Steadygain's Account Talk

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FED hopes to sweep problem under the rug.
LEWIS won't let that happen. ​
Lewis said the shareholder group will take "whatever action that they deem necessary and appropriate to protect the value of their investment in the shares," including encouraging Bear Stearns and third parties to consider an alternative transaction.
Bear Stearns (BSC, Fortune 500) was forced to accept the deal with JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500) after risky bets on securities tied to subprime mortgages pushed the bank to the brink of collapse.


http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/20/news/companies/bear_lewis.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008032007
 
Steadygain said:
Market Analysis​
Here all of us need to appreciate that "MONEY" is largely the bottom line. When the Financial Structures - THE VERY PILLARS THAT ARE BEHIND THE MONEY CRUMBLE - the economy will suffer. Bear Stearns represents A HUGE SECTOR - VERY HUGE - and when the FED got JPMorganChase Bank (my personal bank) in on the situation it SHOWS A VERY MAJOR CONDITION WAS URGENTLY NEEDING ADDRESSED. JPMorgan told the FED - "no way in hell are we taking this loss" - the FED responded by saying "We are not asking you to take it" - We (the FED) will take the loss and you can buy at $2 a share (valued at $30). All this to SHOW THE PUBLIC that everything is OK. ​
Click to expand...


I began the day sharing about the Financial Sector and its central role in our economy. CIT Group is stronger than some of the others; my hunch is either the press is afraid of A PANIC or have been warned to keep quiet. ​
 
Steadygain said:
I began the day sharing about the Financial Sector and its central role in our economy. CIT Group is stronger than some of the others; my hunch is either the press is afraid of A PANIC or have been warned to keep quiet. [/left]
Click to expand...

The press MIGHT be afraid (I doubt), but no one can WARN them to keep quiet. That would only assure they would print it. The only way to keep them quite, would be to issue and injunction to every press agent that may have access to the information. That would be very difficult at best.
 
BlueMax said:
The press MIGHT be afraid (I doubt), but no one can WARN them to keep quiet. That would only assure they would print it. The only way to keep them quite, would be to issue and injunction to every press agent that may have access to the information. That would be very difficult at best.
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You're definately right!, and I'm glad you are. It's not the first time I've typed so fast - without thinking what I'm really trying to express. ANYWAY - the subprime mortage mess and all that goes with it ARE NOTHING COMPARED TO THE FOUNDATIONS GIVING AWAY. Of course the FED has done all they can possibly do, by the BILLIONS and BILLIONS they continue pouring out for BAIL OUTS and making the money more FREE - but the realization of the magnitude of WEAKNESS in the INSTITUATIONS THEMSELVES is only now really hitting the SPOT-LIGHT. My point is What took so long to bring this out??

In the end it is the best thing that could happen; but jobs will disappear, costs will go up, and "all hell will break loose" - until the underlying changes are made - and "bail outs/rate cuts" only prolong the agony.
 
Steadygain said:
In the end it is the best thing that could happen; but jobs will disappear, costs will go up, and "all hell will break loose" - until the underlying changes are made - and "bail outs/rate cuts" only prolong the agony.
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....soo.. umm.. what you are saying is that you are heading to the G Fund then..??


:D
 
Asylum said:
....soo.. umm.. what you are saying is that you are heading to the G Fund then..??

:D
Click to expand...

For now will keep 40% in F Fund - only because it has to go up once the news really sinks in and "the money" responds. But F Fund can only go up - so far - so then will stay 100% G Fund.

The great news is: NOTHING WILL TAKE US FASTER TO THE BOTTOM - and then I'm going HIGH RISK the rest of the year.

Usually I'll look for occasional opportunities to hop "in and out" but now I'm convinced it's better to simply sit back and let things fall.
 
Right or Wrong - These are the FACTS​

Last summer 2 Hedge Funds managed by Bear Stearns failed - which set off a CREDIT CRISIS that swept up banks and brokerages around the globe. The resulting trouble in the MARKETS cast a gloomy picture. The Power Players did everything possible to keep Bear floating through BAIL OUTS and CUTS. Bear Stearns' troubles increased when market speculation grew that is might have to seize collateral - mostly mortagage backed securities - from Carlyle Group. As investors, customers, and lenders raced to withdraw their money it was very clear the withdrawals would outpace the bank's resources - and thus BEAR STEARNS went under - sparking the swift and urgent action of the SEC, the FED, and JPMorgan to "close the wound" before REAL DAMAGE WAS DONE. ​


Please know - EVERYONE - I am not trying to be your typical "doom prophet" talking a bunch of garbage on sheer gut feelings; I am fully convinced that THE FINANCIAL SECTOR has way more weakness than THOSE IN CHARGE want the public to know but this information is only now really getting out. EVERYTHING is now SUPPORTING WHAT I AM SAYING - AND IF I AM RIGHT - EXPECT AT LEAST ANOTHER 20% DROP IN THE MARKETS. ​
 
Steadygain said:
As investors, customers, and lenders raced to withdraw their money it was very clear the withdrawals would outpace the bank's resources - and thus BEAR STEARNS went under - sparking the swift and urgent action of the SEC, the FED, and JPMorgan to "close the wound" before REAL DAMAGE WAS DONE. ​
Click to expand...



The recent wonderful activity should not surprise us, as the FED proved themselves in miraculous ways by first offering a huge CUT at a critical time - and all the more bailing Bear Stearns out at the critical moment. These are HUGE ACTIONS - and their importance could never be underestimated. 1) The outlook was terrible and everyone saw the Markets crumbling - in turn the FED stepped in (as expected) and rescued the general economy with a huge cut. 2) Bear Stearns went under - and this news would most certainly have rocked the Markets. The FED dominated this rescue in combination with the SEC - which brought in JPMorgan and forced them to stop the bleeding and "perform the recovery". The end result showed the world at large that WE HAVE THE POWER TO SAVE THE ECONOMY and allowed the Press to publish "JPMorgan buys Bear - Rescues Economy"The drawback at this point are the Tresuries which are at miminum 50 year lows. Unfortunately I left my material in the car and forget the other 50 year low marks - but in general it solidly points to the TRUTH - that "WE ARE STILL ON VERY THIN ICE AND AS WONDERFUL AS THINGS PRESENTLY APPEAR - IF THAT ICE BREAKS THERE IS NOTHING THE FED/SEC/G8 and the BUSH Administration can do to keep the MARKETS from tumbling. So I will stay in safety until THE ICE IS THICKER (A SOLID BOTTOM IS FOUND).
​
 
It's still hard to tell where we are with the Markets. It appears they are trying to make sweeping changes on WALL STREET and implement changes in general to bring greater economic stability. I remain 60% G/40% F until the dust settles.


All the news and events of today are too uncertain. Have decided to dwell on something more worthwhile.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=5535
 
The one here is probably my favorite, but is much more designed to take your mind off those things.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=5535


I would say Uptrend's Thread is one of the best to address your question. He often gives reference to the limitations when discussing his ITFs. I also believe he's very solid in his analysis and suggestions.

On the whole I believe we are all better off trying to limit our trades to 3 a month so we can do the Online Same Day ITFs that are still available to the larger population. If, and when, I get "the letter" then I will immediately comply - rather than lose the ability to do same day online transfers.

Afraid you picked the wrong place to bring this up. After reading many of the other posts I am fully convinced that those in charge are out to squash "open resistence" - therefore I feel we are way better off trying to work with the changes and not be forced to snail mail.

In the long run I beleive the Markets generally have a BULL or BEAR Thrend that we can rely on. No one would say 2008 has been anything other than a BEAR MARKET - however one member had a 15% Gain. These rapid trades don't usually end so well; so it may be the best thing for now is keep your allocations to adjust to the most recent VOLATILITY - and when the BULL EMERGES shift everything to high risk.
 
Keep in mind, you actually DON'T have three IFT's per month, you really just have TWO. A third could ONLY be a move back to G, and apparently that doesn't have to be a 100% move to G, but just a move to G, if I'm reading it right. But my point is just to remind people that the new rule is TWO not THREE IFT's. Now this raises a question for me. A pure reading of the new rules, again, doesn't state that a move beyond the two IFT's has to be a move of 100% to G, but just that it's a move to G, so theoretically you could make as many as you want beyond TWO as long as it was always a move to G. Does that sound correct?

Participants can make two (2) interfund transfers per calendar month. After that, they may only move money from the Fixed Income Index Investment (F) Fund, the Common Stock Index Investment (C) Fund, the Small Capitalization Stock Index Investment (S) Fund, the International Stock Index Investment (I) Fund, and the L Funds to the G Fund.

We will count the interfund transfer based on its process date, not the date the interfund transfer was requested.

If your first or second interfund transfer in a month moves money only to the G Fund, it still counts toward your two (2) interfund transfers per month limit
 
Reactive1 said:
Keep in mind, you actually DON'T have three IFT's per month, you really just have TWO.
Participants can make two (2) interfund transfers per calendar month.
Click to expand...

Honestly this subject is way worse than the Ebb change that occured shortly after I joined the MB and I am thoroughly convinced that it is best to stive to stay in the recommended 2 trades per month. I don't want a letter - ever.

I do feel for those who have been forced to snail mail - yet many on the MB who received "the letter" are still able to make the online transfers because they took the warning seriously.

SO HERE IS THE NEW STRATEGY​
NOW - that April is here I feel safer making an ITF and will stive to limit the ITFs to 2 (or 3) a month. I have been 60/40 (G/F) while the Markets appeared to be stablizing and though this has largely prevented any real loss - it has certainly limited my gains.

I will now shift to C/S - as the US Markets are the most crucial players in our TSP Funds. If there was a TSP Fund - for Hong Kong/Asia then I would have been there a long time ago and all the more celebrated since 6/07 when everyone else was crying. But at some point you have to go in and hope for the best and I'm sick and tired of being on the side lines on the good days. If the Markets do recover there is still a lot of territory to go so getting in now still gives me lots of opportunity for substantial gains.
 
Well I had 2 tragic events happen yesterday:
1) Missed the gains and took a loss (60%G/40%F)
2) Had a psychotic patient grab my lava lamp - shout "Son of a bitch" and smash it on the floor. He was confused - like he had no clue what he was doing - and it was not anger vented towards me. I have another one in a drawer but my Chief is now afraid to let me have anything on my desk. So need to go without one for awhile.

I'm at a loss of words at the moment. I certainly share Dr. F's feelings that the US Markets will likely pay off and expressed that yesterday. My MAIN CONCERN at the present it that the FED and GOVERMENT have successfully placed a veil over THE TRUE UNDERLYING CONDITIONS by making it clear that the FED has been granted the power to CONTROL WALL STREET and that this news in conjunction with whatever they can put out in the headlines will convince everyone that all problems have disappeared. So if we see the FED (in FULL CONTROL) as "the FIX" then things will go up - but if we SEE THE UNDERLYING WEAKNESS and the reason why Paulson announced on TV "That the economy now has major weakness that needs to be urgently addressed - and this weakness will remain for most of this year" That is almost word for word what he did say and I see that as an accurate assessment - then we can certainly expect another SIGNIFICANT DROP - AND THE DOWNWARD TREND TO CONTINUE. Since I am trying to limit my ITFs to 2/month I think I should remain where I am - and hope the Markets tumble in the near future - and then go fully in the USM.

So for now - will continue on the sidelines and look like an idiot.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=5535
 
BlueMax said:
Steady,

You are truely "One of a Kind".
Click to expand...

Thanks my friend. Have to admit, I've heard that one a few times.

Wow - I wish it were me retiring in 8 months with 40 years. None of this stuff (all the Market News) would mean anything compared to that. I would most certainly be counting the days - ready to enact my retirement plans and live life to the fullest.

My hunch is, you're still young and in pretty good health. I hope that's true! Anyway, have a great day - enjoy the weather and remember that many of us have at least another 8 or 10 years.
 
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