recognize the buyers enthusiam - so at this point the profit takers don't really bother me. I can't help but think the upward thrend will hold a little while longer - even if we do go through a brief consolidation.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=5535

 

[Steadygain]

Wow this is pretty crazy - honestly I feel like I'm on another planet as far as the ITF snail mail thing.

If they back track then I'm bound to get burned but will hope I can continue as I've always done.

I do think in the long run all of us will be a lot smarter in our moves.

On the GREEN side I put a lot into Uptrend's take on things and most of my other MB Sources are also looking for some upswing.

On the RED - when GE gives bad news that is the worst predictor imaginable. To me that's pretty well equivelent to the Bank's Major Crisis. Of course I'd been saying all this stuff several weeks ago when I thought for sure we would spiral down at a much faster course - ONLY TO HAVE A SUPER RALLY. So since the Markets seem to react the opposite to what I would expect - we should see another rally ON THE WAY.

I will probably move back towards SAFETY after a short rally mainly because more and more THE MAJOR PLAYERS ARE EXPECTING THINGS TO GET A LOT WORSE - AND SO I LOOK FORWARD TO A HUGE DIVE YET TO COME. Jobs are evaporating like crazy - and the doom of increasing prices with mounting job insecurity is taking it's toll across the country. I expect things to get way worse and the Markets have no other choice but tumble as a result.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=5535

 

[Birchtree]

Copper is currently at its all time highs - copper is a leading metal indicator of future economic expansion or contraction, so with this base metal about to break out to the upside, this says very good things about the economy moving forward.

 

[Steadygain]

Copper is currently at its all time highs - copper is a leading metal indicator of future economic expansion or contraction, so with this base metal about to break out to the upside, this says very good things about the economy moving forward.

Thanks Birch,
You, Uptrend, and a few others are very reassuring. I really appreciate it.

I think that part of me is always a bit nervous when I go 100% Stocks - now 80% C/20% S - BUT I DETERMINED THAT WHEN I DID GO IN I WOULD STAY IN FOR QUITE AWHILE.

I know the snail mail situation has burned many on this MB but for me personally it means staying in long enough to seize a rally instead of jumping in and losing 2% and jumping out to miss a 4% gain.

Anyway - I think you guys have a much better grasp on what's happening to push the Markets forward and that's refreshing news.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=5535

 

[Steadygain]

OK everyone - when I punch the numbers it makes a lot of since but PRIDE is a big part of the picture (from my wife as well)

My father wants to pay off the remaining principal on my house which is roughly $80,000 - because the Treasuries are only paying 1.5%. But he knows there's no way I would ever let him do this so he's come up with a good plan. I switch from 5% to 1.5% and pay him.

So what do you all think - put yourself in my place.

 

[coach222]

Steady

Did the similar thing for my grandmother last year. Worked out well.

 

[JTH]

I’m not a big fan of mixing family with money and I certainly understand the pride thing. Truth is I’d decline the deal myself, only because I could never live with myself if I were to miss a payment due to unforeseeable circumstances. There is something special that happens between a father and his son, when the son grows up and establishes his own independence. I love my dad a lot, but I also love knowing I’ve never needed or asked for a handout. Pride is a funny thing….

 

[wv-girl]

If you can separate business from family and have binding financial agreements, both of the parties knowing that one(business) has nothing to do with the other(family), then it sounds like it might work. Otherwise, it is not worth it. Please never let $ get in the way of relationships,(easier said than done).

my 2 cents

 

[Silverbird]

Think of it this way. In the future, your parents may need your help, whether monetary, spiritual, or even errands and cooking. People are living longer. Think of it, as a long term investment - and if your parents start to fret later that you are doing too much for them and it is something they can no longer do as efficiently themselves - you can call it quid pro quo for them becoming your business partner for the house loan.

WV girl also has a point - you'll want to run this like a business deal, with a written document and signatures. It would be good practice for the future if you wish to do what I"m suggesting above.

 

[Steadygain]

I’m not a big fan of mixing family with money and I certainly understand the pride thing. Truth is I’d decline the deal myself, only because I could never live with myself if I were to miss a payment due to unforeseeable circumstances. There is something special that happens between a father and his son, when the son grows up and establishes his own independence. I love my dad a lot, but I also love knowing I’ve never needed or asked for a handout. Pride is a funny thing….

Thanks everyone - I appreciate your input.

I've been independant for many years and have no financial problems and of course my dad is well aware of that. I think in part his offer is a retaliation towards the treasuries, part is having way to much to spare, and part of course is a loving gesture towards me and my family. Unforseeable circumstances is VERY GOOD and that's what I'll use if it comes up again. I've got the money to pay the house off - but am using it to fully pay the college expenses of my kids and always have a reserve for another car or whatever.

Anyway - mixing money with family is a way bigger deal for me if I the one getting it. The main problem from my prespective is owing him in general - especially when he's up in his 80s - and then the dread on not having him fully paid back before he passes. It's not that he would ever need it - it's simply that he died when I was in debt to him.

Again - thank you all.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Thanks everyone - I appreciate your input.

I've been independant for many years and have no financial problems and of course my dad is well aware of that. I think in part his offer is a retaliation towards the treasuries, part is having way to much to spare, and part of course is a loving gesture towards me and my family. Unforseeable circumstances is VERY GOOD and that's what I'll use if it comes up again. I've got the money to pay the house off - but am using it to fully pay the college expenses of my kids and always have a reserve for another car or whatever.

Anyway - mixing money with family is a way bigger deal for me if I the one getting it. The main problem from my prespective is owing him in general - especially when he's up in his 80s - and then the dread on not having him fully paid back before he passes. It's not that he would ever need it - it's simply that he died when I was in debt to him.

Again - thank you all.

Heck yeah, give him 2.5%. You cut your payment in half and he beats the treasuries. Unless the taxes make it impractical to either party.

 

[Birchtree]

I would not trust the Fed in making any longer term financial plans - look what they just did to the housing market. Another 17 rate increases will have another sector screaming.

 

[Steadygain]

More Pain for Financial Sector​

New Jobless Claims Surge​

Oil/Gas prices rising to Record Highs​

http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/​

Of course we knew today would have to settle down a bit after yesterday's blast to the sky (so I'm not surprised the start is down). ​

Several weeks prior I had stressed the inevitable course of a collapsing Financial Sector: 1) FED would make huge cuts and costly bail-outs 2) A good face (through JPMorgan Chase) would ward off wide spread panic 3) Jobs would have to evaporate 4) A sinking Dollar would force Oil/Gas to record highs and in fact the prices of food and everything else will rise as well. And GE's bad press is unavoidable. When the economy slows the industries will suffer. ​

In general - the bulk of the population has largely been spared from the HARDSHIPS falling upon us. Of course the Politicians are all taking about going after the ones with $200,000+ jobs - but laws in general are for the rich and powerful - so the endless loopholes will not be disclosed. WE WILL ALL PAY - AND THE ONES MAKING UNDER $100,000 will pay the most. ​

Here I would echo what James (moderator) has said. If we settle slightly - there is still a chance the rally will continue (and for that reason I will remain 80% C/20% S). We need to be ready when a "Rally Mode" is in play. IF WE GO DOWN - HOWEVER - I WILL MOVE TO G FUND - BECAUSE THE FALL SHOULD BE VERY STEEP.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=5535​

 

[kar_crazy]

good steady gain for you yesterday kick back and hold on tight ride the storm out , of course we dont have many choices now do we G L Brother

 

[Corepuncher]

I could be wrong here, but I'll predict the bottom falls out today or tomorrow. Not in a huge way, but I think we give back much of the gains made the other day. Adv/Dec on the Nasdaq is decidedly bearish. Horrible Housing numbers yesterday, the philly fed today, and rising continued jobless claims, not to mention 115 oil. Another rally cut short I predict...

I think I'll keep my 50G 50F for now, was thinking of buying more F, but it's not behaving very well!

 

[Steadygain]

I predict the bottom falls out today or tomorrow. Not in a huge way, but I think we give back much of the gains made the other day. Another rally cut short I predict...

Well that is pretty much in line with Jame's Theory - which I think is accurate - and in fact that's the basis of my current Market view. The important point he made, however, is that if things consolidate then we can certainly expect a further rise. At this time EVERYTHING points to a consolidation - not a fall - so things are looking good.

 

[Steadygain]

Wow - I just checked the Auto Tracker and noticed 4 or 5 of the ones I pay close attention to went G Fund or F Fund.

Too late for me - I'm still 80% C and 20% S

Unfortunately the Markets have been more week to week for a long time and therefore I'm a little leary about next week starting off pretty bad. The past few weeks have been the most consistent sustained BULL MARKET is quite awhile - and Birch (my bigger brother) has me pretty convinced the best is yet to come.