Show-me Account Talk

[Frixxxx]

Hey, not big deal. I took some of Oscar's rules and some from the STA.

Two down days and we might get a pop. If Friday does not finish green I will hold until Monday. If we get a Friday and Monday red, I will freak out because that is a bad omen.

Share with us your crystal ball readings Show-me!:laugh:

 

[fedgolfer]

Re: Risk

I'm watching also, show-me...
- all charts relevant are currently bouncing on their 5Oma's - well off : Semi's, Trans, NAS100, ...DAQ). As for dollar USD bounced off its 200 ma, UUP is falling within within its BB20.
Suggests to me to hold until Monday.:worried:
FWIW.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EFA&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p55192775979
Check Bollinger's on this one..
(Only hope to help)
VR

What I don't like about several of the leading indicators/indexes at the IFT cutoff time is that several appear to have fallen below the 50-day support line and then hit its head on the 50-day line... which could be interpreted as shifting from support to resistance. On purely technical level, once price falls below the 50 day MA, this is seen as bearish intermediate term and the downward slide to the 100 DMA and 200 DMA can quickly acclerate as volatility increases. Is it for real or like in late Oct/early Nov, just a multi-day bear trap?

 

[Show-me]

Well you can't win them all. If Monday finishes in the red, we could see the big one. Greed got the best of me but I could salvage the month. January barometer predicts rest of year.

 

[poolman]

Well you can't win them all. If Monday finishes in the red, we could see the big one. Greed got the best of me but I could salvage the month. January barometer predicts rest of year.

"January barometer predicts rest of year"

Answer I was looking for this morning. Thanks Show-me.

You just got caught in a bad trade Show-me. You know we have all done it. I still think you will be positive this evening.

Have you looked at P3 Scenario ? I'm not worried about it unless we start dropping under 10 percent.

 

[FAB1]

Must be nice just to be Positive - Im feeling a bit Negatory rite now meself.

 

[Show-me]

Friday sell off was harder than I expected. Thanks BHO for taking your anger out on the banks for your loss in Massachusetts . Little late after you gave them the keys to the Treasury.

 

[Nordic]

Friday sell off was harder than I expected. Thanks BHO for taking your anger out on the banks for your loss in Massachusetts . Little late after you gave them the keys to the Treasury.

Well, today didn't work out well for the I fund gamble, will be interesting to see what the first couple days of next week bring. I'll probably be out by Tuesday regardless. Just looking for a short term oversold bounce as an exit to the 'pad.

 

[Show-me]

Whooo, what a change on the leader board! USO and USD on opposite sides of the 200 dma and many indicies below the 50 sma.

Will the market buy it back next week?

It will be a long shot.

 

[WorkFE]

A longer shot would be me winning the lotto tonite but I would not expect us to take back losses anytime soon, not in 1 week anyway. We may continue down another 3-5 before it bottoms. IMO. which is probably a pretty good Idea for me to hit the garage on Monday. I just hate locking in losses.

 

[airlift]

A longer shot would be me winning the lotto tonite but I would not expect us to take back losses anytime soon, not in 1 week anyway. We may continue down another 3-5 before it bottoms. IMO. which is probably a pretty good Idea for me to hit the garage on Monday. I just hate locking in losses.

If one is down so much already, is it not better to ride this out and wait for a better exit point. I mean, unless we are really not recovering during February?

Show-me, what do you think of the potential recovery at this stage. Other opinions are welcome. Today is one day that I wish I could still hear Birchtree's positive take on the markets!

 

[WorkFE]

Absolutely if one believes or there are indicators that point to some upside in the near future then one would ride it out. However if I thought the S&P was headed to sub 1000 in the next few weeks I could cut bait now at -2% for the year and reenter at say 950 or what ever the level is when sentiment changes. (Buy Low Sell High) A concept that escapes me often:laugh:
The gain will not show on the tracker except %. The gain would be when you jump back in with your G money will be more C,S,I shares (What ever your fav is) than when you got out.
If you are nearing retirement Quality Is Power
If you have time on your side Quantity is (accumulating shares) is the play. IMHO

 

[Show-me]

Just throwing out thoughts.

Watch all of Poolman's video's this morning with coffee and it seems the consensus is that we get a "dead cat bounce" or "relief rally" then head lower. All appear to to believe we will head much lower.

One trader thought one or two day bounce.

This would be consistent with my thoughts that the January Barometer will show a negative month thus a negative year. That would be consistent with the 1st or 2nd year of a new Presidential Cycle being down. BHO first year was up big time on artificial stimulus. Time to pay the piper. Also, the month of February is very weak and the end of the best six months is at a close.

Riding the wave down is fine unless we correct 10% to 20% and go flat the rest of the season. So I will sell a loss to manage the worst.

 

[Warrenlm]

And here Dennis had us all believing we could relax until spring or summer. Then he ups and disappears after only one 5% move.

 

[JTH]

Yea buddy it's a tough spot to be in. I was going to IFT and re-balance at the end of the month, but I think I'll hold off and let my G-fund accumulate more cash. We've already retraced 50% from the November low, we seem to have a lot of memory/support at these levels. I'd like to see us hold these levels, if we don't....

View attachment 8054

 

[Show-me]

I will hang out Monday and possibly Tuesday. FOMC meeting this week and end of the month window dressing. Remember the FOMC is starting to show some divide.

 

[poolman]

I will hang out Monday and possibly Tuesday. FOMC meeting this week and end of the month window dressing. Remember the FOMC is starting to show some divide.

This is True Show-me. I heard Cramer (SP) say last night that if Bernanke (SP) or Timothy Geitner (SP) is not re-appointed the Dow will drop 1,000 points Guaranteed. 19 day's left for Bernanke and no talk about re-appointment. Jot it down in your Notes. When is the FOMC meeting ?

18 day's for Bernanke.

 

[eccougar]

I have the same feeling about a drop, if Bernanke is not confirmed.

 

[grandma]

-was it here, a link, or in the daily paper ? that said folks might think the Known (Bernake) was better than the Unknown (the next appointee) - because no one seemed to have an idea of who the replacement might be?

Are Pelosi & Reid honest in their declarations that they will not back him - or do they already know they will continue to, & the declaration is a smoke-screen for when they Do back him; & give the above excuse (unknown vs known), or some-other `well-sounding' reason to continue with Bernake?

What happened to the call we were hearing for an Audit ???

 

[Show-me]

26th and 27th is the meeting and as much as I dislike Ben, not confirming him would be a disaster for the markets.

 

[poolman]

Thanks Show-me,

Notes Taken.