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The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead

Last Update: 15-Aug-08 09:28 ET

Financial market participants will get a bit of a breather in the coming week with second quarter earnings reporting season winding down, only a handful of economic reports and a dearth of Fed speakers.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Target (TGT) and home improvement retail giants Lowe's (LOW) and Home Depot (HD) are the luminaries on the earnings calendar for the coming week. For a full list of companies confirmed to report their results, be sure to visit our Earnings Calendar page.

Only five economic reports are scheduled, including Housing Starts and Building Permits, Producer Price Index, Philadelphia Fed, Leading Indicators and Initial Unemployment Claims.

The stock market has been closely watching crude oil prices, so the government's weekly energy report on Wednesday will also be an area of focus.

More information is available at Briefing.com's Economic Calendar.
________________________________________________________________


Monday, August 18:
  • Earnings: Lowe's (LOW)
  • Economic Data: None
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: Noble Financial M.A.D. MAX Equity Conference... SRA Summer Technology Conference
  • Fed Speakers: None
Tuesday, August 19:
  • Earnings: Home Depot (HD), Saks (SKS), Target (TGT), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Analog Devices (ADI)
  • Economic Data: Housing Starts and Building Permits (July)... Producer Price Index (July)
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: Intel Developers Forum... Noble Financial M.A.D. MAX Equity Conference
  • Fed Speakers: Dallas Fed President Fisher speak on U.S. economy (10:00 AM ET)
Wednesday, August 20:
  • Earnings: BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ), Limited (LTD), Salesforce.com (CRM),
  • Economic Data: None
  • Events: Weekly Crude Inventories (week ended Aug. 16)
  • Conferences: None
  • Fed Speakers: None
Thursday, August 21:
  • Earnings: Barnes & Noble (BKS), Burger King (BKC), Game Stop (GME), HJ Heinz (HNZ), Hormel Foods (HRL), Foot Locker (FL), Gap (GPS)
  • Economic Data: Leading Indicators (July)... ...Philadelphia Fed (Aug.)... Weekly Jobless Claims (week ended Aug. 16)
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: American Electronics Association Green To Gold Conference
  • Fed Speakers: None
Friday, August 22:
--Ryan McShane, Briefing.com

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...vestor&ArticleId=NS20080815092933LookingAhead
 
Ascending Wedge Implies Correction Imminent
by Carl Swenlin
August 15, 2008 The rally that began off the July lows has not demonstrated the kind of strength we normally expect from the deeply oversold conditions that were present at its beginning. Instead, the meager price advance has served only relieve oversold compression and advance internal indicators to moderately overbought levels. In the process, as the chart shows, the price pattern has morphed into an ascending wedge formation, a bearish formation that usually breaks to the downside. Since we are in a bear market (the primary trend is down), odds of the negative outcome are increased.

Bottom Line: While our trend-following model has us on an intermediate-term buy signal, my opinion is that we should expect a correction which, at the very least, will retest the July lows. Since we are in a bear market, there is also a strong possibility that any correction could be the start of the next leg down.
Click to expand...

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/080815_wedge.html

080815_wedge-1.gif
 
Ascending Wedge Implies Correction Imminent
by Carl Swenlin
August 15, 2008

Could be! Are you bearish or bullish? Were other indicators considered.
Was the "wedge" drawn from the left side or the right side?

I tend to follow the traditional school of drawing resistance and support lines. Knowing that they have to be redrawn quite frequently.

Maybe I would consider Rev. Shark; rather than bearish or bullish maybe "dicey".......:D......which rymes with "icey"......:cheesy:

What the heck do I know?....:confused:
 
Defiantly bearish and I will say these bear market rallies really went farther than I could have imagined. Economy is slowing worldwide. Dollar rally is way over exaggerated and due a pull back which will move commodities back up. Storm season is a unknown. Dollar is gaining on the speculation that the Eurozone and other world economies are slowing and they will lower rates to help motivate their economies like we did ours. Also commodities are taking a hit on both the dollar and the speculation that the need for those commodities will wain with the slowing global economies.

Manufacturing as we know it is shifting, ask the auto and appliance industry. The financial sector is not done churning a burning. The auction rate litigation is coming and the write downs will continue. The banks have and will tighten lending standard while having limited capital to lend as it is tied up in buying back the auction rate securities now. The SEC will be watching their every move now and it will be harder for them to make the fast money while we are watching so closely.

Election year politics will have a major effect on everything that happens. Tax payers are going to get the shaft big time after the election and the new administration will have to step up to the plate and make some major changes. We have a ton of baby booms coming into the system. We also have a ton of baby booms delaying their retirement because of the economy and that is making it hard on the younger generations that are waiting in the wings for their jobs. Double whammy with a massive bottle neck in the job market. New job candidates waiting in the wing and the old folk can't afford to step aside.

Housing sector is not done as a new bundle of ARM's are going to reset off of their teaser rates starting in 2009. More folk defaulting and more foreclosures. Credit cards will feel the pain also.

In short major damage control is still being done and we ain't out of the woods yet. I will say that there are some fantastic bargains out there and a great time to DCA and large index fund or sector fund.
 
Question, no political bashing. What was different about how this war was managed that put us in the red financially as a country?

It was why the cost in dollars was so high. We did something on a major scale not done like this before.

I'll be back in a few to give you my theory.
 
Show-me said:
Question, no political bashing. What was different about how this war was managed that put us in the red financially as a country?

It was why the cost in dollars was so high. We did something on a major scale not done like this before.

I'll be back in a few to give you my theory.
Click to expand...

Subcontracting of mercenaries. We subcontracted the most ever during this war in order to avoid the draft and at a premium. The draft would have been political suicide for any politician, so any and all support roles were subcontracted out in order to use active duty personnel in combat roles. We even use mercenaries to the max with Blackwater. These companies paid top dollar to anyone who wanted to make good money in a combat zone. They recruited guys right off of the line with big money offers in comparison to what a lowly E-2, E-3, or E-4 was getting from their government.

An E-3 over 3 years in service base pay is $1790 a month plus no taxes, combat, haz duty pay, and benefits. So $21,500 a year or go to work for Blackwater for $50,000 to $80,000 plus depending of training, level of experience, with benefits, and tax free. Sign me up! Plus the tax payer got shafted when they lost that veteran because of all of the training dollars spent on them.

You could of drafted 3 Privates or more for what the subcontracting of one civilian cost the taxpayer, but you would have had to draft and that is a dirty word. So there is a huge price to pay if you want to avoid a draft and that price is subcontracting mercenaries.

Nobody had the will or the balls to use the draft or get out and instead they bent to the will of the people to protect their political carers. All are guilty, all are to blame, all are trying to save their jobs and not do the right thing but do what is going to keep them in office.

The people do not always know what is best for them or the country, but they have a vote and the career politician fears the vote.

So vote.

<steps off soapbox>
 
Here is another prime example.
U.S. likely to recapitalize Fannie, Freddie: report

Sun Aug 17, 2008 2:47pm EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury is growing increasingly likely to recapitalize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the months ahead on the taxpayer's dime, Barron's reported in its August 18 edition.

The weekly financial newspaper said that such a move could wipe out existing holders of the agencies' common stock, with preferred shareholders and even holders of the two entities' $19 billion of subordinated debt also suffering losses.

An insider in the Bush administration told Barron's that Fannie and Freddie "are being jawboned" by the Treasury Department and their new regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), to raise more equity.

But government officials don't expect the agencies to succeed, Barron's reported.

If the government-sponsored enterprises fail to raise fresh capital, the administration is likely to mount its own recapitalization, with Treasury infusing taxpayer money into the agencies, according to the Barron's source.

The paper reported the infusion would take the form of a preferred stock with such seniority, dividend preference and convertibility rights that Fannie's and Freddie's existing common shares "effectively would be wiped out, and their preferred shares left bereft of dividends."

The report called an equity injection by the government a quasi-nationalization -- without having to put the agencies' liabilities on the U.S. balance sheet, and thus doubling the U.S. debt.

After accounting for deferred tax assets and generous asset marks, Fannie and Freddie each may have a negative $50 billion in asset value, and little prospect of digging themselves out of the hole, Barron's reported.

(Reporting by Ed Tobin, editing by Richard Chang)
Click to expand...
 
NOW, if they do this and even though they keep it off the Countries balance sheet. Will it make the dollar weaker because they created capital to Fred and Fan out of thin air. Increasing money supply thus decreasing dollar strength. I think so.
 
Last edited:
Show-me said:
NOW, if they do this and even though they keep it off the Counties balance sheet. Will it make the dollar weaker because they created capital to Fred and Fan out of thin air. Increasing money supply thus decreasing dollar strength. I think so.
Click to expand...


Oh yes, keep printing that money! Some say to expect ANOTHER stimulus check later this year. Gotta keep that spending habit up! Lets also keep recklessly using gasoline too and maybe we can finally break 150/barrel!

I'm like you, don't like the volume divergence as the markets have gone up. Also NASDAQ and RUT appear overbought. Financials not really participating...and will bring us all down. I can't wait for that July low retest. Gimme them cheap shares!

House prices still too high relative to income. The 20 year period 1980-2000 averaged about 3.5 X or so. That would suggest a 25% or so decrease yet to come! HELOC = a thing of the past. Savings = NIL.

pimco.jpg
 
They have no choice the way I see it. Have ya looked at the SKF chart? How beautifully it is finding support on the 200 sma coiling up for a retest of July lows.

Financials can not participate because they are suffering and the suffering is getting worse as Cuomo is cranking up the pressure and other states start participating in the election year feeding frenzy.
 
CP,

Your chart reminds me of a WSJ article about whether to blame the short seller for bring down the money lender or blaming the money lenders for inflating their stock price. Which is it? If the stock price was solid then the shorts would loose their asses on any short play, naked or not. As it is the stock prices must have been over inflated to a point for them to decline and stay down.

lol I like buying at these depressed prices.:D
 
Here is a good quote for Flags of our Fathers which I happen to be watching.

Bud Gerber: You know what they're calling this bond drive? The Mighty Seventh. They might've called it the "We're Flat ****ing Broke And Can't Even Afford Bullets So We're Begging For Your Pennies" bond drive, but it didn't have quite the ring. They could've called it that, though, because the last four bond drives came up so short we just printed money instead. Ask any smart boy on Wall Street, he'll tell you our dollar is next to worthless, we've borrowed so much. And nobody is lending any more. Ships aren't being built, tanks aren't being built, machine guns, bazookas, hand grenades, zip. You think this is a farce? You want to go back to your buddies? Well stuff some rocks in your pockets before you get on the plane, because that's all we got left to throw at the Japanese. And don't be surprised if your plane doesn't make it off the runway, because the fuel dumps are empty. And our good friends, the Arabs, are only taking bullion. If we don't raise $14 billion, and that's million with a "B," this war is over by the end of the month. We make a deal with the Japanese, we give whatever they want and we come home, because you've seen them fight, and they sure as **** ain't giving up. $14 billion! The last three drives didn't make that much all together.
Click to expand...

Haven't learned much have we.
 
Show-me said:
Subcontracting of mercenaries. We subcontracted the most ever during this war in order to avoid the draft and at a premium. The draft would have been political suicide for any politician, so any and all support roles were subcontracted out in order to use active duty personnel in combat roles. We even use mercenaries to the max with Blackwater. These companies paid top dollar to anyone who wanted to make good money in a combat zone. They recruited guys right off of the line with big money offers in comparison to what a lowly E-2, E-3, or E-4 was getting from their government.

An E-3 over 3 years in service base pay is $1790 a month plus no taxes, combat, haz duty pay, and benefits. So $21,500 a year or go to work for Blackwater for $50,000 to $80,000 plus depending of training, level of experience, with benefits, and tax free. Sign me up! Plus the tax payer got shafted when they lost that veteran because of all of the training dollars spent on them.

You could of drafted 3 Privates or more for what the subcontracting of one civilian cost the taxpayer, but you would have had to draft and that is a dirty word. So there is a huge price to pay if you want to avoid a draft and that price is subcontracting mercenaries.

Nobody had the will or the balls to use the draft or get out and instead they bent to the will of the people to protect their political carers. All are guilty, all are to blame, all are trying to save their jobs and not do the right thing but do what is going to keep them in office.

The people do not always know what is best for them or the country, but they have a vote and the career politician fears the vote.

So vote.

<steps off soapbox>
Click to expand...
<steps on soapbox>
We have an inexhaustible source of mercenaries with the will to kill already on the taxpayer dole...in our prisons and on our streets. Round em up, train em, arm em, offer them pardons or amnesties if they fight and survive, and send them over. Ever see The Dirty Dozen or The Devils Brigade?
 
luv2read said:
<steps on soapbox>
We have an inexhaustible source of mercenaries with the will to kill already on the taxpayer dole...in our prisons and on our streets. Round em up, train em, arm em, offer them pardons or amnesties if they fight and survive, and send them over. Ever see The Dirty Dozen or The Devils Brigade?
Click to expand...

A logical idea to serve your country for your freedom or forgiveness of your crimes. Not a popular one with the public.
 
OPEC official says output cuts may be needed

By MarketWatch
Last update: 3:09 p.m. EDT Aug. 16, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- An Iranian official in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Saturday that the producers group is considering leaving oil production levels unchanged or perhaps even trimming them to shore up flagging prices and defend market share.

"The market is oversupplied by at least 1 million barrels a day. If OPEC would like to remove this additional oil out of the market, then OPEC has to cut some production," OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi told Dow Jones in a telephone interview.
Click to expand...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/opec-official-says-falling-oil/story.aspx?guid=%7B3E5DE011-F4E6-478D-82CB-D124CDC06FA5%7D&dist=msr_1

Who's looking out for you?
 
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