Steadygain's Account Talk

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Steadygain said:
On the POLL we're a lot closer than I thought we'd be

Majority feels we'll go down 10% first

Despite the way things are 'feeling right now' - I still think we're in for a significant UP first.

WHY? Set up for the biggest PLUNGE to date :sick:

To many facts are coming out:
Unemployment claims are sky rocketing - topping 5M for first time
Mortgage rates going up
Durable goods continuing to plummet
Brittish Banks - getting nailed - forced Nationalization spreading...

EXPECT THE GAS PRICES TO RISE
EXPECT THE VERY WORST NEWS TO SURFACE

But if I'm right - we are dealing with one of the Smartest BEARS in history - even beyond the Great Depression...:rolleyes:

This BEAR has been dragging us slowly down - and if there is any rhyme or reason to what he's doing...and it's a MALE BEAR...then he knows this is basically his last chance... because everyone is getting so tired they're ready to leave it all and forget it. SO a MALE BEAR would save the best for last... and that means despite the indicators and all the news...he will let everyone think 'the stuggle is over' and we are on the way up.

So what happens if it's a FEMALE BEAR??

Hell if I know :confused: Your guess is as good as mine.

Highly unpredictable - things could change on a dime :worried:
Click to expand...

Steady,

I agree with what you are saying...except for the significant up first. We may go up, but I don't see it getting much above 800.
I am beginning to think the bailout of GM or forced government sponsored bankrupcy of GM will cause a ripple.....maybe even a tsumani.
 
Gumby said:
Steady,

I agree with what you are saying...

Thanks ... but agreeing with me could get you:
ostratracized by 82.7% of the MB
plagued with endless 'hate mail'
direct (and indirect) threats
and some even calling you bad names

except
Make sure you STRESS the except part :p

for the significant up first. We may go up, but I don't see it getting much above 800.

I thought as fast as we dropped the BEAR would tease us - dangle us around with a little volitility for maybe a week or so to keep us on the edge of our seats... and then COLDLY and CRUELY give us the presentation of an 'actual recovery' going up 7 to 10%. Let everyone flood the Markets and then WOOP.

I am beginning to think the bailout of GM or forced government sponsored bankrupcy of GM will cause a ripple.....maybe even a tsumani.
Click to expand...

GM is certainly part of it - unfortunately most are prone to giving too much credit to 'one particular thing'

I think 'tsumani' will describe it well :sick::sick:
 
OK - here's the Market update...

the things YOU NEED TO KNOW to make the right plans :);)

The White House had this "Aunt Bee" character (from the Andy Griffin Show) give an update on the Economy and Markets.

It's really funny - how she was dressed, her hair style, her facial expressions and the manner in which she gave the speech.

FOR THOSE WHO MISSED IT - PICTURE AUNT BEE GIVING A NATIONAL SPEECH TO UPDATE THE ENTIRE COUNTRY ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND MARKETS IN GENERAL. SO OF COURSE SHE DECIDES TO KEEP THE BIGGEST AND MOST INCREDIBLE SMILE SHE CAN THROUGHOUT HER SPEECH AND STRESS THE MOST DELIGHTFUL APPEARANCE (BUT SHE IS HERSELF DISTRACTING) AND WANTING TO READ THROUGH THIS LITTLE SPEECH CONVEYING HER 'AUNT BEE' SWEETNESS OVER EVERTHING ELSE.

So it was a mental challenge - but if you strip away everything and only focus on 'the message'.

1. THINGS WILL GET WORSE
2. MARKET BOTTOM WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL THE SUMMER (IN POLITICAL TALK - THAT PROBABLY ACTUALLY MEANS THE FALL)
3. TRACTION WILL TAKE PLACE THIS YEAR - AND THINGS WILL START TO TURN AROUND.

So for now - I am a Buy and Holder in G Fund - because the overwhelming odds of trying to Beat this Market will result in FAILURE. I'd rather stay above the water and wait 6 months collecting up all the money I can - and BUY AT THE REAL BOTTOM.

Have a great weekend everyone - I'll try to make it back before the end of the day but no promises. :p

Oh BTW - whoever sent the message in the Reputation Points... I love you my sweet adorable darling and your message warmed my heart more than you could ever know. So I picture lifting and holding you in the sea - with you facing up mostly out of the water - just laying there looking beautiful. In that moment we start to spin around and get caught up in a whirlwind that takes us way up in the sky and transports us to a paradise like no one has ever described before - way beyond what anyone to date has ever imagined.

So - THANK YOU !!
 
Good Morning :)

Well thank goodness for the G Fund in these never ending times of uncertainty. The odds are increasingly in favor of a 10% drop or greater before we get a 10% gain.

I thought our friend MR BEAR would bring in a brief rally that would extend a week or two - but apparently he's decided there is no need to build our hopes at all.

We still have not had a 'major dive' in 09 - and I keep expecting that way before I would expect a bottom or decent bounce. So from my perspective these 2% drops are not worth gambling on - when the following day could easily be a 4% drop further down.

With only 1 TRADE this month - I will wait for my LONG CHERISHED PANIC SELL OFF - and maybe go in on a 7% drop. Bounces at this point will have NOTHING to do with 'favorable indicators' OR any hope of reaching a bottom in the near future - so I may just hold in G and chill out for awhile.

Well GL to all the bold and daring willing to challenge these Markets
 
OK - I'll be the first to admit :cheesy:

I am different from most :p

I think the charts...

.......................the seasonality

..............................the cycles

..................................and all that stuff is pretty much a bunch of junk

TODAY - this current situation is unique

we are in a downward trend and there is no way it's going to reverse until the underlying dynamics of the economy get better.

YES - the Economy does influence the Markets

If you win betting in this Market - then you get lucky (very lucky) and that's it.

Now ME - what the hell - I'll still take a change in even the worst of situations and play on a ONE DAY bounce.
 
mojo said:
A lot of people looking for the bounce. Hope it works out ok for them.

http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_all.php
Click to expand...

I hope so too my friend - and I really appreciate this post (as it gives a lot of comfort seeing those who surfed the same wave).

I went 100% S Fund COB - and decided to wait to post it...

as I noticed most of us did.

I think us guys are highly competitive :D:D and we're just wired that way and we're going to take chances and hope for the best.

Last week - and the week before - we had a ONE DAY GAIN that was excellent - and so I'm hoping for a repeat. :nuts:

If I take a loss - I'll make it small - so will likely go out tomorrow either way (as a loss should be small and a gain should be large).

Uptrend - sorry about what happened; so far you and I seem the most alike in our overall Market decisions and in our general style of investing (at least from my point of view) :cool:
 
Steadygain said:
I went 100% S Fund COB - and decided to wait to post it...

as I noticed most of us did.

I think us guys are highly competitive :D:D and we're just wired that way and we're going to take chances and hope for the best.

Click to expand...

I see...You little devil...You've been holding out on us.:D

You know what they say...Sharing is caring.:D
 
Well I think I can officially call a close to the poll

All who voted we'd go down 10% - please come by and collect your $10 dollar bill at the end of today :)

All who voted we'd go up 10% - please bring your payment of $100 dollars immediately. :D:D


This is definately one of those days where if I saw the Markets for the first time and saw a 5% loss - I'd be thinkn' OH MY GOSH ... I should have gone in :nuts:

PLEASE FEEL FREE TO LAUGH AT ME - IF I GET BURNED

but for now I'd ride the dream to the pot of gold.
 
There's no reward without risk. I think we're closer to the bottom then
some think. But the money on the sidelines won't budge until they see
a truly good reason. Once they do, look out ! I'll be a jump we won't
soon forget and over several days. I'm hoping not to miss but one of
them. The first one. Good Luck my Friend, your the best ! ;)
 
lacaprup said:
I took the plunge today too. 100% into the C-Fund with a plan to get out tomorrow.
Click to expand...

ONE DAY GAINS are the way to go - and the only way to go in this day and age.

Let's hope we rake it in... but the odds of another big loss is pretty small... yet I think we're going down a lot further before it's all done.

squalebear said:
There's no reward without risk.

Actually I see the News Media flooding Alevin at the end of the year and asking how she ended up as #1.

"Well I noticed the boys were getting pretty aggressive and decided I'd just stay in SAFETY and make my little gains :D

I think we're closer to the bottom then some think.

The White House officials and all the KEY Economic mega players and little ole me - don't see the bottom until at least a minimum 6 months and that's only if we keep moving at today's pace on a fairly regular basis.

I'd say we would be extremely fortunate if a bottom is achieved in 6 months. Many are now looking to 2010 :( (sad - but true)

But the money on the sidelines won't budge until they see a truly good reason.

Unfortunately THAT MONEY does not play like us - but actually that makes a lot of sense because if they did they'd more than likely be 15% or better under water.

The money on the sides is going to be increasingly convinced the side lines is the place to be and they are not about to budge until things really do turn around.

Silverbird's comment today is RIGHT ON TARGET - and is very in line with what will likely determine how the future Economy and Markets take off.

Once they do, look out ! I'll be a jump we won't soon forget and over several days. I'm hoping not to miss but one of them.

Squalebear - I'm afraid most of us are in for a very disappointing year or two - I think a bottom will eventually be easy to acknowledge but THAT WILL LIKELY ROLL FOR QUITE AWHILE (OR DRAG ON) before traction takes place.

The first one. Good Luck my Friend, your the best ! ;)
Click to expand...

Thanks SB - I may LUCK OUT or I may get burned but I'm just the Tooth Ferry's janitor that cleans up the stuff under the pillows and gives a little disinfectant spray...so I'm hardly the best... but thanks for the compliment. :)
 
squalebear said:
May that Dead Cat, Bounce higher then your greatest expectations ! ;)
Click to expand...


Thank you so much Squalebear :)


The S Fund measured 5.6 on the Rector Scale - so there may be some after shocks that cause even heavier damage. :worried::sick:

I think any chace of a lift - has to be a DEAD CAT - but either way NO MATTER how things turn out ...

I sincerely appreciate your thoughtfulness !!!

All of us are fortunate to have you with us.

Have a great night my GREAT little brother,

Steady
 
steadygain said:
thank you so much squalebear :)


the s fund measured 5.6 on the rector scale - so there may be some after shocks that cause even heavier damage. :worried::sick:

i think any chace of a lift - has to be a dead cat - but either way no matter how things turn out ...

i sincerely appreciate your thoughtfulness !!!

all of us are fortunate to have you with us.

have a great night my great little brother,

steady
Click to expand...

A great night it will be !

By the way, my son is going to have a baby girl in june/july.

Pop-pop squalebear is something i'm going to have to get use to.

Thought some good news would add a smile to your day !
 
squalebear said:
A great night it will be !

By the way, my son is going to have a baby girl in june/july.

Pop-pop squalebear is something i'm going to have to get use to.

Thought some good news would add a smile to your day !
Click to expand...


That's WONDERFUL!!

Congratulations :toung:;)

I hope she is like one of mine - someone you will adore with every waking minute.

Well - I'm sure Lady could give you all the details on the wonderful blessings of have grandchildren. It has to be one of the greatest honors and blessings possible and deep down Ann and I long for that day ourselves.

LIFE is BEAUTIFUL - VERY BEAUTIFUL !!

Good night to all - turning out the lights
 
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