Show-me Account Talk

[Show-me]

The Week Ahead

Last Update: 27-Jun-08 10:09 ET

Market participants get next Friday off in observance of Independence Day. The shortened week is packed with economic reports, which will keep traders busy leading up to the extended weekend.

Several market-moving items are on the Economic Calendar. Added attention will be given to the government's nonfarm payroll reading for June. Payrolls are expected to slip by 55,000 and the unemployment rate is expected to tick lower to 5.4% from 5.5%.

The Earnings Calendar is on the light side, and there are not any market-moving names confirmed to report. H&R Block (HRB), Constellation Brands (STZ) and Apollo Group (APOL) are the more widely held names on the calendar.
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Monday, June 30:

• Earnings: H & R Block (HRB)
• Economic Data: Chicago PMI (June), Revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June)
• Events: None
• Conferences: Nasdaq OMX Group Food and Restaurant Industry Forum
• Fed Speakers: Atlanta Fed President Lockhart to participate in a Georgetown University panel discussion on the economy (6:00 PM ET)

Tuesday, July 1:

• Earnings: Constellation Brands (STZ), Apollo Group (APOL)
• Economic Data: Construction Spending (May)... ISM Index (June)
• Events: July auto sales reports... Treasury Secretary Paulson speaks about the market and economy (11:00 PM ET)
• Conferences: None
• Fed Speakers: None

Wednesday, July 2:

• Earnings: Family Dollar (FDO)
• Economic Data: ADP Private Employment Payrolls (June)... Factory Orders (May)
• Events: Weekly Crude Inventories (week ended June 28)
• Conferences: None
• Fed Speakers: Fed Governor Mishkin speaks at a conference in Israel on global financial disruption (12:00 PM ET)

Thursday, July 3:

• Earnings: Corel Corporation (CREL)
• Economic Data: Nonfarm payrolls (June)... ISM Services (June)... Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (week ended June 28)
• Events: Bond markets and financial futures and option markets close early in observance of Independence Day
• Conferences: None
• Fed Speakers: None

Friday, July 4:
Markets Closed for Independence Day Holiday

 

[Show-me]

The big one will be nonfarm payrolls on Thrusday.:worried:

 

[vectorman]

Don't like going against Oscar, but I see the same picture just a different way to get there. Next week will be the nail biter.

Here's some trivial info. I looked at the historic monthly C fund returns going back to 1988 at the TSP Gov site ( http://www.tsp.gov/). Only two times did the C fund finish less than -10 for the month. In both cases the following months were pretty positive.

1988 Aug (-14.47), Sept 6.33, Oct 8.19, Nov 6.04, Dec 5.76

2002 Sept (-10.87), Oct 8.77, Nov 5.87

So far the C fund is down (-12.02) for the month looking at this site.

http://www.tspmoney.com/tspm_tool.php?toolname=historical_chart_tool

Good Luck.

 

[vectorman]

Here's some trivial info. I looked at the historic monthly C fund returns going back to 1988 at the TSP Gov site ( http://www.tsp.gov/). Only two times did the C fund finish less than -10 for the month. In both cases the following months were pretty positive.

1988 Aug (-14.47), Sept 6.33, Oct 8.19, Nov 6.04, Dec 5.76

2002 Sept (-10.87), Oct 8.77, Nov 5.87

So far the C fund is down (-12.02) for the month looking at this site.

http://www.tspmoney.com/tspm_tool.php?toolname=historical_chart_tool

Good Luck.

oops....sorry...typed in wrong number above. C fund down (-8.54) for the month of June so far. So if there is more downside Monday, it may help produce a nice positive for July.

 

[Show-me]

"We are on the edge of a bear market." Good quote! For the record I am bearish and am playing the bounce only. My fear is that I may be early.

 

[FogSailing]

Thanks Vector...I think we'll have a positivie bounce soon...I just hope it waits until July when i came IFT back in..

FS

 

[Corepuncher]

Thanks Vector...I think we'll have a positivie bounce soon...I just hope it waits until July when i came IFT back in..

FS

I think you are in luck...July starts tomorrow!

 

[Show-me]

I'm in to win!!! June was a butt kicking month.

 

[FogSailing]

Seasonality says we'll see positive territory early in the month. But this year has been anything but typical...and with the issue of S&P capitulation standing out there...I'm not in that jump in and see what happens mood..

I hope for some kind of signal from the Fed, VIX, or other that gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling...I miss those..

FS

 

[Show-me]

Waters are receding!

Having buyers remorse on my 50% stake in the S fund. I could shift it all to the C fund tomorrow as it is a new month and it would vaporize one of my two IFT's. Only thing I hate about the C fund is the huge financial weight.

Equities took a beating in June as vectorman pointed out. Thanks for the post V-man, got me thinking a little bit. Odds are good for a bounce. Here is a link that shows the H&S pattern pretty well.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87275088066

1388 is the left shoulder and 1440 the head. A run back to 1388 would be beautiful but a run to 1360 to 1370 is more realistic.

 

[Show-me]

Seasonality says we'll see positive territory early in the month. But this year has been anything but typical...and with the issue of S&P capitulation standing out there...I'm not in that jump in and see what happens mood..

I hope for some kind of signal from the Fed, VIX, or other that gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling...I miss those..

FS

I'm reading that the Fed will do nothing but sit on their hands. Election year!:blink:

 

[Show-me]

I will add that the chart I posted is also a nice triple bottom.

 

[Birchtree]

S&P financials are now only a 14% weighting. Energy is going to be the next heavy player.

 

[Show-me]

S&P financials are now only a 14% weighting. Energy is going to be the next heavy player.

Birch,

More like 16.8% for financials as of 3/31/08 and it is the largest segment. Info Tech is 15.7% and energy is 13.25%.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_500_Factsheet.pdf

 

[Show-me]

Worst performing sector down almost 30% YTD with 90 companies represented. All sectors are down YTD except energy and materials.

Here is a good link to see how it is broken down.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/po...ices_500/2,3,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html

 

[Birchtree]

Your information is dated 3/31/08 - times have gotten worse since then, especially for the financials. Still I'm happy to buy them for the longer term - will most likely pick up a few more tomorrow.

 

[Show-me]

Click refresh or F5 to get the numbers to download.

 

[Show-me]

Your information is dated 3/31/08 - times have gotten worse since then, especially for the financials. Still I'm happy to buy them for the longer term - will most likely pick up a few more tomorrow.

Long term they may be a good buy if your immortal. Short term "tsp" I'm kick'n your ass!

 

[Show-me]

Luv ya Birch!

 

[Birchtree]

A luv that hurts my behind - let's see how the next six months go. We've already come down 3,000 points in 9 months - that'll be made up with a couple more thousand to spare. No one sees it coming - can it be a bear market if everyone realizes the situation - I don't think so. There's a ton of liquidity available that'll be looking for a home when we have a yield shortage because rates may move lower - where can money make money. I'm trying to buy myself into happiness on these lows - will the market go even lower, perhaps, and I'll just buy more until it really hurts - no pain no gain. That's what they taught you at Paris Island - remember.