Squalebear's Account Talk

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -17.65%.....C=...-16.29%....-04.96% (my figures):confused:
DW.= -14.11%.....S=.. -12.26%....
EFA= -23.07%......I=...-22.30%...
AGG= -01.94%.....F=...+01.44%...
...........................G=...+02.81%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -05.25%.....C=...-05.10%....-05.51% (my figures):confused:
DW.= -06.36%.....S=.. -05.69%....
EFA= -04.31%.....I=....-05.19%...
AGG= -01.51%.....F=.. -00.71%...
...........................G=...+00.26%..
 
Dude. I own a minivan. I'm not proud of it and I definitly don't drive it to work. The older I get, the less I want to be seen it it. I have dreams of owning a manly jeep and driving down the road with the top off, wind running though my thinning hair... . :(

I have a full size conversion van and proud of it.:D urgh! urgh! urgh!

May the force be with us.:cool:
 
2009 FEHB Premium Rates
September 25, 2008

According to the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), enrollees with self-only coverage will pay, on average, $4.83 more each pay period (about $125 per year) next year.​

Family coverage will cost an average $11.12 more per pay period. FEHB enrollees pay - on average - 30 percent of the total cost of a plan's premium, while the government pays 70 percent. Premiums, including the government share and the enrollee share, will increase an average 7.0 percent next year. Overall, the average enrollee share of the premium will increase 7.9 percent. Twenty percent of FEHB enrollees would see their share of premiums rise by less than 5.0 percent, based on 2008 enrollment data, states OPM. OPM also notes that enrollees in the Blue Cross Blue Shield Standard Option, the most popular FEHB plan choice, would see their share of the premium increase 12.9 percent for self-only coverage and 13.4 percent for self and family coverage.​

"I appreciate the tough environment in which the FEHB Program currently operates," said Nancy Kichak, OPM's Associate Director for Strategic Human Resources Policy. "While we worked very hard to contain premium costs -- and we were more successful with some health plans than with others -- federal employees and retirees can take comfort in knowing they are enrolled in a solid program that provides outstanding benefits and customer service." Enrollees in Coventry Healthcare of Kansas (standard option, self and family plan) will see their premium share drop by 49.5 percent; others will see increases up to 173 percent.

"One hallmark of the FEHB Program is 'choice', meaning employees and retirees can use the Open Season to shop among plans and, perhaps, move to one that better meets their medical and financial needs," said Kay Ely, OPM's Associate Director for Human Resources Products and Services.
OPM conducts an annual Open Season to give federal employees and retirees the opportunity to select a new health plan; during the Open Season, current federal employees who are not enrolled may elect FEHB coverage. The Open Season also gives employees and retirees the chance to select supplemental dental and/or vision coverage. The 2009 Federal Benefits Open Season begins on Monday, November 10, 2008, and runs through Monday, December 8, 2008.

The Open Season also gives employees the opportunity to elect coverage under a tax-deferred Flexible Spending Account (FSA) for health care and/or dependent care, or to adjust an existing FSA. Current FSA enrollees must re-enroll for coverage in 2009 during the Open Season. In 2007, nearly 246,000 individuals had a Flexible Spending Account. By law, retirees are not eligible for FSA benefits.

The Open Season also can be used by employees and retirees to enroll in supplemental dental and/or vision insurance coverage. In 2008 -- in its second year of availability -- the Federal Employees Dental and Vision Insurance Program (FEDVIP) had more than 1 million enrollments.
In early November, OPM will provide more information that will help enrollees to compare the costs and benefits of different plans, plus details on the dental and visions plans.

http://www.myfederalretirement.com/public/280.cfm
 
SB,

Thanks for the "Public Service Announcement". :)

Wish I was sitting on the lilly pad right now, but I got to play the hand I dealt myself at the beginning of the month.:(

May the force be with us.:cool:
 
SB,

Thanks for the "Public Service Announcement".
Wish I was sitting on the lilly pad right now, but I got to play the hand I dealt myself at the beginning of the month.

May the force be with us.

No You Don't , You Stubborn Mule ! :mad:
Please be careful, It might get worse before it gets better ! :worried:
Or,,,,,, You'll fool them all and become Richer then you ever imagined ! ;)
Oh yes, your welcome !
 
No You Don't , You Stubborn Mule ! :mad:
Stubborn is probably the right word but all that red on my spreadsheet will only stay red if I sell out. I just have to decide how much loss I can accept.
Please be careful, It might get worse before it gets better ! :worried:
Thanks, I appreciate that (the be careful part). Some people I am talking to are looking at today as a possible Black Friday all over again. I have a different opinion. I think we may see a slightly positive day today. Next week will be interesting for sure.
Or,,,,,, You'll fool them all and become Richer then you ever imagined ! ;)
That would be wishful thinking. There is still a disturbance in the Force and our future is unsure.
Oh yes, your welcome!
Any time.


May the force be with us.:cool:
 
YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2262 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.63%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = 0.3981 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.31%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA = 0.2149 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.12%:)

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/25/08) +0.7622% -0.4063 tsp cents
(8/26/08) -0.4230% -0.3220 tsp cents
(8/27/08) -0.5610% -0.2106 tsp cents
(8/28/08) +0.3609% -0.2877 tsp cents
(8/29/08) +0.2044% -0.3291 tsp cents
WEEKLY +0.3435% +0.0730 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/01/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY
(9/02/08) +0.6546% -0.4584 tsp cents
(9/03/08) -0.8790% -0.2772 tsp cents
(9/04/08) +0.6018% -0.3826 tsp cents
(9/05/08) -0.5642% -0.2717 tsp cents
WEEKLY -0.1868% -0.0574 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/08/08) +0.1989% -0.3171 tsp cents
(9/09/08) +0.0157% -0.3098 tsp cents
(9/10/08) -0.1535% -0.2831 tsp cents
(9/11/08) -0.1739% -0.2491 tsp cents
(9/12/08) -0.3907% -0.1778 tsp cents
WEEKLY -0.3685% -0.0939 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/15/08) +0.8638% -0.3323 tsp cents
(9/16/08) -0.2278% -0.2873 tsp cents
(9/17/08) +0.8268% -0.4262 tsp cents
(9/18/08) -2.0361% -0.0642 tsp cents
(9/19/08) -0.4960%+0.0283 tsp cents
WEEKLY. -1.4600% -0.1495 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/22/08) +2.5382% -0.4628 tsp cents
(9/23/08) -0.8997% -0.2822 tsp cents
(9/24/08) -0.2518% -0.2347 tsp cents
(9/25/08) -0.5076% -0.1412 tsp cents
(9/26/08) +0.3903% -0.2149 tsp cents:)
WEEKLY. +0.7734%+0.1866 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met):)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (??????????????????)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -17.39%.....C=...-16.01%....-04.95% (my figures):)
DW.= -14.67%.....S=.. -12.74%....
EFA= -23.89%......I=...-22.82%...
AGG= -02.43%.....F=...+01.29%...
...........................G=...+02.82%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -04.93%.....C=...-04.76%....-05.50% (my figures):confused:
DW.= -07.01%.....S=.. -06.24%....
EFA= -05.37%.....I=....-05.86%...
AGG= -02.02%.....F=.. -00.86%...
...........................G=...+00.27%..
 
A final thought for today. The media, country and the world have been
focused on the Financial Solutions that our Government is trying to
negotiate (or not). Lets not forget the rest of the story. Economics,
Earnings, Housing, Employment and a plethora of other things need to
be remembered over the long term for investors. Catching a pop will be
excellant for those who take the risk. The questions will be; for how long
and for how much? I'd love to think we can see new YTD highs before the
years out. But how realistic is that. What kind of affect will the New Deal
hold for the future and our investment portfolio's. I can see that some
are hoping for a mid-week passing of the Legislation to be able to take
advantage of the pop (if it happens). Maybe the (I) Fund will lag and
the opportunity might come by way of the International Fund. In any
case, we should keep some powder dry. Everyone have a great weekend
and I'll be checking in from time to time to say hi ! ;)
 
O/D TRACKER PRIOR TO THE REVERSAL TO THE OVERPAYMENT SIDE:
(05/12/08) -.2580% +0.0500 tsp cents
(05/13/08)+.3240% +
0.1300 tsp cents
(05/14/08) -.2920% +0.0600 tsp cents
(05/15/08)+.0790% +
0.0800 tsp cents
(05/16/08)+.0990% +
0.1000 tsp cents
(05/19/08) -.4080% . 0.0000 tsp cents
(05/20/08)+.0690% +0.0200 tsp cents
(05/21/08)+.2140% +0.0400 tsp cents
(05/22/08)+.1250% +
0.0700 tsp cents
(05/23/08)+.2330% +0.0100 tsp cents
(05/26/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)
(05/27/08)+.7570% +0.1900 tsp cents
(05/28/08) -.5150% +
0.0700 tsp cents
(05/29/08)+.2790% +
0.1400 tsp cents
(05/30/08) -.0220% +
0.1400 tsp cents
(06/02/08) -.7100% +0.0300 tsp cents
(06/03/08)+.6240% +
0.1200 tsp cents
(06/04/08) -.1600% +
0.0800 tsp cents
(06/05/08) -.0300% +
0.0700 tsp cents
(06/06/08) -.2150% +0.0200 tsp cents
(06/09/08)+.4200% +
0.1200 tsp cents
(06/10/08) -.1520% +
0.0800 tsp cents
(06/11/08)+.1210% +
0.1100 tsp cents
(06/12/08) -.1260% +
0.0800 tsp cents
(06/13/08)+.1210% +
0.1100 tsp cents
(06/16/08)+.2030% +
0.1600 tsp cents
(06/17/08) -.3550% +
0.0700 tsp cents
(06/18/08) -.0810% +0.0600 tsp cents
(06/19/08)+.9470% +
0.2700 tsp cents
(06/20/08) -.5870% +
0.1300 tsp cents
(06/23/08)+.1660% +
0.1700 tsp cents
(06/24/08) -.5430% +0.0500 tsp cents...........OVERPAYMENT SIDE REVERSAL
 
O/D TRACKER AFTER THE REVERSAL TO THE OVERPAYMENT SIDE (PART A):
(06/25/08)+1.9380% -0.3800 tsp cents
(06/26/08)+0.2140% -0.4200 tsp cents
(06/27/08)+0.1470% -
0.4600 tsp cents
(06/30/08) -0.1100% -
0.4354 tsp cents
(07/01/08) -0.3600% -
0.3083 tsp cents
(07/02/08) +0.1500% -
0.3404 tsp cents
(07/03/08) -0.0400% -
0.3332 tsp cents
(07/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)
(07/07/08)+0.8020% -0.5058 tsp cents
(07/08/08) -1.1409% -
0.2585 tsp cents
(07/09/08)+0.7940% -
0.4264 tsp cents
(07/10/08) -0.7860% -
0.2592 tsp cents
(07/11/08)+0.4570% -
0.3527 tsp cents
(07/14/08)+0.3970% -
0.4372 tsp cents
(07/15/08) -0.5080% -
0.3229 tsp cents
(07/16/08) -0.3206% -
0.2605 tsp cents
(07/17/08) -0.2940% -
0.2013 tsp cents
(07/18/08) -0.2422% -0.1504 tsp cents
(07/21/08)+0.7334% -
0.3109 tsp cents
(07/22/08) -0.7174% -0.1553 tsp cents
(07/23/08)+0.5982% -
0.2868 tsp cents
(07/24/08)+0.4519% -
0.3797 tsp cents
(07/25/08) -0.5288% -
0.2868 tsp cents
(07/28/08)+0.4966% -
0.3660 tsp cents
(07/29/08) -0.3038% -
0.3039 tsp cents
(07/30/08)+0.2671% -
0.3650 tsp cents
(07/31/08) -0.1610% -
0.3266 tsp cents
 
O/D TRACKER AFTER THE REVERSAL TO THE OVERPAYMENT SIDE (PART B):
(08/01/08)+0.4469% -0.4172 tsp cents
(08/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(08/05/08) -0.6135% -
0.2821 tsp cents
(08/06/08) -0.1200% -
0.2564 tsp cents
(08/07/08)+0.4625% -
0.3490 tsp cents
(08/08/08) -0.1342% -
0.3219 tsp cents
(08/11/08)+0.5724% -
0.4440 tsp cents
(08/12/08) -0.0567% -
0.4287 tsp cents
(08/13/08) -0.7199% -
0.2719 tsp cents
(08/14/08)+0.6715% -
0.4104 tsp cents
(08/15/08) -0.1735% -
0.3715 tsp cents
(08/18/08)+0.0903% -
0.3882 tsp cents
(08/19/08) -0.4733% -
0.2878 tsp cents
(08/20/08) -0.1002% -
0.2692 tsp cents
(08/21/08) -0.1488% -
0.2401 tsp cents
(08/22/08)+0.0729% -
0.2561 tsp cents
(08/25/08)+0.7622% -
0.4063 tsp cents
(08/26/08) -0.4230% -
0.3220 tsp cents
(08/27/08) -0.5610% -
0.2106 tsp cents
(08/28/08)+0.3609% -
0.2877 tsp cents
(08/29/08)+0.2044% -
0.3291 tsp cents
(09/01/08)
FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)
(09/02/08)+0.6546% -0.4584 tsp cents
(09/03/08) -0.8790% -
0.2772 tsp cents
(09/04/08)+0.6018% -
0.3826 tsp cents
(09/05/08) -0.5642% -
0.2717 tsp cents
(09/08/08)+0.1989% -
0.3171 tsp cents
(09/09/08)+0.0157% -
0.3098 tsp cents
(09/10/08) -0.1535% -
0.2831 tsp cents
(09/11/08) -0.1739% -
0.2491 tsp cents
(09/12/08) -0.3907% -0.1778 tsp cents
(09/15/08)+0.8638% -
0.3323 tsp cents
(09/16/08) -0.2278% -
0.2873 tsp cents
(09/17/08)+0.8268% -
0.4262 tsp cents
(09/18/08) -2.0361% -0.0642 tsp cents
(09/19/08)-0.4960% +0.0283 tsp cents...TEMPORARY REVERSAL
(09/22/08)+2.5382% -
0.4628 tsp cents
(09/23/08) -0.8997% -
0.2822 tsp cents
(09/24/08) -0.2518% -
0.2347 tsp cents
(09/25/08) -0.5676% -0.1412 tsp cents
(09/26/08)+0.7734% -
0.2149 tsp cents
 
With all of this information at my disposal, I've wanted to (never got the
chance) study this info for possible Buy Signals that actually work. But
I'm not even sure if the information is even useful. I know I've used it to
help me pick and choose if I wanted anything invested in the (I) Fund.
But that was before the Reversal into the Overpayment Side and before
IFT limits were imposed. If anyone has something to add towards why
this information has been useful to them, please post it here. Maybe I'm
missing something that I never thought of. Maybe I've gotten to close
to the trees and lost sight of the forrest (the big picture). In any case,
I seek feedback. Any and all would be greatly appreciated. ;)
 
Where to invest in a post-bailout world
By Jonathan Burton, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Wall Street is bound to get its bailout, in one form or another. The government's rescue package will be costly to taxpayers, politically controversial -- and quite possibly not the last. It will also dramatically change the landscape for U.S. stock investors.


The bailout has a singular task: to grease the locked wheels of the financial system and get credit moving again. What investors need to remember is that even if this plan works, the deep problems plaguing homeowners, consumers and the broader economy won't magically disappear. The Troubled Asset Relief Plan isn't called TARP for no reason. It is intended to avert a flood of Depression-era size, but the ground around us will still be soaked.

Where to put your money

To handle these challenges in the months and perhaps years ahead, investors will need a rescue plan of their own. Ironically it also hinges on the Federal Reserve. With both the Fed and the Treasury pulling out their full arsenal to shore up the banks, the old adage "Don't fight the Fed" is even more apt today. The Fed is trumpeting that it is on the side of both the economy and investors. The message is clear: Follow the money. Focus on the areas of the market that stand to benefit from the government's largesse. Here are some places to look:

1. U.S. stocks; European bonds. After relying on international markets to boost returns for several years, U.S. investors can go home again. U.S. stocks haven't fallen nearly as much this year as counterparts overseas.

2. Small-caps; Economic troubles abroad and relatively better growth in the U.S. benefit small-cap stocks, which tend to be domestically focused. At a time when Americans are looking inward, trying literally to get their own house in order, smaller companies have an edge over giant multinationals and exporters.

3. Financials; The government's intervention is aimed at resuscitating the financial sector. That won't be its only rescue action. Look for the Fed to cut interest rates before year-end, and taxpayers may get another round of rebate checks to encourage spending. All of which should be good for financial services. "You will see bank stocks and financial stocks rally," said William Rutherford, a Portland, Ore. investment adviser. "There's plenty of money on the sidelines, and that will be one of the first places investors look."

4. Consumer goods; Consumer companies -- particularly those with mostly U.S. operations -- are strong defensive plays now and will share in an economic recovery. Mutual funds dedicated to the consumer-staples sector, for example, rose 3.9% in the past three months.

5. Health care; The health-care sector typically holds up in a slowing economy, and this time is no different; the average health-care fund added 3% in the past three months. Another catalyst for health-care investing is that the credit crunch may have quashed the political clouds overhanging the industry. Any federal health-care reforms are likely to be less grand in scale, Dorsey said. "The political fears of health-care reform have been way overblown," he added. "Health care is as attractive as it ever was."

To read the entire article go to:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={53B4C129-429C-4166-B965-E9B51F745AA4}
 
ECONOMIC PREVIEW
Weakness will be just tip of the iceberg

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy is headed into rough seas and important economic indicators to be released in the next five days will show weakness, but the data are expected to be just the tips of the icebergs of the sharp slowdown lurking just out of sight, economists said.


"The trend is getting weaker -- momentum is fading," said James O'Sullivan, economist at UBS in New York. But the data this week surely won't be as bad as October data, he said. The full impact of the credit crunch will be felt in the October data, O'Sullivan added. The push by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson for government rescue of the financial sector has captivated headlines and obscured "consistently deteriorating economic data," said Richard Moody chief economist at Mission Residential Research.

The first iceberg of September data is the Institute of Supply Management survey of manufacturers released on Wednesday at 10 a.m. EDT. The survey is widely regarded as an excellent gauge of business sentiment and conditions.

So far this year, the ISM report has been holding up fairly well. The index has been averaging just below 50, not so bad given all the talk of recession. For September, the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists is for the index to slip to 49.8 in September from 49.9 in August. Hints of weakness came in several of the regional manufacturing surveys released earlier this month.

Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors, said the ISM factory index is stable in part because the worst of the summer auto plant downsizings are now over.

The second iceberg will be the unemployment report on Friday. It is the one of the best and broadest gauges of current economic conditions. Economists expect job losses to be the weakest so far this year. The economy has shed jobs every month this year. Economists expect job losses to accelerate in September to 85,000, just a bit worse than 84,000 jobs lost in August.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...3E-BB00-4914-B846-C8DC032F47B8}&dist=hplatest
 
Congress, White House reach financial bailout deal

WASHINGTON - Congressional leaders and the Bush administration reached a tentative deal early Sunday on a landmark bailout of imperiled financial markets whose collapse could plunge the nation into a deep recession.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the $700 billion accord just after midnight Saturday but said it still has to be put on paper.
"We've still got more to do to finalize it, but I think we're there," said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who also participated in the negotiations in the Capitol.
"We worked out everything," said Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., the chief Senate Republican in the talks. He said the House should be able to vote on it Sunday, and the Senate could take it up Monday.
The plan calls for the Treasury Department to buy deeply distressed mortgage-backed securities and other bad debts held by banks and other investors. The money should help troubled lenders make new loans and keep credit lines open. The government would later try to sell the discounted loan packages at the best possible price.
At the insistence of House Republicans, some money would be devoted to a program that would encourage holders of distressed mortgage-backed securities to keep them and buy government insurance to cover defaults.
The legislation would place limits on severance packages for executives of companies that benefit from the rescue plan, but details were sketchy.
Also, the government would receive stock warrants in return for the bailout relief, giving taxpayers a chance to share in financial companies' future profits.
To help struggling homeowners, the plan requires the government to try renegotiating the bad mortgages it acquires with the aim of lowering borrowers' monthly payments so they can keep their homes.
 
Congress, White House reach financial bailout deal

WASHINGTON - Congressional leaders and the Bush administration reached a tentative deal early Sunday on a landmark bailout of imperiled financial markets whose collapse could plunge the nation into a deep recession.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the $700 billion accord just after midnight Saturday but said it still has to be put on paper. "We've still got more to do to finalize it, but I think we're there," said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who also participated in the negotiations in the Capitol.

"We worked out everything," said Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., the chief Senate Republican in the talks. He said the House should be able to vote on it Sunday, and the Senate could take it up Monday. The plan calls for the Treasury Department to buy deeply distressed mortgage-backed securities and other bad debts held by banks and other investors. The money should help troubled lenders make new loans and keep credit lines open. The government would later try to sell the discounted loan packages at the best possible price.

At the insistence of House Republicans, some money would be devoted to a program that would encourage holders of distressed mortgage-backed securities to keep them and buy government insurance to cover defaults. The legislation would place limits on severance packages for executives of companies that benefit from the rescue plan, but details were sketchy. Also, the government would receive stock warrants in return for the bailout relief, giving taxpayers a chance to share in financial companies' future profits.

To help struggling homeowners, the plan requires the government to try renegotiating the bad mortgages it acquires with the aim of lowering borrowers' monthly payments so they can keep their homes.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080928/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown;_ylt=Ah3DqB9yIb8jk9fEbEbr4X2yBhIF
 
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