Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

I am not concerned about missing a rally over the next couple weeks. Anyone participating in a rally will eventually get slaughtered.

Not if they hit and run ! But a miss will be painful as hell and the pitcher
has been throwing some wild S%^$ at us lately. :blink:

CP, its truly good to see you stop by and kabits for a moment. You've
developed a real following and rightfully so. Keep up the great work and
stop by more often. I'll do the same.

 

[Guest2]

REAL NICE SURGE IN THE US MARKET FUTURES
DOW = +1.13%
NASDAQ = +1.21%
S&P500 = +1.52%​

A dramatic change in the Asian Markets !
Hang Seng Closed "Unchanged"
Hong Kong Red Chips are up +2.70%
Japan Closed -2.22%
FTSE is up +1.51%
Austrialia Closed at -2.47%

Future Contracts are no gaurantee to having a good day, but its a great start ! Good Luck !​

 

[Guest2]

JUST A FINAL THOUGHT BEFORE I GO HOME:

If by 11:30am we are up 2%,,,,,,I ponder what I might do for Friday.

Lets see now,
Friday +1% Monday -4% Tuesday +1% Wednesday -4%

Hmmmmmmmmmm ! HIT AND RUN BABY,,,,,,,,HIT AND RUN ! :nuts:

 

[Guest2]

This rally has very little hope of withstanding the facts. I see it ending as
fast as it came today. Don't think its because of the world wide monetary
and beef injections that the US is spreading. Maybe the Shorts are now
contributing to such a rise. The new Short Selling Rules go into effect
today. I give this rally until noon, if I'm wrong, then until 3:30pm est.
Of coarse, this is just my humble opinion and I don't wish it to be so.

 

[Guest2]

This rally has very little hope of withstanding the facts. I see it ending as fast as it came today. Don't think its because of the world wide monetary and beef injections that the US is spreading. Maybe the Shorts are now contributing to such a rise. The new Short Selling Rules go into effect today. I give this rally until noon, if I'm wrong, then until 3:30pm est. Of coarse, this is just my humble opinion and I don't wish it to be so.

Wow, I guess thats why I don't get paid to prognosticate
future market activity and why I felt the need the write a
disclaimer as my signature.​

CRAMMER EVEN SAID;
"I KNOW NOTHING"​

There's only one more thing to say, congratulation to
the few and the proud who endured bad news and
made a killing today on speculation. Remember, buy
on the rumor and sell on the news might still be
the way to handle this whole thing. But what do I know?

STILL WAITING FOR THE PRICE UPDATE !​

 

[presskh]

I hope so too my friend. But one would have to ask; What would be the
catayst ? Economic News ? Earnings ? The Fed ? The Treasurey Dept ?
Maybe the oversold conditions could result in a rebound of sorts. But
that would take Confidence in the Financial Structure of this country and
that (I'm sorry to say) has been shaken and not stirred (J.Bond reference)
to the very core of its foundation. From the bottom of my heart, I wish
you nothing but "Green". Just remember, it could go lower (much lower).

Gee, let me see.... how about a big government-sponsored RTC-style entity to take over all the bad debt?

Just kidding and lucky, so far - you never know what tomorrow will bring.

 

[JTH]

STILL WAITING FOR THE PRICE UPDATE !​

Funny thing is, I've been in the Red & Black multiple times this month. For MTD, EOD today I expect to be tied with the G-Fund. Now funny is that? :cheesy:

 

[Guest2]

Gee, let me see.... how about a big government-sponsored RTC-style entity to take over all the bad debt?

Just kidding and lucky, so far - you never know what tomorrow will bring.

Luck has it's place when trading. Japan tried the same thing and failed.
Hopefully, something solid will come out of this and we can all gain more
confidence in our Risk Assessment's and our Portfolio's future. As for me,
I'm just scared to death and don't believe this is the fix all that the US
Market so desperately needs. I'm hoping for the best and expecting the
worse at this point!

I'M STILL WAITING FOR THE TSP PRICE UPDATE,,,,,BOY IT'S LATE !

 

[Guest2]

Funny thing is, I've been in the Red & Black multiple times this month. For MTD, EOD today I expect to be tied with the G-Fund. Now funny is that? :cheesy:

MTD, the SPX is down -5.66% with possibly more room for recovery !
Good Luck tomorrow, I hope it bring you good fortune and lots of $$$

 

[Guest2]

Duty calls and i can't wait much longer for the price update.
I'm sure i'll post it sometime tonight for those who follow it.
In the mean time, a whole hearted congratulation again to the
members who jumped in for today. For those who've been in for
a while, you still have hope to regain those very scary losses.

 

[JTH]

MTD, the SPX is down -5.66% with possibly more room for recovery !
Good Luck tomorrow, I hope it bring you good fortune and lots of $$$

Thanks SB, my 25% S has kept me from sinking too fast, and that's why I've been able to stay in this market and sleep well at night.

Hey did you see Jeff Macky on the intro to Fast Money? That was some funny stuff!!!

 

[Guest2]

Thanks SB, my 25% S has kept me from sinking too fast, and that's why I've been able to stay in this market and sleep well at night.

Hey did you see Jeff Macky on the intro to Fast Money? That was some funny stuff!!!

Its uniform time for me, I missed it ! Why don't you post a little of what
he said on my thread and I'll catch up a little later. I'm truly interested.
I think he's the best and funny as hell ! I'll check back soon !

 

[Birchtree]

Macky was laughing off his pain because he was shorting into this market and lost his socks.

 

[JTH]

Its uniform time for me, I missed it ! Why don't you post a little of what
he said on my thread and I'll catch up a little later. I'm truly interested.
I think he's the best and funny as hell ! I'll check back soon !

Jeff spent the day shorting with SDS first thing in the morning. Then when the Brits declared a stop to shortselling, he shorted it some more and was happy as can be.

In reference to the the end of day third wave upswing

"Didn't see the third one coming" :cheesy:

 

[presskh]

Luck has it's place when trading. Japan tried the same thing and failed.
Hopefully, something solid will come out of this and we can all gain more
confidence in our Risk Assessment's and our Portfolio's future. As for me,
I'm just scared to death and don't believe this is the fix all that the US
Market so desperately needs. I'm hoping for the best and expecting the
worse at this point!

I'M STILL WAITING FOR THE TSP PRICE UPDATE,,,,,BOY IT'S LATE !

I don't think a RTC-type takeover will solve all problems either and don't really believe this is "the" bottom, given the financial straits the US is in, both private and government. You know, you have to think, if the great economic expansion "bubble" we were in since about 2003 was driven, in large part, by people taking on way more debt than they could afford, then it was really an unsustainable expansion. Even if the new RTC-type entity takes over a large portion of the bad debt, consumers will still not be able to be as free-borrowing/spending as they previously were, which translates into no or very slow growth. I think we may be in for some version of the 70's.

 

[Guest2]

I can't do the O/D Tracker update from my location.
I'll be posting it sometime between 7:30am and 8am.

Macky didn't see it coming aye. Well, now I don't feel
so bad, because I certainly didn't see it coming either.

Maybe he didn't sell and the Fix All Plan will fail. That
will drive the market even further down then it was
and he'll be the smartest man on earth. Just guessing ! :cheesy:

 

[Guest2]

BIG SURPRISED ! THE FUND MANAGERS SWIPE MORE THEN 2% FROM THE
POSSIBLE (I) FUND GAINS AND PAYBACK THE OVERPAYMENT. I GUESS
THEY THINK THE TSP PARTICIPANTS WOULD BE HAPPY ENOUGH WITH
A +2.51% GAIN ON THURSDAY, WHEN THE EFA GAINED A WHOPPING
+4.55%. WHAT A RIPOFF. THE OVERPAYMENT IS NOW IN THE "NOT
SEEN TOO OFTER" (BLACK) AREA. THIS IS WHERE IT BELONGED ALL
SUMMMER LONG. MAYBE WE'RE SEEING A REVERSAL SOON. IT WOULDN'T
SURPRISE ME TO SEE A DEFICIT SIDE REVERSAL, NOT AT ALL. LETS
HOPE THE (I) FUND WILL NOW STABLIZE WITHOUT SUCH LARGE SWINGS
IN THE O/D TRACKER. BY THE WAY, GUESS WHICH FUND HIT THE "RED"
AREA OF THE O/D TRACKER. HERE'S A HINT; SSSSSSSssssssssss

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2188 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.58%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.4237 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.41%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA = 0.0642 TSP Cent Overpayment or +0.35%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents
(8/22/08) +0.0729% -0.2561 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5591% -0.1154 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/25/08) +0.7622% -0.4063 tsp cents
(8/26/08) -0.4230% -0.3220 tsp cents
(8/27/08) -0.5610% -0.2106 tsp cents
(8/28/08) +0.3609% -0.2877 tsp cents
(8/29/08) +0.2044% -0.3291 tsp cents
WEEKLY +0.3435% +0.0730 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/01/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY
(9/02/08) +0.6546% -0.4584 tsp cents
(9/03/08) -0.8790% -0.2772 tsp cents
(9/04/08) +0.6018% -0.3826 tsp cents
(9/05/08) -0.5642% -0.2717 tsp cents
WEEKLY -0.1868% -0.0574 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/08/08) +0.1989% -0.3171 tsp cents
(9/09/08) +0.0157% -0.3098 tsp cents
(9/10/08) -0.1535% -0.2831 tsp cents
(9/11/08) -0.1739% -0.2491 tsp cents
(9/12/08) -0.3907% -0.1778 tsp cents
WEEKLY -0.3685% -0.0939 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/15/08) +0.8638% -0.3323 tsp cents
(9/16/08) -0.2278% -0.2873 tsp cents
(9/17/08) +0.8268% -0.4262 tsp cents
(9/18/08) -2.0361% -0.0642 tsp cents


THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -17.83%.....C=...-16.49%....-04.85% (my figures)
DW.=-13.13%......S=.. -11.08%....
EFA= -26.47%......I=...-26.08%...
AGG=-00.61%......F=...+02.63%...
...........................G=...+02.74%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -05.66%.....C=...-05.53%....-05.41% (my figures)
DW.=-05.49%......S=...-04.62%....
EFA= -09.17%.....I=....-10.43%...
AGG=-00.19%......F=.. +00.45%...
...........................G=...+00.19%..

 

[Guest2]

I just want to repeat something one more time. The FTSE is UP over 8%
and I want to see the (I) Funder's get every penny of it, period. It would
be a travisty if the fund managers allow a O/D reversal and the (I) Fund
underperforms the EFA again and we fall into the Deficit area within the
O/D Tracker ! Come On Barclays, they're both down -26% for the year
for goodness sakes (I want to curse). Give some of us TSP participants
a bone, will ya ! They deserve it after this summer of rollercoaster rides.
Do the right thing and give them every penny without moving the damn
tracker today ! There, I said it ! Thats how I feel ! Wow, I better lay off
the caffiene for a while ! I'm getting dizzy ! By the way, if anyone doesn't
think I'm pissed for running out of IFT's ,,,, boy ,,,, let me tell ya !

 

[presskh]

Well, I bailed back to the lilly pad today COB. I'm probably missing out on some gains next week, but I'm trying to maintain some discipline in my investing approach: Wait for long term signals to turn before being primarily in the stock funds. For now, since we are still technically in a bear market, my strategy has been to be primarily in the G fund, with some quick two or three day raids into stocks to catch a bounce.