Show-me Account Talk

[Show-me]

Off the grid.

Well I am going to be off the grid all morning as I have a retirement ceremony to go to this morning. I wish I could see the action but life goes on. I would expect a flat to positive day due to no ED or earnings to speak off. I will buy a little today even though it will be a blind buy. Monday should be flat to down due to the release of the FOMC minutes and I will dip in a little more.

I will spread it evenly across CSI.

 

[CorMaGa34]

Show-Me,

Your thinking about spreading into CSI reminded me of what Dave Ramsey recommended the other day on his radio talk-show on the ideal distro of TSP funds:

C 60%
S 20%
I 20%

I am still thinking about it...

 

[Show-me]

I'm learning it is very hard to pick the exact correct fund unless I see something jump out on a chart, so a spread will work for me.

I'm easing in because I think Monday will be down to flat due to the fact the FOMC minutes will be release on Tuesday.

Thanksgiving is historically a good week, but so was this week and today will tell the tale. Trays upright and seat belts buckled.

Good luck.

 

[Show-me]

I am beginning to waffle on the amount of my allocations. I will bump it up a bit and have cash ready for Monday if we get a drop. Today is feeling like a afternoon sell off.

 

[Show-me]

I based my decision on the trading history in the STA, the GREEN futures, and the weak FTSE this morning.

Good luck everyone and happy weekend!!!

 

[nnuut]

I am beginning to waffle on the amount of my allocations. I will bump it up a bit and have cash ready for Monday if we get a drop. Today is feeling like a afternoon sell off.

You SWABS know what they say:
Green sky in morning, Traders take warning! Green sky at night, Traders delight!:worried:

 

[FogSailing]

That reminds me of another saying..."My kingdom for a GREEN SKY"...

FS

 

[Show-me]

Hey, just got back and what a day. Up, down, up, down, and a last minute up, up, up. At least I got the S fund for a bargain and if it breaks down on Monday, I'll buy some more.

 

[Show-me]

Come on Show-me needs a short rally!!!

Good morning world!!!

Normally when I write some, what I seem to think is, serous commentary the market falls down in a pile around me. Use this as a indicator a consider yourself warned.

Seasonality is very strong right now, even with the reality of how bad things are getting. I did not think we would see a positive finish to last week even thought the STA did called it. Bravo! Friday was the day that pulled it off. Talk about waiting until the last minute too.

Now seasonality is in play this week. We have limited Economic Data and no Fed speakers. Earning is another story with all of the retail earnings coming out. Campbell, Lowe's, HP, Nordstrom, Barnes & Noble, BJ's Wholesale, DR Horton, Freddie Mac, Gamestop, Hormel, Target, Borders Group, Limited, Whole Food, Foot Locker, Abercrombie, and Gap Inc. This could put a hammer to the seasonality trade with the latest retail warning we received.

The 800 pound gorilla in the room will be the release of the FOMC Minutes. These can be spun how ever the market whats to take it and on a Holiday week I hope they filter out the bad until the following Friday or Monday. That being said I feel that Monday will be the day of jitters in anticipation of the minutes. Tuesday will be a crap shoot.

I looked at the FTSE, USD, and S&P for the last five years. I see that it is a very bullish week for the S&P and not that exciting for the FTSE and USD. In 2006 the FTSE went of a death spiral that week. So with two factors that determine final share price in the I fund I will avoid it on this trade.

I will take my chance and buy 25% more on Monday and Tuesday to catch any weakness. My exit will be Wednesday because over the last five years the market action on Friday was negligible and I'm not going to worry about what may or may not happen over my Thanksgiving meal.

My ultimate hope would be to make a run to the 200dma or the 20dma and then fall back. A retest of the 200dma would be a good set up for another run down Friday or Monday.

That is the way I see it and that means it won't happen.

 

[Show-me]

What do you think?

 

[CountryBoy]

Show-me

For what it's worth, I agree with what you’ve said and along with Tom’s seasonality graph, I’ll probably dip my toe in for Tuesday (25 to 50%) and maybe a little more on Wednesday (50 to 75%), if things look good. I’m not sure what to do for Friday. If I don’t get beat up too much on Tuesday and Wednesday, I’ll hold for Friday, but otherwise I’ll go into CP mode.

I've been hearing and reading that the Europeans are rushing to buy our goods this season, since the dollar is so cheap. Is that good for the I? I just hate playing the I Fund on my thoughts alone, since they seem to always get me into trouble.

What is playing on the back of my mind is that the big boys, will drive the market down so Uncle Ben will be forced to drop at least another 25%. To me he has capitulated to their wishes already and they’ll try to force him again. What I’m not knowledgeable enough about is, would the big boys do that during this time of year, a lot of folks make mucho bucks over the holidays, or would they wait until January to start putting the squeeze on Ben? I think we’re just along for the ride.

Just thinking out loud and then it's best to do just the opposite of my ramblings also.

CB

 

[hessian]

What is playing on the back of my mind is that the big boys, will drive the market down so Uncle Ben will be forced to drop at least another 25%. To me he has capitulated to their wishes already and they’ll try to force him again. What I’m not knowledgeable enough about is, would the big boys do that during this time of year, a lot of folks make mucho bucks over the holidays, or would they wait until January to start putting the squeeze on Ben? CB

Hey Country,
My personal thinking is pretty close to yours (for ALL the same reasons) - would the Big-Boys put the squeeze on Ben now? - or wait until Jan? I'm betting on the latter (perhaps literally). IMO seasonality & need for profits, may trump a desire to squeeze markets at this time of year!

I also am beginning to see light at end of tunnel, re: sub-prime debacle - meaning last week a good amount of transparency came out (and while its known there's more out there), IMO much uncertainty on this may have eased (at least for now), and also much now "factored-in". Uncertainty's been the main thing holding the markets back, and IMO, we have perhaps already begun to see this ease. I also agree w/taking an opposite view (so I expect others will disagree)!
VR

 

[CountryBoy]

Hey Country,
My personal thinking is pretty close to yours (for ALL the same reasons) - would the Big-Boys put the squeeze on Ben now? - or wait until Jan? I'm betting on the latter (perhaps literally). IMO seasonality & need for profits, may trump a desire to squeeze markets at this time of year!

I also am beginning to see light at end of tunnel, re: sub-prime debacle - meaning last week a good amount of transparency came out (and while its known there's more out there), IMO much uncertainty on this may have eased (at least for now), and also much now "factored-in". Uncertainty's been the main thing holding the markets back, and IMO, we have perhaps already begun to see this ease. I also agree w/taking an opposite view (so I expect others will disagree)!
VR

Hey VR,

I think we're starting to see some light also, but I just have a bad feeling that after the holidays, the other shoe will drop around February, re: sub-prime and some of this "paper" that the brokers are still holding. So let's make money now and enjoy the Holidays, cause I have a feeling 2008 is gonna be tough.

CB

 

[Show-me]

CountryBoy,

As far as the I fund goes, if the Euro folks are buying our goods the C fund is the fund to benefit. American companies selling goods to them and sending the profits back to America. They would also be buying Chinese made good being the Yuan is tied directly to the Dollar. Cheap Dollar, cheap Yuan.

I'm sure the Big Boyz are cussing and discussing what to do next. They do like to profit on Thanksgiving week, but they do want to manipulate the Fed some more. I'm with hessian on this one and think they will wait until after the Holiday.

Another thing it the up coming "Black Friday" shopping mayhem. If sales are down you will hear about it in the coming day and that will push the markets down, down, down. I worry that the retailer that are reporting earning will rain on my parade.

Ben Bernanke is officially a market whore so I have no idea what his next move is. He has sent the message that inflation is a concern and that the Fed will do what is necessary to help the economy. Just remember you can not turn the Hindenburg or Titanic on a dime.

Certain folks, me included, that were saying the economy is weak and inflation is high months ago were call a lot of things. It took the market forever to start the turn and subprime was the catalyst. Now they are all capitulating and saying energy and inflation are eating into the consumers pocket book. Well NO SH#T!!! I knew that a year ago, but the cheerleaders kept cheering and the inflation data is corrupt.

Have you read Robo's piece on the inflation data being corrupt? Read it!!!! Link here. http://www.safehaven.com/article-8848.htm No matter how boring it seems and you will see they have dumbed down the CPI and PPI to keep the psychology pumped up. Also, it keeps the Government and certain companies from having to give wage increases based of CPI data. Can you say COLA!!! By dumbing down the data they have save tons of money.

And let us not forget the ever shrinking size of consumer products. Make'em smaller and keep the price the same so that is "seems" that food inflation is not a problem. Small changes over time will go unnoticed by the vast majority. I would like to know how that is playing out in the CPI reports.

 

[Show-me]

Hey VR,

I think we're starting to see some light also, but I just have a bad feeling that after the holidays, the other shoe will drop around February, re: sub-prime and some of this "paper" that the brokers are still holding. So let's make money now and enjoy the Holidays, cause I have a feeling 2008 is gonna be tough.

CB

Bingo! Don't fight the tape or the market makers. Just be ready when it all falls in a pile.

 

[hessian]

Bingo! Don't fight the tape or the market makers. Just be ready when it all falls in a pile.

Hi Show-me,
I think were all seeing generally same picture shaping up.

1st I agree to be on watch, as always, but IMO, concerns are going to come next after the Christmas season - After that, its anyone's guess. [Then the "big-boys" may want to take up action again for another rate cut.] For now though, I think Uncle Ben has been "telescopinging" inflation & similar messages - telling "Big-boys" to basically simmer down, you're not getting crap now! (so "they" should sit down and shut up for now - maybe later - early as Jan/maybe Feb.

Another point to consider - this season could be biggest we've er seen! Foreigners are coming to the US, & buying everything in sight! Flying in with multiple bags-all empty! Flying back home-those same bags are all overflowing. For them its like at Macy's - well, like we shop the local 5&10's / Dollar Stores!!! I just cant see any "Black Friday" shopping problems, (except maybe seeing even more total mayhem than usual!). Just IMHO.

Related, but separate, further rate cuts now would devestate our dollar even more! - I think the big-boys know this could hurt US and World Markets, which is further reason that I again think "they" have already decded to back off until early 2008.
VR

 

[hessian]

Oh,
Forgot, you might want look over this chart that Tom had posted.

View attachment 2597

 

[Show-me]

hessian,

The retail numbers that really count will not come in until February. Novembers will come out December 13 and that could be a tuff week. December 10 - 14 we have CPI, PPI, and retail. Yee haw!!!

Black Friday may be a big day because I am hearing a lot more hype about getting out and buying the sales on the news and radio. People go out to buy the sales and spend more than they plan.

Good link for retail sales. http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/retail.htm

Good link for consumer credit. http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/credit.htm

 

[Show-me]

Here's a good headline. Our enemies are loving this and our politician and market leaders are clueless or to greedy to care.

OPEC to Consider Non-Dollar Reserves- AP
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Sunday that OPEC's members have expressed interest in converting their cash reserves into a currency other than the depreciating U.S. dollar, which he called a "worthless piece of paper."


View attachment 2598

 

[Show-me]

Trading the Turkey Week.

Woohoo, what a night overseas!!! NIKK did the old green in the morning, red in the afternoon trick and the EZ/UK are not happy campers this morning.

I'm not scared, I'm not scared, I'm not scared.:worried:

PLAYING THE ODDS

STA sez that in the last 53 years, from 1952 to 2005, only 9 time did we have losing weeks on the DOW.

The week of turkey day, the Tuesday was a negative day 22 times during that period. They don't show me the Monday bias.

The following Monday had 30 down days.

On weeks that have a negative Tuesday and Wednesday if you hold until Friday you have 5 positive verses 1 negative week.