Show-me Account Talk

[Show-me]

I hate being in equities over the weekend, so I will take Ebb's lead and go to the F fund.

Never go against the guy who post moves so far in advance and has a phenomenal return.

 

[Show-me]

I hate being in equities over the weekend, so I will take Ebb's lead and go to the F fund.

Never go against the guy who post moves so far in advance and has a phenomenal return.

Change of plan. First, I don't want to buy F fund after it popped. Second, I don't want to sell C fund at this point, I would rather add.

This may be just jitters so I will dump my I fund and buy up C fund.

Best case....................USM rally and I get a +FV.

Worst case..................USM keep going down and I get a -FV, but the OSM will follow the next day and I would not want to be in the I fund if Modays USM continue down and/or the USD rallies.

I'll take my chances in the C fund. I think I will seed some cash away in the F fund in case Monday is bloody.

25% F

75% C

 

[Show-me]

With the FTSE down 1% I will likely IFT some to the I fund for a potential bounce. Most times when the FTSE drops 1% or more the next day is a pretty reliable bounce.

I will wait closer to the dead line to see if there is any kind of recovery.

 

[Show-me]

Looking more like I will go to the I fund. Question is how much more. I am looking at the USD index chart and it is right at 80.036. Are we going to get a major USD bounce/relief rally? If we do it will drain any gains in foreign equities.

Got to go. GL everyone!

 

[nnuut]

Well, I just don't know what to think now.

CURRENCIES
Dollar slumps to new lows

By Wanfeng Zhou, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:37 AM ET Jul 24, 2007

(Corrects a typographical error in headline.)
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell to a fresh all-time low against the euro and a 26-year trough against the British pound Tuesday, on heightened fears that the troubled housing market will hurt the broader U.S. economy.
The greenback also dropped to its lowest level in 18 years against the Australian dollar and a ten-week low against Japan's yen. The U.S. Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of the world's major currencies, tumbled to a fresh 15-year low at 80.015. (more)
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Currencies

 

[Griffin]

Do you think it's a coincidence that we stopped publishing M3? - I hate to sound paranoid, but this is the best argument that I can think of, why this time could be different - if M3 is now making 40% or more of the money supply - who would know?

Here's from Wikipedia: "As of March 23, 2006, information regarding M3 will no longer be published by the Federal Reserve, ostensibly because it costs a lot to collect the data but doesn't provide significantly useful data[1]. The other three money supply measures will continue to be provided in detail. On March 7th, 2006, Congressman Ron Paul introduced H.R. 4892 in an effort to reverse this change."

View attachment 1785

Well, I just don't know what to think now.

CURRENCIES
Dollar slumps to new lows

By Wanfeng Zhou, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:37 AM ET Jul 24, 2007

(Corrects a typographical error in headline.)
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell to a fresh all-time low against the euro and a 26-year trough against the British pound Tuesday, on heightened fears that the troubled housing market will hurt the broader U.S. economy.
The greenback also dropped to its lowest level in 18 years against the Australian dollar and a ten-week low against Japan's yen. The U.S. Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of the world's major currencies, tumbled to a fresh 15-year low at 80.015. (more)
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Currencies

 

[Show-me]

100 S

Risk is to high with the dollar and S is closest to support.

 

[Show-me]

Ouch, that left a mark!

So far I do not feel to bad about my decision. I will say that Griffin and Palladin's posts did help my decision making.

The dollar is on a run today and the FTSE is steadily moving up. It makes sense that it would considering the 1.9% decline yesterday and some of the good news we have since the close yesterday.

I got (fill in the blank) pulling my 25% out of the I fund, but at the time of the decision it did not look that bad. The only good thing is I stayed in equities, s fund, and will ride it out today. Even with the FTSE and EZ recovering it will be difficult to gain anything with the USD index rising also. Of course it is typical for the USD index to drop just in time for the market to open. I think currency's trading time starts earlier like gold and silver.

I would really like to know what the M-3 money supply numbers are since they quit posting/tracking them.

I will say that seeing the FTSE and EZ recovering makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Mean on the surface we are not in a major panic mode yet. If we were they would continue to sell off break even with the -FV that the "Evil Ones" who's name is spoken here levied against the I fund last night.

GL everyone and hang in there. If your struggling, go to the buy and hold method and get some sleep at night. Keep your contributions cranked up and build that nest egg.

 

[NTXDiver]

When you mention that "S is closest to support", what info/how do you base that? Not doubting...just inquiring.

I've been following several threads and I haven't gotten the gist of what to look for just yet...consequently, there have been some days when I REALLY wish I had more information

 

[mlk_man]

The S&P is sitting on it's previous low for July of 1510. Rather it goes up or down from here, only the investment gods know for sure............

 

[Show-me]

When you mention that "S is closest to support", what info/how do you base that? Not doubting...just inquiring.

I've been following several threads and I haven't gotten the gist of what to look for just yet...consequently, there have been some days when I REALLY wish I had more information

I use moving averages as support, 20 day and 50 day.

 

[Show-me]

Support and Resistance

When you mention that "S is closest to support", what info/how do you base that? Not doubting...just inquiring.

I've been following several threads and I haven't gotten the gist of what to look for just yet...consequently, there have been some days when I REALLY wish I had more information

Sorry I was so short in my answer, that dang work got in the way again.

Here are a couple of links that may help. Actually I'm glad you asked because it makes me go back and read it again.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:support_and_resistan

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_averages


Support and Resistance Levels

Another use of moving averages is to identify support and resistance levels. This is usually accomplished with one moving average and is based on historical precedent. As with trend identification, support and resistance level identification through moving averages works best in trending markets.

After breaking out of a trading range, Sun Microsystems (SUNW) successfully tested moving average support in late July and early August. Also notice that the June resistance breakout near 18 turned into support. Therefore, the moving average acted as a confirmation of resistance-turned-support. After this first test, the 50-day moving average went on to 4 more successful support tests over the next several months. A break of support from the 50-day moving average would serve as a warning that the stock may move into a trading range or may be about to change the direction of the trend. Such a break occurred in Apr-00 and the 50-day SMA turned into resistance later that month. When the stock broke above the 50-day SMA in early Jun-00, it returned to a support level until the Oct-00 break. In Oct-00, the 50-day SMA became a resistance level and that held for many months.

 

[Show-me]

OK, now I'm feeling a little bad about my decision. The C fund was the winner today. I jumped to the I fund because I felt it was the bargain with the dollar rally, but it could go higher before it hits resistance at the moving averages. If the markets do not turn around in the next two days I will be much more worried and will jump out until support is found. On the C fund it looks like mid-1480's is next support, then around 1475 and if that don't hold the 200 dma.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51972347693

Good luck and good night.

 

[Show-me]

OK, now I'm feeling really bad about my decision. The FTSE is at the 200 day SMA so I might as well hold on for now and kick up my contributions massively.

This chart does not show todays action, but the FTSE is right above the 200 day.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$FTSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51972347693

 

[mlk_man]

End of the month coming up so you might see some window shopping. Hang in there! We didn't start the year too great either remember.

 

[Show-me]

Mlk,
That is a good point and I hope you are absolutely correct.

 

[Show-me]

Show-me Account House of Pain

Well, well, well, how the tide has shifted things. Question is: Is this the bottom or just the beginning? Depends on who ya read.

The sub-prime problem is coming home to roost and I believe we have not seen the worst. Will it continue to effect the rest of the market?

The good: Earnings are doing OK.

The bad: Durable Goods and New Home Sales took a big whack. Countrywide made the statement that, "We are experiencing home price depreciation almost like never before, with the exception of the Great Depression."

The ugly: The dollar bounce will I was in the I fund.

I increase my contributions again and in two more week will reevaluate.

That's all I got, exercising the below signature I stoled from Tom.

 

[Spaf]

I don't think the dust has settled on this one!

Energy, earnings, credit and housing woes!

We are in the worst 6 months and the Bollinger Bands are widening (stuff getting more volatile)......

Need to construct some guard rails on my lilly pad, I feel some waves a comming!

 

[JTH]

I don't think the dust has settled on this one!

This rookie would like to think you are wrong, but at this point I would have to agree with you, and for me I just don't think the risk is worth the potential loss. :worried:

 

[Show-me]

Yep, I'm hanging on for a the proverbial "dead cat" if I don't get some positive action by Wed. I am into "house renovating mode".

On a good note my Honeybees are make'n money and I have not had to spend a lot of money on gas to mow the yard. We are still in a drought. Counties all around us get rain, all we get is squat.