Steadygain's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Anyone who invested everything at the top of the market could be waiting a long time for a full recovery of their capital. I avoided that mistake realizing that there is always a blind side that could happen. I went mostly wide and shallow building my portfolio for diversification and income. But for anyone who's been building a diversified portfolio of quality companies, and especially for anyone pursuing dollar cost averaging strategies to include dividend reinvestments throughout this downturn, the odds of a solid return are still very likely. Did we place the ultimate bottom on Friday with an intraday low of 6469.95 on the Dow and 666.79 on the SPX - I think we did. It may simply be that the January 6th peak will have to be bettered before the real volume comes in. Could this be a fake rally - the bull wants everyone to think so. The fewer participants the better. The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.

TO ANYONE LOOKING FOR THE BEST ADVISE POSSIBLE

Take out the RED PORTION and read the rest on a daily basis until it is so deeply ground into your thinking that you don't have to read it anymore - until it becomes everything you stand for and the basis of all future investments.

BY FOLLOWING THIS ADVISE - THE BOTTOM MAKES NO DIFFERENCE BECAUSE YOU ARE PLANNING LONG TERM.

It's highly likely that this WAS NOT the BOTTOM - and the BEAR wants to take as many as possible and do the most damage.

 

[Steadygain]

Congrats on the (S) pick-me-up!

Thanks Rod - I'm way more comfortable with the space between me and the G Funders and that was the ultimate goal.

It looks like a good day today as well and fortunately most of the other players are still at the Table.

THIS IS HOW THINGS NEED TO LOOK - The greater the space between the TOP 10 and the G BAND that devides them from those that went under - the more all can see NO MATTER WHAT - the BEST WAY TO MAXIMIZE YOUR RETURNS IS TAKING A RISK BUT PLAYING IT SMART.

So I'm very happy with my current standing - and I'd love to see the others push towards 10% and stay there when it goes back down.

... Poll Vaulted Over Everyone in the Allocation records!!!

Sometimes you 'feel the time is right' - and that's when it's better to hold on (even if you lose 4%) - knowing a bigger gain is coming.

Steady, lucky or masterful :cheesy:
It's BOTH - in this Market - no matter what the charts, 20, 50, or anything else says (including seasonality) - everything is based on what has happened in the here and now; and I knew it COULD NOT go much lower without a Substantial GAIN (no matter how brief that may last).

Nice to have over a 7% bounce on the day you bail out. A thing of beauty.
Thanks man - I really appreciate it. I felt like a girl by the time it was all done (changed my mind 3 different times) but in the end I'm happy with the final decision.

I might reallocate another 10% from G/F into C/S tomorrow. Any more growth and I will have to buy on the dips Like the good old days...

Yeah - It's mighty tempting and I sure hope the VERY BEST for you and Lady buying after a day like yesterday and all the more if it goes up today.

But, that will be my last IFT of the month. Uuuugggghhhh. At least it will be a forward trade.

The RESTRICTIONS are undoubtedly a pain in the @$$ - but this year more than any other year I believe the TOP 10 will prove it's no longer an issue and the numbers exceeding G FUND will increase as the year goes on by a significant margin.

There is absolutely NOTHING Wrong with SAFETY - and on the whole the TOP 10 will have to stay there - but when GAINS are ripe for the picking YOU HAVE TO BE READY. That's the bigger drawback to the 2 IFTs - you only get 1 real opportunity a month.

Anyway - GL to you - and to everyone else - and thanks for stoppn' by

 

[Steadygain]

DEJA VU​

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=211299&postcount=282​

Today I'll pretty much stay in the Presidental Suite. ​

This time when I walked from the Table - I had $280K left over. It was pretty cool when we went up the elevator. There are the standard buttons and then you've got this little square pad above them. When I put my finger on the pad - it read my print and lit up 'Welcome to the President Suite' - you should have seen her face - let alone when we stepped out to the Suite. ​

In the movie Pretty Woman - there is one scene where the woman is getting 'dressed up' to go out - and the hotel manager let her wear a necklace that was stunningly beautiful. ​

Later on today I'm buying a necklace identical to that for this sweet beautiful lady. I want her to feel like a million bucks - want her to feel absolutely priceless when we go out this evening. Then she'll be all the more like Ella but a billion times better. ​

Well - GL to all - I'll probably 'chill' most of the day ​

 

[Steadygain]

Where is the VOLUME??

Just checked S Fund - and essentially NO VOLUME
.............so I have no clue what's holding it up

C Fund - had some but it's disappearing

On the bright side - with yesterday's tremendous gains things are holding steady - so there could easily be some up swing before we really go back down

On the gloomy side - if yesterday was a euphoric play - and the steam/pressure was released - then the volume controlling this market may have fizzled out

In the short term I would still lead towards a GAIN - even if we have some settling along the way.

 

[Steadygain]

Whew !!

Just looked at the AT and noticed the ones I watch the most went SAFETY


No offense to Elliot (or anyone else) but this BEAR does not care about any of that stuff....

and I'd way rather see everyone HOLD ON TO a substantial LEAD


So thanks to all - Kevin you too - now I can relax.

 

[Steadygain]

Well kids, your Dad is getting tired :blink:

So I think I'll call it a night.

Watching the Markets today - was like watching one of you kids stepping further and further out on the ice :worried:

I'm holding my breath every other second ......

....listening for it to crack .... wondering when it's going to break

Days like this are probably more trying than most because you never know from one minute to the next what to expect :nuts:


So have a great night everyone. Make sure the stove is off and the lights are out before you go to bed. Oh yeah - and don't forget - I need each of you to sit on the floor by Ella's crate and talk to her for a few minutes with the sweetest most loving voice you can and let her know how beautiful she is. It makes no difference whether she's asleep or not - I want to flood her life with all the beauty we can possibly give her.

Good night

 

[Steadygain]

Good morning to all


Woke up about 3am - realizing we're actually in a Rally Mode that will likely last 3 to 5 weeks with gains of 20% or better.


But I'm a 'gut man' and don't know how to explain it. Yet I do absorb a lot of what others share and undoubtedly those analysists and many on the MB have me convinced the near future is EXCELLENT despite some volitility along the way.

So I'm going to enact the <1% Bill of Rights and start going HIGH RISK as much as possible beginning today.

GL to everyone - and PLEASE KNOW I'M NOT COMPETING WITH ANY OF YOU - SO DO ALL YOU CAN TO GET ABOVE ME.


I WANT TO HUMILIATE THIS BEAR AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE

Have a busy schedule - so came in early to get in touch and share some ideas... would love to see all of us come out winning

 

[Birchtree]

In my post to you in my thread I forgot to mention the positive aspects of the Kress 6-year cycle lifting us up. Fear has been overcoming this positive divergence but that is changing. We also have the 4.5 year cycle up, the 80 week cycle up, the 40 week cycle up, the 20 week cycle up - so it's all up to mother nature in my opinion. Bull markets always find a way to keep the majority frightened and out. This is hardly the time to hunker down and take bets off the table. The longer that amateurs and hedge funds are afraiod to get back into the stock market, the longer it will be able to rally, and therefore the more elevated it will become in 2009. The SPX is now up 10% from last Friday. The stock market tends to boom for seven years following a period when dividend yields are high. Bob Farrell said that many market bottoms have been made when the major market indices have violated previously "well advertised" lows like Dow at 7552. He called such occurrencies "undercut lows" Dow at 6569 and thought they had a pretty good chance of holding most of the time. Trust in mother nature.

 

[Steadygain]

In my post to you in my thread I forgot to mention the positive aspects of the Kress 6-year cycle lifting us up. Fear has been overcoming this positive divergence but that is changing. We also have the 4.5 year cycle up, the 80 week cycle up, the 40 week cycle up, the 20 week cycle up - so it's all up to mother nature in my opinion.

I've been leaning towards Kress - more and more.

I think the UP Cycle will primarily take place this summer. I'm also in full agreement that Mother Nature CAN NOT be changed no matter what the DHs in Washington say - or the doom and gloom analysists.

THIS RALLY IS LIVING PROOF OF THAT

Bull markets always find a way to keep the majority frightened and out.

If the BEAR can't keep me out - there is NO WAY the BULL can.

This is hardly the time to hunker down and take bets off the table.

Well I didn't know it for sure until last night - but this is short term Birch (will definately feel like 'the real thing' by the time it's done)

The longer that amateurs and hedge funds are afraiod to get back into the stock market, the longer it will be able to rally, and therefore the more elevated it will become in 2009.

THAT IS PRETTY MUCH MY WHOLE PURPOSE OF COMMING IN SO EARLY - FELT THE OVERWHELMING NEED TO PUT THE WORD OUT FOR EVERYONE - IF YOU WANT TO MAKE MONEY DO IT NOW.

I hit a 'satisfying point' - but now more than ever would love to see a lot of Members pass me by. Everytime that happens the BEAR is getting kicked in the teeth.

The SPX is now up 10% from last Friday.

Don't be deceived - it'll come back down before it's over

The stock market tends to boom for seven years following a period when dividend yields are high.

WAY MORE THAN THAT - THE STOCK MARKETS WILL BOOM way before the ECONOMY IS BOOMING - GET IN EARLY

Bob Farrell said that many market bottoms have been made when the major market indices have violated previously "well advertised" lows like Dow at 7552. He called such occurrencies "undercut lows" Dow at 6569 and thought they had a pretty good chance of holding most of the time. Trust in mother nature.

Thanks Birch - This was a Great Post...

gotta run

Steady

 

[Steadygain]

If you're IN - YOU WIN

If you're OUT - YOU LOSE

That's right folks - NO YOU ARE NOT CRAZY !!!

A few days prior the B&H G Funders were taking the TOP 10

Had at least 4 positions.

And it was like LAST WEEK that I was just 0.01% ahead of them


TODAY WILL MARK THE BIGGEST CHANGES IN THE AT

HIGH RISK IS THE ONLY WAY POSSIBLE TO HIGH GAINS !!!


BIRCH and I ARE THE RALLY OFFICIALS AND WE CALL THIS A RALLY

My heart felt congratulations to ALL WHO ARE IN

 

[Birchtree]

Maybe we can catch a white swan today with 200 more points in the last hour. That would panic the bears and once that short covering starts it won't stop with at least 16 million shares to be replaced.

 

[WIND_HUNTER]

Looking Great so far. Looks like the real deal. We'll see....

 

[Steadygain]

Looking Great so far. Looks like the real deal. We'll see....

You are Kicking A$$ - BIG TIME

I'm thrilled to pieces you stayed the course



Hopefully down the road only those that stayed in G and F will be under me --- the rest will just fly right by me

 

[Birchtree]

I made a mistake on the number of shares short on the NYSE - that should be around 16 billion and not millions.

 

[Steadygain]

I made a mistake on the number of shares short on the NYSE - that should be around 16 billion and not millions.

No Problem


Tom and the Mods just had a meeting:

Unanimous DECISION - for this SITE

From now on Markets like the past few days
WILL BE CALLED

Birch Markets
​

Not BULL - and Not Rally

SO WE ARE EXPERIENCING A TRUE BIRCH MARKET

That's something no one could argue about. ​

 

[WorkFE]

I Likes me some Birch Market

 

[Steadygain]

I Likes me some Birch Market

Took me a little while to find ya

Had you been fully in the BIRCH MARKET beginning 3 days prior and any where near where you are now

You'd be way out of the water and pass the G Fund.

You're already in 75% so Hang in There


The BEAR'S main objective is to keep others out of High Risk .... make them so afraid that when he leaves others stay hidden and keep hiding.

 

[Steadygain]

For the OVERWHELMING BULK of the MB:

This is by far the WORST RECESSION of our LIFE

This BEAR has caused Marked Global Destruction


Learn from this - (I mean me especially) - after the Nov Low we had a significant rally.

There is a HUGE difference between a RALLY and a BOUNCE.

A rally ignores all the DATA - and goes against the Economic Pillars and Indicators - with sustained GROWTH.

For all those who are in HIGH RISK - my heartfelt congratulations !!!

Even during the worst news possible - huge gains were obtained and sustained.

BUT - we are in a BEAR MARKET and new lows are a given. So Grab what you can but HOLD ON for dear life.

 

[Birchtree]

We have entered a period of risk aversion unlike anything we've seen in our lifetime. Investors will be too wary for awhile. It's all good from my perspective. As for the average American investor, he'll be a deer in the headlights for years. It will be a while until greed gets comfortable again. What better time to invest for the long haul. Corporate insiders are still more bullish now than at any time since the two weeks immediately following the Black Monday market crash of 11/87. Stock market history shows that just as today's downturn has been pathologically violent, you can expect a vicious, ferocious upswing as the massive government created liquidity waits a vent hole. There is a geiser forming. There are many stocks selling for less than they could fetch if the entire company were sold off. By definition the bottom of a bear market has to be the point of maximum bearishness - I think we were there last week. We have set the stage for amazing investment opportunities that will make anything we've seen over the past ten years pale by comparison. I wonder how long it will take me to get off that #164 on the tracker.

 

[Steadygain]

We have entered a period of risk aversion unlike anything we've seen in our lifetime. Investors will be too wary for awhile. It's all good from my perspective. As for the average American investor, he'll be a deer in the headlights for years. It will be a while until greed gets comfortable again. What better time to invest for the long haul. Corporate insiders are still more bullish now than at any time since the two weeks immediately following the Black Monday market crash of 11/87. Stock market history shows that just as today's downturn has been pathologically violent, you can expect a vicious, ferocious upswing as the massive government created liquidity waits a vent hole. There is a geiser forming. There are many stocks selling for less than they could fetch if the entire company were sold off. By definition the bottom of a bear market has to be the point of maximum bearishness - I think we were there last week. We have set the stage for amazing investment opportunities that will make anything we've seen over the past ten years pale by comparison. I wonder how long it will take me to get off that #164 on the tracker.

I totally agree with everything your saying Birch and wish like anything I had stayed in High Risk.

I saw a 'bounce' when it was a 'rally'

No one could possibly question wheather stock prices are a fantastic deal - they are beyond excellent - no word is adequate to describe the reality of 'buying potiential' right here and now.

PLEASE UNDERSTAND - I am out to beat this BEAR in the worst way possible. This rally 'most certainly looks like a real bottom' but so did the Nov LOW. So for those who are not B&H - I'd say hold on and let this rally give you another 10% (maybe even more) but then LOCK IN.

This can not last indefinately in light of our economic conditions. It will fall - it has too fall - and new lows will spring to life.