Squalebear's Account Talk

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This commentary comes out of a conversation that I had last night
with a fellow staff member WHO STILL thought his first move back to
the (G) Fund did not count towards the 2 per month limit. IT DOES. If
your in a Fund and your first move for the month is to move money back
into the (G) Fund from that Fund, IT COUNTS ! These Public Service
Announcements should come from the FRTIB, but we all know thats
not happening, nor will they ! ;)
 
Still waiting for the Price Update on the TSP website ! Geeez, not a good
way to start the month, even for Gov't work ! Grrrrrr ! :mad:
 
WorkFE said:
Damn Gov't workers, probably left early today like me and forgot to update it.:D
Click to expand...

Last in ,,,, First out Aye ! :D Hope your investment strategy differs ! :nuts:

Still no update and running out of time before duty calls ! This is so Gov't.
Hurry up and wait, sort a speak. I like getting my work done quickly and
not waiting on others. But alas, with 19 years in, you'd think I'd be use
to it by now. :suspicious:
 
I was kidding about leaving early, I work in emergency management so thats just not possible. Nice gain on the S, avg C, I fund 3 pennies.
After the open I can live with it.
 
Friday - April 03, 2009
The EAFE Index closed DOWN -0.64% and the EFA closed UP
+.57%. Boy that (I) Fund Price was licking it's chops to break
the $13 mark and today it did. The O/D Tracker shows a slight
swing to the Overpayment side , but within the "Met Their Goals"
area as it has all week. Have A Super Weekend ! :cool:

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/09/09) -0.1508 tsp cents
(03/10/09) -0.0943 tsp cents
(03/11/09) -0.0939 tsp cents
(03/12/09)+0.0892 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(03/13/09) -0.0320 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/16/09) -0.1584 tsp cents
(03/17/09)+0.0236 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(03/18/09)+0.2385 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(03/19/09) -0.1790 tsp cents
(03/20/09) -0.1812 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/23/09)+0.0949 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(03/24/09) -0.2058 tsp cents
(03/25/09) -0.1030 tsp cents
(03/26/09) -0.0695 tsp cents
(03/27/09) -0.0723 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/30/09) -0.0694 tsp cents
(03/31/09) -0.0732 tsp cents
(04/01/09)+0.0337 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(04/02/09) -0.0764 tsp cents
(04/03/09)+0.0274 tsp cents (Overpaid):cool:

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(04/06/09)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.3000 thru-.3999 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-.2000 thru-.2999 High Deficit (Elevated Level)
-.0100 thru-.1999 Medium Deficit (Flip - A - Coin)
-.0000 thru-.0999 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .0000 thru +.0999 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met) :cool:
+ .1000 thru +.1999 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .2000 thru +.2999 High Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .3000 thru +.3999 Elevated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
 
WorkFE said:
I was kidding about leaving early, I work in emergency management so thats just not possible. Nice gain on the S, avg C, I fund 3 pennies.
After the open I can live with it.
Click to expand...

I know you were kidding, thats why my smiley's were strategically placed.
Yes, today's gains were important because of the massive day we had
yesterday. The sellers are tired and their shorts are falling ! :nuts:

Congrat's on a good day ! I didn't get the (S) Fund +1.76% return, but I'll
take the +0.64% gain everytime ! Time for work, have a great weekend ! ;)
 
Dollar rallies after jobs report

The greenback rises against most currencies after a U.S.
government report showing the jobless rate jumped to 8.5%


http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/03/markets/dollar.reut/index.htm

What the (I) Fund needs is a good old fashion Butt Kicking by the
Euro (not likey) and Yen (chart looks good). I suspect that when
this happens, the dropping dollar will add to our (I) Fund hopes.
May it come sooner, rather than later ! ;)
 
Here are some graphs for you to study tonight when time permits. Don't pay attention to the noise - just concentrate on the triple bottom from July 02 through March 03. There is a good comparison off the October 02 low with our recent move. When will the retest arrive if we even have one. There was a three thousand point move off the March 03 retest up into February 04. I have these graphs committed to memory. I almost forgot to leave the link.

http://safehaven.com/article-13011.htm
 
Birchtree said:
Here are some graphs for you to study tonight when time permits. Don't pay attention to the noise - just concentrate on the triple bottom from July 02 through March 03. There is a good comparison off the October 02 low with our recent move. When will the retest arrive if we even have one. There was a three thousand point move off the March 03 retest up into February 04. I have these graphs committed to memory. I almost forgot to leave the link.

http://safehaven.com/article-13011.htm
Click to expand...

I will without fail ! Many Thanks Birch ! :)
 
Monday - April 06, 2009
The numerous times that we've seen $0.07 TSP Cents or close
within the O/D Tracker leaves me believing that its the new zero.
But that's not how it works and were now back on the "Deficit" side.

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/09/09) -0.1508 tsp cents
(03/10/09) -0.0943 tsp cents
(03/11/09) -0.0939 tsp cents
(03/12/09)+0.0892 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(03/13/09) -0.0320 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/16/09) -0.1584 tsp cents
(03/17/09)+0.0236 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(03/18/09)+0.2385 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(03/19/09) -0.1790 tsp cents
(03/20/09) -0.1812 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/23/09)+0.0949 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(03/24/09) -0.2058 tsp cents
(03/25/09) -0.1030 tsp cents
(03/26/09) -0.0695 tsp cents
(03/27/09) -0.0723 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/30/09) -0.0694 tsp cents
(03/31/09) -0.0732 tsp cents
(04/01/09)+0.0337 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(04/02/09) -0.0764 tsp cents
(04/03/09)+0.0274 tsp cents (Overpaid)

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(04/06/09) -0.0775 tsp cents:blink:

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.3000 thru-.3999 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-.2000 thru-.2999 High Deficit (Elevated Level)
-.0100 thru-.1999 Medium Deficit (Flip - A - Coin)
-.0000 thru-.0999 Low Deficit (Goal is Met):blink:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .0000 thru +.0999 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met) :cool:
+ .1000 thru +.1999 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .2000 thru +.2999 High Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .3000 thru +.3999 Elevated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

Birchtree said:
Here are some graphs for you to study tonight when time permits. Don't pay attention to the noise - just concentrate on the triple bottom from July 02 through March 03. There is a good comparison off the October 02 low with our recent move. When will the retest arrive if we even have one. There was a three thousand point move off the March 03 retest up into February 04. http://safehaven.com/article-13011.htm
Click to expand...

Other then a weaker drop in the 1st Drop of our Triple Bottom in 10/08
there's a strong resemblence between the two charts AND I see what
your getting at. Am I seeing what I want to see ? Is our Economy, Banks
and Corporate Earnings being opposed differently then in 2002-2003 ?
Is Oscar correct when saying that he is seeing something special like you
and I ? Are we on the 3rd way down to a Quadruple Bottom before the
Market gets off the sidelines and trust equities again ? These questions
burn for an answer and I certainly would love your thoughts on them. ;)

02-03
View attachment 6138
08-09
View attachment 6139
 
Last edited:
The March 08 bottom equates to the October 02 bottom sequence. If we see a retest of the March 08 bottom my anticipation is for June 08 which will favorably compare with March 03. The retest will be successful but staying well above the March 08 lows of SPX at 666 and the Dow at 6547. Of course the possibility remains that we will not retest and continue the rally right into September and beyond. This is just one scenario that could be available and would be an excellent opportunity to IFT for some good gains. But with the run in 2003 there was very little opportunity to time that bull run. I think that bull rules now apply. Here is some information from Zeal Intelligence; "Within bear rallies, their greatest days are always right off the preceding lows. It is unheard of for a bear rally to have its biggest day a couple weeks in. Monday March 23rd, day 10 of this rally, finally removed all remaining doubts about this rally's unique nature. That day, the SPX blasted 7.1% higher. It was this index's 4th largest rally ever, but still unprecedented in all stock market history. This was a melt-up day. At its March 9th low, the SPX revisited a close last seen in September 1996. That is a 12 years and 6 months ago. In the entire history of the US stock markets, decade-plus lows are so rare you can count them on your fingers. After such mightily oversold events, the stock markets always stronghly rallied for years. This fact, the promise of amazing returns, helped motivate the contrarians like me to buy this bottom." I hope that's not overly bullish - but I'm in up to my nostrils. And I'm waiting for the next melt-up day and I'm sure it's on the way as a surprise to trap further the bears that are trying to be resolute. Snort.
 
The January 6th high to the March 6th low was an undercut low caused by the individual retail investor doing the old fashioned cut and run at the bottom. This degree of capitulation caused the March low of SPX at 666. Unfortunately the retail investor lacked the fortitude to hold on to their stocks at such a massively bullish inflection point and as I've said before good riddance to them. They'll be back at much higher levels and in the meantime are being punished by missing this rally. That's what the bull likes and is exactly the way it's supposed to work - it's classic.
 
Thanks for your analysis Birch, your motivation is only surpassed by your
knowledge. Thank you for sharing your insights with me, its appreciated. :)


2ND IFT MADE TODAY FOR APRIL TO INCREASE MY
U.S. HOLDINGS AND ADD (F) FOR POSSIBLE USE
IN THE FUTURE.

(G)---------> 00%---------->00%
(F)---------->00%---------->05%
(C)---------->25%---------->40%
(S)---------->15%---------->30%
(I)---------->60%----------->25%
 
Tuesday - April 07, 2009
The Deficit rises for the first time in 8 trading days. It now sits in
the "Flip-A-Coin" area of the O/D Tracker. But there's no need to
jump in just yet. "Blue" is better and "Red" is best. But no matter
what the color, the market needs to improve. :D

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/16/09) -0.1584 tsp cents
(03/17/09)+0.0236 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(03/18/09)+0.2385 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(03/19/09) -0.1790 tsp cents
(03/20/09) -0.1812 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/23/09)+0.0949 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(03/24/09) -0.2058 tsp cents
(03/25/09) -0.1030 tsp cents
(03/26/09) -0.0695 tsp cents
(03/27/09) -0.0723 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/30/09) -0.0694 tsp cents
(03/31/09) -0.0732 tsp cents
(04/01/09)+0.0337 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(04/02/09) -0.0764 tsp cents
(04/03/09)+0.0274 tsp cents (Overpaid)

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(04/06/09) -0.0775 tsp cents
(04/07/09) -0.1543 tsp cents :D

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.3000 thru-.3999 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-.2000 thru-.2999 High Deficit (Elevated Level)
-.0100 thru-.1999 Medium Deficit (Flip - A - Coin) :D
-.0000 thru-.0999 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .0000 thru +.0999 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met) :cool:
+ .1000 thru +.1999 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .2000 thru +.2999 High Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .3000 thru +.3999 Elevated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Thanks Birch. In response to the retesting process in the article, I noticed on 3rd graph that the next leg down is throughout April. Believing that this rally is intact, I went in 50% today (1 token left) 20c/20s/10i. I wish I saw this article yesterday...would have stayed put in G. :worried:
 
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