Show-me Account Talk

[Show-me]

Well, this looks like a deal breaker to me. Can you say default.

The Financial Times said it had obtained a copy of the proposal showing Germany wants a new euro zone "budget commissioner" to have the power to veto budget decisions taken by the Greek government if they are not in line with targets set by international lenders.

"Given the disappointing compliance so far, Greece has to accept shifting budgetary sovereignty to the European level for a certain period of time," the document said.

Under the German plan, Athens would only be allowed to carry out normal state spending after servicing its debt, the FT said.
"If a future (bail-out) tranche is not disbursed, Greece cannot threaten its lenders with a default, but will instead have to accept further cuts in primary expenditures as the only possible consequence of any non-disbursement," the FT quoted the document as saying.

The German demands for greater control over Greek budget policy come amid intense talks to finalize a second 130 billion-euro rescue package for Greece, which has repeatedly failed to meet the fiscal targets set out for it by its international lenders.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/27/us-eurozone-greece-germany-idUSTRE80Q1ZF20120127

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Well, this looks like a deal breaker to me. Can you say default.

Eerily familiar of Germany, isn't it? :blink:

 

[Show-me]

The Greeks hate Merkel and Germany because they are controlling the purse strings. NOW, they want even more control and a budget Gestapo overlord to force them to pay their debts and the Greek government gets whats left over...........................................

 

[Show-me]

And, they should because it's their money.

 

[Show-me]

Golden Cross

These are interesting statistics...........................

Another reason to use the stratagy of maintaining a core position in the market during a bull run.

As early as Monday, the rising 50-day moving average of the S&P 500 could tick above its rising 200-day moving average. This occurrence - known as a golden cross - means the medium-term momentum is increasingly bullish. You have a good chance of making money in the next six months if you put it to work in large-cap stocks.

In the last 50 years, according to data compiled by Birinyi Associates, a golden cross on the S&P 500 has augured further gains six months ahead in eight out of 10 times. The average gain has been 6.6 percent.

That means the benchmark is on solid footing to not only hold onto the 14 percent advance over the last nine weeks, but to flirt with 1,400, a level it hasn't hit since mid-2008.

The gains, as expected, would not be in a straight line. But any weakness could be used by long-term investors as buying opportunities.

"The cross is an intermediate bullish event," Schlitz said. "You have to interpret it as constructive, but I caution people to take a bullish stance, if they have a short-term horizon ."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-...BzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3

 

[Show-me]

The trend is your friend!

It is simple, the trend is your friend and as of now the C, S and I fund are trending up. The I fund is not one I trust or play, but it is tempting with the dollar declining so rapidly. The EFA long term trend line coincides with the 200 sma. Something to watch.

If you draw a trend line on the $SPX April closing high to the July closing high and extend it out you will see that Wed. pierced the trend line and retreated the next two days. It could mean nothing because you can manipulate the chart to see what you want to see. If you draw the same trend line on the $EMW (S fund) you land around 715 but as time marches on and the trend line is extended out that target will decrease. As of today that target represents another 5.9% potential in the S fund before it hits the trend line, its possible. Remember that with time the potential and target decreases and that would make it even more possible IMO.

For me personally my emotions led me to ladder some of my account to the G fund. My "plan" forced me to realize that my emotions are not a good market indicator so I have a 55% core position still in the S fund. It will stay there until I get a clear signal that the trend is breaking and I am watching the SS signals from Coolhand to help me confirm the chart break down. Laddering out to lock in some nice gains is not all bad, it would take around a 10% drop in the S fund to wipe out my current gains. I would hopefully be out long before that happened and preserve some of those points. My goal is 2% per month so I'm trying not to be too greedy and not risk my current return, which by the way is better than my entire last year return.

I am eliminating my ability to "see" the tracker standings page every day and will use a direct link to my personal performance within the tracker only. This will help me remove any bad moves attributied to any competitiveness or tracker envy. All driven by emotions. Nothing worse that staying too long obsessing over a ranking or not vesting because you think you are protecting a ranking. With the limited IFT you can not "reset" a bad mistake.

 

[James48843]

Re: The trend is your friend!

Hehehe.... He said "tracker envy."



Hehehehehe.

 

[berline]

So, Is it safe to think that if Monday is an up day, this "Golden Cross" will happen? Or, is it more of an "up week" kinda thing?

 

[Show-me]

So, Is it safe to think that if Monday is an up day, this "Golden Cross" will happen? Or, is it more of an "up week" kinda thing?

With the momentum of the 50 sma it does not matter what the next week bring the "Cross" will happen.

 

[Show-me]

If I was to take a stab at it I would say Monday could be a up day on the S&P. Two day rule from Oscar.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: The trend is your friend!

Eliminating the ability to see the tracker might be a smart move. I have separated tracker vs. actual. One of the reasons is the reset. My gains and losses does not reset every year in my actual account.
My account allocations are not always tracking. One reason is contributions which makes the %'s different. The other is I'm quicker to lock in gains in the actual account where I take more risk on the tracker.

 

[KevinD]

Re: The trend is your friend!

It is simple, the trend is your friend

Thanks Show-me...

 

[Show-me]

Look at the bold type, this is like China telling the USA how and where to spend its budget monies.............................

Greece now requires 145 billion euros for the second bailout, 15 billion euros more than was agreed in October, Der Spiegel reported Jan. 28, citing an unidentified official from the troika in Greece.

As a possible condition of the bailout, European policy makers are discussing plans to directly intervene in Greek budget decisions as the country struggles to cut its deficit, according to two euro-region government officials.

Patience with Greece “is really coming close to the limit,” Philipp Roesler, chief of Germany’s Free Democratic Party, the junior coalition partner. “Time is running out. There can only be additional help if the Greek government carries out the necessary reforms.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/29/us-usa-stocks-weekahead-idUSTRE80R02F20120129

 

[Show-me]

In the last 50 years, according to data compiled by Birinyi Associates, a golden cross on the S&P 500 has augured further gains six months ahead in eight out of 10 times. The average gain has been 6.6 percent.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/29/us-usa-stocks-weekahead-idUSTRE80R02F20120129

LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL!!!!

Or not!

Less than halfway into the earnings season and with Greek debt talks over the weekend, payrolls data this week and the S&P 500 near its highest since July, there is plenty of room for something to go wrong. If that happens, the market could easily give back some of its recent advance.

But the benchmark's recent rally and momentum shift allow for a pullback before the technical picture deteriorates.

"We bounced off 1,325, which is resistance. We're testing 1,310, which should be support. We are stuck in that range," said Ken Polcari, managing director at ICAP Equities in New York.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Things of interest from some non-equities charts.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LdPemrTRLc

 

[Show-me]

UN warns world lacks food

UN warns world lacks food

In a grim warning about the earth's increasing demand for resources, the report found demand will grow exponentially as the global population rises from 7 billion people to an expected 9 billion by 2040.

Within the next 20 years the world's population will need 50 per cent more food, 45 percent more energy and 30 percent more water, according to UN estimates.

http://abcasiapacificnews.com/stories/201201/3419149.htm

You can feed and water X amount of cattle on X amount of pasture.

 

[Show-me]

Re: UN warns world lacks food

What a great January! The trend IS our friend so ride the wave.

Well this has been one heck of a run up and I do see some familiar things and some things of concern. First the $SPX and $TRAN paused after its last run up just like before, the only difference is the $SPX pulled back "below" the last pop and neither made a higher high as before. Now the $EMW is much more in line with the pause and pop pattern but I never use it as a marker because it is a freak. The S&P and the Dow Trans are my markers with support from the VIX, AGG and TBT. The TBT is a concern, the ultra short 20 year bond ETF. As investors sell out of bonds that causes the yield to rise and that helps entice them back into bonds. The TBT show that investors are still in love with bond buuuuut the chart looks like it is bottoming out and rounding upward a bit. That to me signals that this equities run up is chasing investors out of bonds.

P.S. Also, notice on the $SPX how it touched the 20 sma and also formed a perfect bottoming tail. PERFECT!

We have a 30 year treasury sale on 9th........................... Will we get the pull back?

Well done to the tracker folks last month, remember one thing risk/reward goes both ways and that is why I got nervous and jumped ship. My saving grace was the the blog from Tom and the discussion on the MB about keeping a core position in a bull market. Best move I made in a while, thanks.

 

[Show-me]

Re: UN warns world lacks food

Ya gotta love these stories.

The job cuts would include 4,600 maintenance workers, 4,200 baggage handlers, 2,300 flight attendants, 1,400 management and support employees and 400 pilots.
If American and its three unions can’t agree on changes, the company could ask a bankruptcy judge in New York to throw out existing labor contracts and impose the company’s conditions on workers. Federal law requires the company to first make a good-faith effort to negotiate agreements with its workers.

A maintenance-overhaul facility in Fort Worth, Texas, would close and some maintenance would be outsourced, a move that American has long resisted. Aircraft-cleaning and fueling work would also be outsourced, and pilots and flight attendants could work more hours.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/lifes...to-cut-costs/2012/02/01/gIQA94G9iQ_story.html

 

[nasa1974]

Re: UN warns world lacks food

Ya gotta love these stories.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/lifes...to-cut-costs/2012/02/01/gIQA94G9iQ_story.html

I thought the FAA limited the hours pilots could work, because of fatigue.

 

[Show-me]

Re: UN warns world lacks food

They must be losing market share and routes. Bad news is coming for them no matter what, they can not continue in their current form. Very sad for the DFW area.