Show-me Account Talk

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well, shoot - I thought maybe this was going to be a take off on Ted Dekker's book `house' -
...didn't take very long to Clear That Thought up ! Yuuk !!
 
What will next week bring? Seems that many believe we get a bounce and the fact of the sheer number that think that concerns me. Over analyzing?

This week will be exciting one way or the other. :D
 
My exit relies on the bounce to save some face but you may be right on over analyzing.
Cannot overemphasize reading that recent post by Uptrend. Very good
 
Technical traders are screaming the correction is coming.

Expect a dead cat bounce is the comment that is going around. One or two days at the most.

Elliot Wave is calling a down push.

Oscar's OMNI indicator flip flopping, which mean change.

Starting to set up for all the Stock Trader Almanac possibilities.

Caution, caution, caution. Risk, risk, risk.
 
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Show-me said:
Technical traders are screaming the correction is coming.

Expect a dead cat bounce is the comment that is going around. One or two days at the most.

Elliot Wave is calling a down push.

Oscar's OMNI indicator flip flopping, which mean change.

Starting to set up for all the Stock Trader Almanac possibilities.

Caution, caution, caution. Risk, risk, risk.
Click to expand...

Truth is everything was overvalued anyways. Even if Bernanky gets approved and President Obama lays low on the banks, what hype is left to push up the markets? I still believe there's a strong chance we'll trade sidways from here, but we've already broken into the lower November trading range and it happend rather quickly.

This is what I call a Market temper tantrum...:notrust:
 
JTH said:
This is what I call a Market temper tantrum...:notrust:
Click to expand...

I beliwve we have the GDP next Thursday coming out. 4th Q might be ok, and give a markets a boast. This could set up a tiny counter trend rally for wave 2 of a 5 way down. So if SPX channel boundary holds lets say at 1075 for the end of wave one, then a 38.2% fibonacci retrace would go to 1103, and 50% would be 1112. Looks to me we will bounce after the channel boundary is hit, and IMO this could be the catalyst. To catch these little bounces, you will need to be a timing genius or have good luck.
 
Oscar is getting concerned with the past three day action. "Flat tops produce market tops." "A seller of rallies." "A fundamental shift in the markets." These are some of the key phrases he is using on his recent video.

His proprietary moving average looks like it is around the 80 day simple moving average. He has 22 markets that raced down to the OMNI average.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$FTSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p14106692187

At the very least caution is the word of the day.

FOMC meeting this week.

Bernanke conformation this week.

BB lower band violated on many US and world indicies. Continued violation of the lower BB can occur if the plunge is like the one before the March lows.

USD has a double top and against the 200 dma. A decline in the dollar is good for my I fund position.

A bounce is due in most markets. Nothing goes straight down.

For now I ride the wave.

I have enough cushion to take a HUGE RISK to make some points.

We are about 2% below the January close. Remember January Barometer.

Last trading days of January and first trading days of February usually positive.

Risk, risk, risk, caution, caution, caution.
 
Well, we got a bounce. Can it form into something more or will it die after the State of the Union speech?

One thing that is shifting is earnings season. Usually that is a positive season with the earning but it would seem that they are selling the news.

I am feeling like I will set tight in the I fund for a few more days.
 
Uptrend said:
I beliwve we have the GDP next Thursday coming out. 4th Q might be ok, and give a markets a boast. This could set up a tiny counter trend rally for wave 2 of a 5 way down. So if SPX channel boundary holds lets say at 1075 for the end of wave one, then a 38.2% fibonacci retrace would go to 1103, and 50% would be 1112. Looks to me we will bounce after the channel boundary is hit, and IMO this could be the catalyst. To catch these little bounces, you will need to be a timing genius or have good luck.
Click to expand...

The only problem with GDP is that the government IS the GDP.

A agree Show Me...they HAVE been selling the news. Even a smashing APPLE report is only up 0.9% after hours. 1020-1030 here we come.
 
My reason for holding out this long in the I fund is that the overseas markets have not "bounced" yet. FTSE is down four days in a row. USO and USD are both on 200 dma. I see a bounce in the FTSE and NIKK. I see a drop in the dollar.

Risk, risk, risk, risk, risk, finger on the button. :nuts:
 
Well my pucker string is very tight right now. :sick: I still have hope for a bounce and the FOMC meeting gave us a late bounce that did not reflect in the I fund. We shall see what tomorrow brings.:worried:
 
Show-me said:
Well my pucker string is very tight right now. :sick: I still have hope for a bounce and the FOMC meeting gave us a late bounce that did not reflect in the I fund. We shall see what tomorrow brings.:worried:
Click to expand...

I-Fund has swung over 6% on the downside this month! :nuts:
 
It is at the bottom of the channel and the USD is right above the 200 day sma.

This is a pivotal moment in the markets and the dollar. Stand bye.

State of the Union in 9 minutes. :)
 
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