Show-me Account Talk

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FS,

I think James posted some good info. about sending written letters instead of emails and fax's. Making calls too. I will send a typed letter to all of my list of folks this week and I did send a email to my National Craft Director and am waiting for a reply.

TSP Thrift line will hear about it every day this week and next week I will call my elected officials.

Griffin and Fundsurfer are discussing the fact that the IFT may not be the problem, but the fact that TSP is getting the Fair Valuations wrong. Imagine them guessing it wrong and the participants cashing in before it corrects. The I fund IS the fund they are singling out and I would say missing the FV is blowing their bottom line.
 
Back from the "outlet mall", what a waste. No good sales and not many people. I was very disappointed, but had a wonderful meal and coffee with my bride. Sunday..............day of rest. Bring it on!
 
What a freak'n nightmare. At lunch the market was 7 points down on the s&p and by the time I made it back from shopping ................. flush.

Then I see this.

Fed Injects Funds to Ease Lending Concerns

By MICHAEL M. GRYNBAUM

Published: November 26, 2007

Seeking to reassure banks amid the ongoing credit crisis, the Federal Reserve said today that it would provide $8 billion in funds to ease concerns over lending during the holiday season.

It is not unusual for the Fed to offer this type of year-end flexibility to financial institutions. But the injection of funds usually occurs later in the fourth quarter, or entails a smaller volume.
 
Vice Chairman of the FED Don Kohn.

OK, the set up has begun. Vice Chairman of the Fed, Don Kohn, made a speech this morning and the markets like it. Basically he is setting up the "discount rate" cut and leaving the door open to additional rate cuts. Kohn was Greenspans right hand man for many years and carries a TON of weight in the media and street folks. He is a market mover.

Quotes include "The increased turbulence of recent weeks partly reversed some of the improvement in market functioning over the late part of September and in October," and "Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses".

Also, Mr. Kohn also said that while investors and market participants who used "poor judgment" should face the costs of their decisions, but "we should not hold the economy hostage to teach a small segment of the population a lesson."

Sounds like back peddling for another rate cut. How big?


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119625539512906475.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
 
OK, to far to fast? Rick Santelli made a good analogy today. "No matter how much grease you put on the gears it will only turn so fast" or something like that.

He was referring to the speculation the Fed will cut rates again, the grease. The gears are the lenders/economy and they are not going to lower lending standard no matter how much "grease" you put on the gears.

They are not going to throw money at anyone that can't make a 10% - 20% down payment. They got burned and they do not want to get burned again. What happens if the Fed has to raise rates again?:blink:

The data sucks! Durable goods tanked and housing tanked again. OK, lets rally 40 points on speculation and all stick our heads in the sand.:rolleyes:

I wish I would have sold today. Damn noon deadline, I want 3 p.m. eastern time and I want it now.
 
Show-me said:
OK, to far to fast? Rick Santelli made a good analogy today. "No matter how much grease you put on the gears it will only turn so fast" or something like that.

He was referring to the speculation the Fed will cut rates again, the grease. The gears are the lenders/economy and they are not going to lower lending standard no matter how much "grease" you put on the gears.

They are not going to throw money at anyone that can't make a 10% - 20% down payment. They got burned and they do not want to get burned again. What happens if the Fed has to raise rates again?:blink:

The data sucks! Durable goods tanked and housing tanked again. OK, lets rally 40 points on speculation and all stick our heads in the sand.:rolleyes:

I wish I would have sold today. Damn noon deadline, I want 3 p.m. eastern time and I want it now.
Click to expand...

Examining the Libor rates, it constantly ignores Fed injections. Why cut if your the Fed?

They should let the markets play themselves out as Santelli suggests. If you took on bad loans or gave one. Too bad. Why should the government bail these idiots out? The market is now pricing in a 146% chance of a 25 pt basis cut, so in effect, they want and expect 50 basis pts and have it somewhat priced in already after yesterdays actions.

The Fed is being controlled by the markets. They need to reverse this process. I see them giving the market the 25 in Dec. otherwise the market will tank but they should make it known that the Fed remains Neutral and will not be the vehicle to bail out the mess.
 
Some in the market really want 100 points. I do hate the idea of lowering rates to bail out the street, but here is another take.

The lenders control the flow of cash and loans are how many smaller businesses raise cash to operate.

If the lenders do not want to lend due to the risk or lack of cash, the small businesses are doomed.

It is a double edge sword and it is a lot bigger than they let on in the beginning. Now they are admitting that this massive, greedy, cluster **** is impacting the entire economy. Housing continues to drop in price and a few lucky folks are doing some buying at bargain prices compared to 6 months to a 1 year ago.

Economic indicator have been weakened due to the subprime BS and that is it.

Someone else said it first. "I see a bad moon rising." Even Don Kohn said "be nimble". lol
 
More data today, 8:30 ET we will have inflation data. PCE inflation, Chicago PMI, and Construction Spending. Any weakness will help reinforce the possibility of a rate cut and will rally the market.

Breaking news: Rodney King shot! Why is that news?

I'm in and thinking of taking a break over the weekend, but seasonality, which has not been working out, is strong the first trading day of December.

STA sez, first trading day in December DOW has posted 3 straight 100+ point gains 2003-05.

Also, in the back of my mind I fear a surprise rate cut so I think I will ride this out and let my profits run for a bit.

That's it for now. Let'r ride until something pops. Midweek next week start a small bearish spot in the STA.

STA also sez, small cap stocks tend to outperform big caps in January. This has been starting in Mid-December.
 
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=5204


http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=5193


Friends,

If you would, please visit the above link and call or write a few in not all of the persons on the list. They are hearing our voice, but if we slack off they will too. Even if you just leave a voice message after hour to the person that is on the Council. Most cell phone are free after 9 pm so call and leave a message for the person on the council.

A meeting is being planed for Mid-December and they will be getting organized about what they need to ask the FRTIB. We need to help them with that.


I get the impression that the Employee Thrift Advisory Council has been a token council in the past and this may be a real big test for them in opposing the FRTIB. We need to let them know how we feel so that they are in the right frame of mind.

All you have to say on the voice message is " I am strongly opposed to the 2 interfund transfer limits that the FRTIB is trying to implement. I want NO LIMITS!!! I also think a closer look needs to be taken at the I fund Fair Valuation first."


O something like this, "As my representative on the advisory council, I would like you to advocate for no limitation on interfund transfers. Thank you for your assistance."
 
Paladin said:
I'm currently 100% stocks. Given the strong seasonality for Monday-Thursday of next week and the tendency for the first day of the month to see large fund inflows, I'm thinking to pull a bit out each day and let the rest ride. For example, I may be 70% on Monday, 50% on Tuesday, 40% on Wednesday. This will start building the kitty to buy on the next dip whenever it comes.

The thing that concerns me is that the market is now up 4 days in a row including today (with Tue & Wed being one of the biggest 2-day gains ever) and also running into some overhead resistance. You know that the winning streak needs to end real soon.
Click to expand...

Good point, so I am going to play the odds and see. I am concerned that we touched the 200 dma and fell back a little. That will be a resistance point. GL.
 
Hey, look I'm daytrading...........NOT!!! LOL Only thing is it is not in real time like my Scottrade account.
 
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