Squalebear's Account Talk

[XL-entLady]

Even though I believe we'll come off these levels this afternoon, I still think
it's going to be a heck of a day. I've decided to take some risk off the table.
Not alot, but 35% out of risk will satisfy me if we see profit taking come
Monday or an extension of this Rally.

New Allocations Will Be:
(G)35%
(F)05%
(C)35%
(S)10%
(.I)20%

HAPPY GOOD FRIDAY,,,and,,,HAPPY EASTER EVERYONE !

So far, my friend, this has been a Good Friday a day early!

Lady

 

[RonUSPSretired]

Any idea if the rally will continue Monday or will the profit taking dominate and give some consolidation?

 

[nasa1974]

Any idea if the rally will continue Monday or will the profit taking dominate and give some consolidation?

If I had that crystal ball I wouldn't have moved 45% into G this morning.

 

[WorkFE]

Ron,
NASA just answered your question, profit taking has begun.
But we've seen this before, early monday will be a down day and if it is truly a continuation of the recent uptrend we will finish flat to slightly up. Unless you moved COB today I guess you and I will find out next week

 

[Birchtree]

I believe we are now playing with bull market rules and the financials will lead me to the promised land. I have a toxic waste portfolio of those stocks that I bought last year and today they were liberating. There will continue to be denials over the next few months as we move higher - with a 105% potential gain to the rally money will flow when the VIX is in the mid-twenties and of course near the top of the intermediate term move. I can here the thundering herd getting ready to stampede.

 

[nasa1974]

Ron,
NASA just answered your question, profit taking has begun.
But we've seen this before, early monday will be a down day and if it is truly a continuation of the recent uptrend we will finish flat to slightly up. Unless you moved COB today I guess you and I will find out next week

Next week will be a tough decision since I am all out of IFT's for the month.

1) If the market starts to sell off do I hold my position and follow the market down hoping it will rally mid to end of the month (hopefully breaking even or maybe a slight profit) or keep pulling back to G and start the <1% option.

2) The market continues the rally into a full run bull and I can be happy making money with my smaller percentages until May gives me 2 new IFT's

:nuts::blink::suspicious:

 

[Medic72]

Birchtree, "I can here the thundering herd getting ready to stampede."

<3 for Birch and his quotes!

I think i am gonna start a book of birch quotes LOL!

Oh yeah, I told yall on my thread yesterday that the bear was backing up from the Power of the Bull

 

[Guest2]

I believe we are now playing with bull market rules and the financials will lead me to the promised land. I have a toxic waste portfolio of those stocks that I bought last year and today they were liberating. There will continue to be denials over the next few months as we move higher - with a 105% potential gain to the rally money will flow when the VIX is in the mid-twenties and of course near the top of the intermediate term move. I can here the thundering herd getting ready to stampede.

Watch those horns, they're sharp ! Great day for most of us. This
MB seems to have a life of its own when the market springs to green.

If I had that crystal ball I wouldn't have moved 45% into G this morning.

I took 35% off the table, but after a S&P 856.56 close, 900 isn't out of
the rhelm of possiblity (sometime in April). I did so because I'm leaning on
the Market coming to it's senses and remembering the trouble the U.S.
Economy has instore for us. With every tick up, I'll be tilting towards
pulling yet more off the table. Eventually I'll announce my intent to beat
the (G) or getting out of Dodge all together. (automaker pun intended) I've
said this before and I'll say it again, it's a long year ahead of us. I'm not
convinced (just yet) that the Bear has turned into a Bull, but I like what
I'm seeing so far and we deserved being a part of it.

Next week will be a tough decision since I am all out of IFT's for the month.

We think quite alike (as you can see above) and sit on the same amounts
of IFT's left in April. That being ZERO !

Oh yeah, I told yall on my thread yesterday that the bear was backing up from the Power of the Bull

Easy There, young Wyatt Erp ! That stampede could just as easily go in
the opposite direction (I hope not) but lets not let the Champagne get in
our eyes just yet. The world is full of hurt and that (not seen too often)
top in a Bear Rally, could become a reality I wish to avoid when it rears
its ugly head. Sip your Champagne and enjoy the bouqet today, because
its getting warm and there's nothing worse then skunk grapes. In other
words, be careful my friend. The Bull can get tired too !

 

[Guest2]

Thursday - April 09, 2009
The EAFE INDEX closed up +2.30% and the EFA closed up +2.67%.
The (I) Fund closed up +2.56%. The possible start of a sustained
reversal to the Overpayment Side may be in the works. Now I said;
MAY be in the works. In the past, the Fund Mgrs. like to pick sides.
Either the "O" Overpayment or the "D" Deficit within the O/D Tracker.
This is evident by seeing all the "Red" Overpaid's below. Something
to watch, but it doesn't change their original goals of single digits.
Congratulations are in order and wishing everyone a Happy Easter.

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/16/09) -0.1584 tsp cents
(03/17/09)+0.0236 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(03/18/09)+0.2385 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(03/19/09) -0.1790 tsp cents
(03/20/09) -0.1812 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/23/09)+0.0949 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(03/24/09) -0.2058 tsp cents
(03/25/09) -0.1030 tsp cents
(03/26/09) -0.0695 tsp cents
(03/27/09) -0.0723 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/30/09) -0.0694 tsp cents
(03/31/09) -0.0732 tsp cents
(04/01/09)+0.0337 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(04/02/09) -0.0764 tsp cents
(04/03/09)+0.0274 tsp cents (Overpaid)

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(04/06/09) -0.0775 tsp cents
(04/07/09) -0.1543 tsp cents
(04/08/09) +0.0026 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(04/09/09) +0.0332 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(04/10/09) +0.0332 tsp cents (Holiday)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.3000 thru-.3999 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-.2000 thru-.2999 High Deficit (Elevated Level)
-.0100 thru-.1999 Medium Deficit (Flip - A - Coin)
-.0000 thru-.0999 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .0000 thru +.0999 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
+ .1000 thru +.1999 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .2000 thru +.2999 High Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .3000 thru +.3999 Elevated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[WorkFE]

Squalebear,
On sunday My Wife and I will sit down to dinner and celebrate the resurrection of Jesus.
Although we sulk about our investments everybody on this MB have much to be thankful for, (especially those who were in risk today):cheesy:
I pray for all those who have shared their sorrows with us here. From my family to yours Have a Happy Easter.

 

[Guest2]

Squalebear,
On Sunday my Wife and I will sit down to dinner and celebrate the
resurrection of Jesus. I pray for all those who have shared their sorrows
with us here. From my family to yours Have a Happy Easter.

It doesn't get any better then that ! And to all the members here at TSPTalk
I wish to extend the same ! HAPPY EASTER !

 

[nasa1974]

I took 35% off the table, but after a S&P 856.56 close, 900 isn't out of
the rhelm of possiblity (sometime in April). I did so because I'm leaning on
the Market coming to it's senses and remembering the trouble the U.S.
Economy has instore for us. With every tick up, I'll be tilting towards
pulling yet more off the table. Eventually I'll announce my intent to beat
the (G) or getting out of Dodge all together. (automaker pun intended) I've
said this before and I'll say it again, it's a long year ahead of us. I'm not
convinced (just yet) that the Bear has turned into a Bull, but I like what
I'm seeing so far and we deserved being a part of it.

SB, I know you and I have posted this somewhere in our accounts about making around 3% per month would be a good thing. After January and February hard hits March gave me a 3% lift. If I could manage that every month for the rest of the year that would give me 30% for the year. I can live with that. :laugh: So getting out of Dodge with a profit is a good thing, IFT's or not.:nuts:

 

[Guest2]

SB, I know you and I have posted this somewhere in our accounts about making around 3% per month would be a good thing. After January and February hard hits March gave me a 3% lift. If I could manage that every month for the rest of the year that would give me 30% for the year. I can live with that. So getting out of Dodge with a profit is a good thing, IFT's or not.

How about 1% per month and calling it even ! :nuts: That would leave me up
+2% YTD come December 31, 2009. Heck, that almost beats the (G) Fund
on a YTD basis. Given the turmoil in the market over the last year and a
half, it almost sounds like a victory. Don't get me wrong, I'm gonna shoot
for that 3%,,,,,, but something tells me its not over just yet.

Hope you and your family enjoy the Holiday Weekend ! Duty Calls !

 

[WorkFE]

NASA,
Does that mean if we make 30% in April we shut it down for the rest of the year. After 2008 anything above .01 is good. It is going to be a give and take year. My goal is positive territory.

 

[nasa1974]

NASA,
Does that mean if we make 30% in April we shut it down for the rest of the year. After 2008 anything above .01 is good. It is going to be a give and take year. My goal is positive territory.

FE, Thats good. :laugh: If we could do 30% in one month, WOW!!! No, basically it means that you do not want to get greedy. Making 3% and then playing it safe just might save you from loosing 5% for the month. It is always a long slow climb back out of the well. So take every postive step you can.

 

[Boghie]

NASA,
Does that mean if we make 30% in April we shut it down for the rest of the year. After 2008 anything above .01 is good. It is going to be a give and take year. My goal is positive territory.

WorkFE, anything above about -20% would be a great year for me I was proud of that return last year. Had to work hard for it. Jumped into the market about a month before serious crying time began. Lost about 20% from August 15 through November 14 Then again, the 'C Fund' lost 36%

I am now positive for the year. I want to take a picture of it - things may change tomorrow while the IFT drones are on their Wally World vacation. I just know Chevy Chase works there!!!

 

[Handballer]

NASA,
Does that mean if we make 30% in April we shut it down for the rest of the year. After 2008 anything above .01 is good. It is going to be a give and take year. My goal is positive territory.

I would be delighted to make 30% in April. But I have enough financial skill to lose it all by year end.

 

[nasa1974]

I would be delighted to make 30% in April. But I have enough financial skill to lose it all by year end.

If I was able to make 30% in April I would absolutely be in the (G)arage and only come out and use my monthly IFT's for a sure thing. If that meant that I stayed in the (G)arage all year so be it.

 

[Guest2]

If I was able to make 30% in April I would absolutely be in the (G)arage and only come out and use my monthly IFT's for a sure thing. If that meant that I stayed in the (G)arage all year so be it.

I wish to remind you that when you see that sure thing, your required to
announce it for all of us by 11am ! :nuts: I look at stocks being up 235% YTD
and get sick that I haven't the knowledge, nor the dollars to dabble with.

 

[nasa1974]

I wish to remind you that when you see that sure thing, your required to announce it for all of us by 11am !

If I didn't then I would be removed from this MB. :nuts: