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Show-me Account Talk
- Thread starter Show-me
- Start date
- Status
Show-me
Well-known member
Hurricane worry is over and it is time to get down to business. I am still emotional about the pending market condition as related to the sub-prime issues. I can not shake what Robert Drach on the NBR said about the Gov/Fed bailing out the financial sector and that he is a buyer of financial because nobody else wants them.
Sub-prime is a small part of the greater market and the news media is making it worse. Buying opportunity!
The Fed took care of the big boyz by cutting the Discount Rate and will have to take care of the little people eventually, so I do not want to miss that when it happens.
I do think the Fed will step in at the appropriate measured time, but surprises do happen. When is that? Don’t know and I do not want to risk missing the POP.
So how do I play it? No data to speak of this week except for Friday’s durable good and new home sale. We know new home sales will be dismal so we have durables. Then next week is choked full of ED so I think the market will be on edge until Tuesday, but a good report of Friday may rally the market a tad early.
I think tomorrow I will ITF 25% into the market followed by another 25% if Friday is a downer. If Friday is up I will wait until Monday to buy 25% more because the markets usually get nervous the day before ED.
Now we are up against the 200 dma and if we go down another 5% before the Fed saves the day at 50% in I would take a 2.5% ding. I don’t want to loose that much but the risk reward is looking better.
Also the MACD, Slow Stoch, and RSI are improving regardless of what my emotions say. The 20 dma is getting ready to cross the 200dma. Ripe for some selective pick'n.
I plan to diversify across the C, S, and I fund while keeping the remainder in the F fund.
Just thinking out loud.
I can't help but think it is close to a election year and the elected liars will want to all look like they are helping out the little guy after helping out the big boyz. So I do think the Fed will step in, I just don't know when. I may go to Sept. 18th so that the Fed can save some face.
Good luck.
Sub-prime is a small part of the greater market and the news media is making it worse. Buying opportunity!
The Fed took care of the big boyz by cutting the Discount Rate and will have to take care of the little people eventually, so I do not want to miss that when it happens.
I do think the Fed will step in at the appropriate measured time, but surprises do happen. When is that? Don’t know and I do not want to risk missing the POP.
So how do I play it? No data to speak of this week except for Friday’s durable good and new home sale. We know new home sales will be dismal so we have durables. Then next week is choked full of ED so I think the market will be on edge until Tuesday, but a good report of Friday may rally the market a tad early.
I think tomorrow I will ITF 25% into the market followed by another 25% if Friday is a downer. If Friday is up I will wait until Monday to buy 25% more because the markets usually get nervous the day before ED.
Now we are up against the 200 dma and if we go down another 5% before the Fed saves the day at 50% in I would take a 2.5% ding. I don’t want to loose that much but the risk reward is looking better.
Also the MACD, Slow Stoch, and RSI are improving regardless of what my emotions say. The 20 dma is getting ready to cross the 200dma. Ripe for some selective pick'n.
I plan to diversify across the C, S, and I fund while keeping the remainder in the F fund.
Just thinking out loud.
I can't help but think it is close to a election year and the elected liars will want to all look like they are helping out the little guy after helping out the big boyz. So I do think the Fed will step in, I just don't know when. I may go to Sept. 18th so that the Fed can save some face.
Good luck.
FogSailing
Well-known member
I do think the Fed will step in at the appropriate measured time, but surprises do happen. When is that? Don’t know and I do not want to risk missing the POP.
So how do I play it? No data to speak of this week except for Friday’s durable good and new home sale. We know new home sales will be dismal so we have durables. Then next week is choked full of ED so I think the market will be on edge until Tuesday, but a good report of Friday may rally the market a tad early.
I think tomorrow I will ITF 25% into the market followed by another 25% if Friday is a downer. If Friday is up I will wait until Monday to buy 25% more because the markets usually get nervous the day before ED.
Now we are up against the 200 dma and if we go down another 5% before the Fed saves the day at 50% in I would take a 2.5% ding. I don’t want to loose that much but the risk reward is looking better.
Also the MACD, Slow Stoch, and RSI are improving regardless of what my emotions say. The 20 dma is getting ready to cross the 200dma. Ripe for some selective pick'n.
I plan to diversify across the C, S, and I fund while keeping the remainder in the F fund.
Just thinking out loud.
I can't help but think it is close to a election year and the elected liars will want to all look like they are helping out the little guy after helping out the big boyz. So I do think the Fed will step in, I just don't know when. I may go to Sept. 18th so that the Fed can save some face.
Good luck.[/QUOTE]
Hi Show Me:
I am in agreement with your analysis for the short term. My problem is that I can't shake the feeling that we are still in the midst of a down turn within a longer term cycle. I don't want to miss the "POP" that comes when the Fed makes their cut a realty either...so I'm conflicted on this one. I'm going to follow Griffin for a while on this. 12% told me to diversify for the longer term with S and I but I still think it's too early..I'm still holding G until Trader Fred indicates that buy signals are for stocks. I'll probably miss some ositive gains but I've taken such a whoopin...I'm just a bit gun shy right now. Good luck on your approach.
FS
So how do I play it? No data to speak of this week except for Friday’s durable good and new home sale. We know new home sales will be dismal so we have durables. Then next week is choked full of ED so I think the market will be on edge until Tuesday, but a good report of Friday may rally the market a tad early.
I think tomorrow I will ITF 25% into the market followed by another 25% if Friday is a downer. If Friday is up I will wait until Monday to buy 25% more because the markets usually get nervous the day before ED.
Now we are up against the 200 dma and if we go down another 5% before the Fed saves the day at 50% in I would take a 2.5% ding. I don’t want to loose that much but the risk reward is looking better.
Also the MACD, Slow Stoch, and RSI are improving regardless of what my emotions say. The 20 dma is getting ready to cross the 200dma. Ripe for some selective pick'n.
I plan to diversify across the C, S, and I fund while keeping the remainder in the F fund.
Just thinking out loud.
I can't help but think it is close to a election year and the elected liars will want to all look like they are helping out the little guy after helping out the big boyz. So I do think the Fed will step in, I just don't know when. I may go to Sept. 18th so that the Fed can save some face.
Good luck.[/QUOTE]
Hi Show Me:
I am in agreement with your analysis for the short term. My problem is that I can't shake the feeling that we are still in the midst of a down turn within a longer term cycle. I don't want to miss the "POP" that comes when the Fed makes their cut a realty either...so I'm conflicted on this one. I'm going to follow Griffin for a while on this. 12% told me to diversify for the longer term with S and I but I still think it's too early..I'm still holding G until Trader Fred indicates that buy signals are for stocks. I'll probably miss some ositive gains but I've taken such a whoopin...I'm just a bit gun shy right now. Good luck on your approach.
FS
FogSailing
Well-known member
Yep...that angle has a lot of positive feeling about it...POP then DUCK eh
FS
FS
Show-me
Well-known member
Well the charts are looking better, but the emotions are gnawing at me again.
The S fund has had its 5th day in positive territory. So the S fund should take a break today or tomorrow.
July 16th was the top on the S&P and that seem a very short time for everything to correct and shake out.
IMO, new home sales will not be a factor because we already know it is bad out there for housing.
Durable goods is in the same camp some what even though it takes in account much more than just appliances.
The headlines are "Hopes grow for a Fed rate cut". So do we get a rally on the rumors/hopes and a sell on the news. And, by the time the Fed does cut rates will it already be priced in?
So as of right now I will still plan to buy in some more on Friday and Monday. The days before ED the market usually waffles.
The S fund has had its 5th day in positive territory. So the S fund should take a break today or tomorrow.
July 16th was the top on the S&P and that seem a very short time for everything to correct and shake out.
IMO, new home sales will not be a factor because we already know it is bad out there for housing.
Durable goods is in the same camp some what even though it takes in account much more than just appliances.
The headlines are "Hopes grow for a Fed rate cut". So do we get a rally on the rumors/hopes and a sell on the news. And, by the time the Fed does cut rates will it already be priced in?
So as of right now I will still plan to buy in some more on Friday and Monday. The days before ED the market usually waffles.
Show-me
Well-known member
I figure it is a 50/50 chance that the market rally tomorrow. The S fund chart shows a convergence of the 20, 50, and 200 dma. If a higher high does not get made soon we will be in trouble.
Everything rest in Ben's hands and how the market perceives his actions. Not a real warm a fuzzy feeling about either.
Everything rest in Ben's hands and how the market perceives his actions. Not a real warm a fuzzy feeling about either.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
SM,
50/50..!?!?....:notrust:
The folks at CNBC seem to be playing dice. ? could be Liar Dice??
?Did U Marines ever play dat game?......
..!..:suspicious:
50/50..!?!?....:notrust:
The folks at CNBC seem to be playing dice. ? could be Liar Dice??
?Did U Marines ever play dat game?......
..!..:suspicious:
FogSailing
Well-known member
Hi SM:
I'm hoping the probability for a rate cut is now better than 50/50. (IMO) If Uncle Ben fails to act, the markets and the general public will perceive a lack of proper attending to the nation's economy, and there will be many many very PO'd people (soon to be followed by scared people) in all business sectors, not to mention government sectors, and international interests.
Of course, I bit the bullet and stayed in again on the "assumption" that all will be well. I hope I don't get my butt handed back to me..I guess I forecast that "Tomorrow will be a kick ass day", and leave it at that.
Good luck tomorrow Show-Me.
FS
I'm hoping the probability for a rate cut is now better than 50/50. (IMO) If Uncle Ben fails to act, the markets and the general public will perceive a lack of proper attending to the nation's economy, and there will be many many very PO'd people (soon to be followed by scared people) in all business sectors, not to mention government sectors, and international interests.
Of course, I bit the bullet and stayed in again on the "assumption" that all will be well. I hope I don't get my butt handed back to me..I guess I forecast that "Tomorrow will be a kick ass day", and leave it at that.
Good luck tomorrow Show-Me.
FS
FUTURESTRADER
Active member
looked pretty obvious here that $TNX was strong since 9/13
tho I still bet 40% on F...the cost of an ebbtrain ticket
Show-me
Well-known member
Buyers regret!!!
No major ED or earnings today so the market will be in crapper. No bad news to propel the market up the freak'n wall of worry. Great! Can you say irrational exuberance! The retailer, banks, home builders, auto mfg., service sector all lowering guidance. Oil and food still high and going higher.
I regret my move in and fully expect to loose my ass. Ride the wave!:nuts:
No major ED or earnings today so the market will be in crapper. No bad news to propel the market up the freak'n wall of worry. Great! Can you say irrational exuberance! The retailer, banks, home builders, auto mfg., service sector all lowering guidance. Oil and food still high and going higher.
I regret my move in and fully expect to loose my ass. Ride the wave!:nuts:
FogSailing
Well-known member
Hi Show Me:
This is a strange market (stranger than usual anyway)...I didn't expect the Nikkei to do anything and it moved up, while the FTSE went down last night..
I'm hopng 12% is correct about today and we see a move up in US stocks...at least a little upward movement..
Still...I'm am concerned about becoming a buy and hold type in this environment..although I think Griffin is doing just fine with that approach (using it in a limited fashion).
GL today...smile :laugh::laugh: ...it's going to be ok..I hope..
FS
This is a strange market (stranger than usual anyway)...I didn't expect the Nikkei to do anything and it moved up, while the FTSE went down last night..
I'm hopng 12% is correct about today and we see a move up in US stocks...at least a little upward movement..
Still...I'm am concerned about becoming a buy and hold type in this environment..although I think Griffin is doing just fine with that approach (using it in a limited fashion).
GL today...smile :laugh:
:laugh: ...it's going to be ok..I hope..FS
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