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Show-me Account Talk
- Thread starter Show-me
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Show-me
Well-known member
The fact that I am alive ten years later is a miracle, life expectancy for my type and stage is ten years. I'm doing great compared to the national average.
Show-me
Well-known member
Some employment info from John Mauldin on the real numbers.
Lies, Damned Lies, and Government Unemployment Numbers
There are some who see a ray of hope in the recent jobless claims reports, which have dropped back to "only" 467,000 in initial unemployment claims, down from 491,000 for the last week, after being over 500,000 for several weeks. Those numbers are seasonally adjusted. That hope disappears if you look at the actual numbers. For the current reporting week ending January 3, 2009, the advance number of initial claims came in at 726,420. Last week's advance number was 717,000. We have been above 600,000 new initial claims every week since the third week of November. Continuing claims jumped massively, by 744,000 to 5,316,124.
No conspiracy here. This is what happens when you try to smooth a volatile trend by using seasonal adjustments. If you use past performance as the tool by which you smooth the trend, when the trend changes, the seasonally adjusted numbers will be either too large or too small. Thus, the data understated the growth of jobs in 2003 because recent past performance had been bad, and it is now understating the number of unemployment claims and actual unemployment.
In December, the number of unemployed persons increased by a seasonally adjusted 632,000 to 11.1 million and the unemployment rate rose to 7.2%. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has grown by 3.6 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 2.3% and is now at 7.2%.
I happened to be watching CNBC at the time of the release of the data, and several commentators remarked how much better the number was than they thought it would be. I wish they were right, but again, the actual numbers showed a loss of 954,000 jobs, over 50% more than the headline number reported in the press release. And that assumes that new businesses created 72,000 jobs from the birth/death model that I so frequently write about. It is possible that almost 1 million jobs were lost in December. I doubt the market would have liked that number.
I should note that the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not hide that number. You can find it if you dig for it. But most analysts seem to prefer just to take the press release and go with it. And most of the time that is fine. But in times like this, when trends are changing, you miss the bigger picture and get misleading data.
Unemployment could rise to 9-10% or more this year and on into 2010. That means we could easily see another 3 million lost jobs over the next year. That is going to put a lot of negative pressure on consumer spending. It also means that wages are not likely to rise, and we have already hard evidence of wages falling in many industries as companies try to find ways to remain solvent.
And that 9% will be the headline number. If you add people who have part-time jobs but would like a full-time job, and what are called marginally attached workers, the current rate is already 13.5%.
Average hours worked dropped to the lowest level since they began collecting data in 1964, as did hourly income. Given the increasing difficulty for consumers to borrow money and with income dropping, plus increased savings on the part of consumers, it is difficult to see how pricing power is going to come back any time soon.
This problem is multiplied throughout the developed world. The developing world, which sells products and goods to the US and European consumers, is starting to feel the pinch. Chinese and other Asian exports are dropping (more on that in future letters, but the data is ugly).
Overcapacity, rising unemployment, imploding leverage, lack of borrowing and/or lending, a serious retreat by consumers, and increased savings are all the conditions needed to bring about deflation. Left unchecked, we could soon see something like what Japan has experienced, and even potentially worse, as they started with a savings rate of 13%.
But deflation is not going to be left unchecked. It will be fought by central banks everywhere with low rates and the printing press, as well as government spending. And so, let's turn our attention to that process.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-12285.htm
Lies, Damned Lies, and Government Unemployment Numbers
There are some who see a ray of hope in the recent jobless claims reports, which have dropped back to "only" 467,000 in initial unemployment claims, down from 491,000 for the last week, after being over 500,000 for several weeks. Those numbers are seasonally adjusted. That hope disappears if you look at the actual numbers. For the current reporting week ending January 3, 2009, the advance number of initial claims came in at 726,420. Last week's advance number was 717,000. We have been above 600,000 new initial claims every week since the third week of November. Continuing claims jumped massively, by 744,000 to 5,316,124.
No conspiracy here. This is what happens when you try to smooth a volatile trend by using seasonal adjustments. If you use past performance as the tool by which you smooth the trend, when the trend changes, the seasonally adjusted numbers will be either too large or too small. Thus, the data understated the growth of jobs in 2003 because recent past performance had been bad, and it is now understating the number of unemployment claims and actual unemployment.
In December, the number of unemployed persons increased by a seasonally adjusted 632,000 to 11.1 million and the unemployment rate rose to 7.2%. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has grown by 3.6 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 2.3% and is now at 7.2%.
I happened to be watching CNBC at the time of the release of the data, and several commentators remarked how much better the number was than they thought it would be. I wish they were right, but again, the actual numbers showed a loss of 954,000 jobs, over 50% more than the headline number reported in the press release. And that assumes that new businesses created 72,000 jobs from the birth/death model that I so frequently write about. It is possible that almost 1 million jobs were lost in December. I doubt the market would have liked that number.
I should note that the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not hide that number. You can find it if you dig for it. But most analysts seem to prefer just to take the press release and go with it. And most of the time that is fine. But in times like this, when trends are changing, you miss the bigger picture and get misleading data.
Unemployment could rise to 9-10% or more this year and on into 2010. That means we could easily see another 3 million lost jobs over the next year. That is going to put a lot of negative pressure on consumer spending. It also means that wages are not likely to rise, and we have already hard evidence of wages falling in many industries as companies try to find ways to remain solvent.
And that 9% will be the headline number. If you add people who have part-time jobs but would like a full-time job, and what are called marginally attached workers, the current rate is already 13.5%.
Average hours worked dropped to the lowest level since they began collecting data in 1964, as did hourly income. Given the increasing difficulty for consumers to borrow money and with income dropping, plus increased savings on the part of consumers, it is difficult to see how pricing power is going to come back any time soon.
This problem is multiplied throughout the developed world. The developing world, which sells products and goods to the US and European consumers, is starting to feel the pinch. Chinese and other Asian exports are dropping (more on that in future letters, but the data is ugly).
Overcapacity, rising unemployment, imploding leverage, lack of borrowing and/or lending, a serious retreat by consumers, and increased savings are all the conditions needed to bring about deflation. Left unchecked, we could soon see something like what Japan has experienced, and even potentially worse, as they started with a savings rate of 13%.
But deflation is not going to be left unchecked. It will be fought by central banks everywhere with low rates and the printing press, as well as government spending. And so, let's turn our attention to that process.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-12285.htm
ezmoney
Member
The jobless rate is always higher than the government reports, for one it doesn't count the ones who have given up on going to the unemployment office to file a claim. These people have filed and filed and still have no job so they just give up and don't bother to file any more claims as they feel it is useless; therefore there is no more statistical data for these individuals.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Personally I think you can wait for a new low in oil...but it may be a little while.
Show-me
Well-known member
This is not working, why throw good money after bad? How about giving those folks free TV converters instead of crooked corporations. We are out of money for TV converters but we have tons for the fat cats on Wall Street. Brilliant!
AP
Quick tapping of unspent $350 billion in works
Sunday January 11, 9:29 pm ET
By Andrew Taylor and Philip Elliott, Associated Press Writer Senate could vote this week on letting Obama tap unspent $350 billion from financial bailout
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Senate Democrats prepared Sunday to answer a request for the remaining $350 billion in financial industry bailout funds as the Bush administration and President-elect Obama undertook a tag-team effort to obtain the money from reluctant lawmakers.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090111/obama_economy.html
AP
Quick tapping of unspent $350 billion in works
Sunday January 11, 9:29 pm ET
By Andrew Taylor and Philip Elliott, Associated Press Writer Senate could vote this week on letting Obama tap unspent $350 billion from financial bailout
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Senate Democrats prepared Sunday to answer a request for the remaining $350 billion in financial industry bailout funds as the Bush administration and President-elect Obama undertook a tag-team effort to obtain the money from reluctant lawmakers.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090111/obama_economy.html
Corepuncher
Well-known member
This is not working, why throw good money after bad? How about giving those folks free TV converters instead of crooked corporations. We are out of money for TV converters but we have tons for the fat cats on Wall Street. Brilliant!
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Silverbird
Well-known member
Yes, Labor Department's statistical smoothing to take out seasonality don't work well with radical moves in unemployment. However, tracking monthly changes and making them the news is even less useful, and that's what the news insists on doing. It's best tracked quarterly. However, no one's going to put up with that, so Labor tries to smooth it out.
If you want to only look for two seconds, to avoid over-analysis of changes that are simply due to some months being more active than others, there's smoothing. Also, if there are late reporters or revised reports, they are lost in next month's numbers preliminary monthly report. Preliminary data seldom stands. The preliminary numbers, being the latest are what's reported, but they definately are not the greatest!
The underlying data and what it means is what's important, and working with numbers from a few months back is best. But few look at it, or care, and you can't do it in a 5 second soundbite. And those darn preliminary numbers will gets lots of air time on speculation and commentary based on them, all too often with no lookback.
If you want to only look for two seconds, to avoid over-analysis of changes that are simply due to some months being more active than others, there's smoothing. Also, if there are late reporters or revised reports, they are lost in next month's numbers preliminary monthly report. Preliminary data seldom stands. The preliminary numbers, being the latest are what's reported, but they definately are not the greatest!
The underlying data and what it means is what's important, and working with numbers from a few months back is best. But few look at it, or care, and you can't do it in a 5 second soundbite. And those darn preliminary numbers will gets lots of air time on speculation and commentary based on them, all too often with no lookback.
Show-me
Well-known member
Woke up to good old single digit temps. here in Missouri, hope it's warmer where you are. This is my signal to buy some oil stocks. Cold, temps, building inventories, hoarding inventory, T. Boone Pickens on CNBC, and many market comments.
Read Tom's comments, good stuff in there.
Futures are looking bleak, but that can change. Ben talks in London, never good when he opens his mouth. Alcoa earnings very bad, Sony bad. Watch Oscar, econ. data upcoming bad. TARP phase two in the works, bad.
More layoffs, defaults on loans, defaults on credit cards, retail bankruptcies have not started yet. Plant yur feet and hold on.
Read Tom's comments, good stuff in there.
Futures are looking bleak, but that can change. Ben talks in London, never good when he opens his mouth. Alcoa earnings very bad, Sony bad. Watch Oscar, econ. data upcoming bad. TARP phase two in the works, bad.
More layoffs, defaults on loans, defaults on credit cards, retail bankruptcies have not started yet. Plant yur feet and hold on.
Show-me
Well-known member
Looking like it is getting closer to the time for me to get a new TV, cheap!
TOKYO (AP) -- Sony's shares plunged Tuesday on reports that the iconic Japanese electronics maker is sinking into its first yearly operating loss in 14 years as sales fizzle for digital cameras, flat-panel TVs and other gadgets.
Sony Executive Deputy President and CEO Katsumi Ihara, center, Executive Vice President Nobu Kurita, left, and General Manager Takao Yoshikawa pose for the media at a press briefing of its new Bravia TV series in Tokyo in this photo taken on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2008. Sony will post a 100 billion yen ($1.1 billion) operating loss this fiscal year through March, its first since 1995, media reports said Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2009. (AP Photo/Shizuo Kambayashi.
The media reports, coming just weeks after Toyota forecast its first annual operating loss in 70 years, highlight the pain even Japan's premier brands are suffering amid the global slowdown.
The nation's top business daily The Nikkei reported Tuesday that Sony was expected to rack up a 100 billion yen ($1.1 billion) operating loss this fiscal year ending March, its first since 1995.
Behind the dismal outlook are faltering sales of liquid crystal display TVs and other goods, especially in the key U.S. and European markets, The Nikkei said, adding that operating losses could balloon to as much as 200 billion yen ($2.2 billion).
Tokyo-based Sony Corp. declined comment.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sony-shock-again-Slump-may-apf-14044412.html
TOKYO (AP) -- Sony's shares plunged Tuesday on reports that the iconic Japanese electronics maker is sinking into its first yearly operating loss in 14 years as sales fizzle for digital cameras, flat-panel TVs and other gadgets.
Sony Executive Deputy President and CEO Katsumi Ihara, center, Executive Vice President Nobu Kurita, left, and General Manager Takao Yoshikawa pose for the media at a press briefing of its new Bravia TV series in Tokyo in this photo taken on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2008. Sony will post a 100 billion yen ($1.1 billion) operating loss this fiscal year through March, its first since 1995, media reports said Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2009. (AP Photo/Shizuo Kambayashi.
The media reports, coming just weeks after Toyota forecast its first annual operating loss in 70 years, highlight the pain even Japan's premier brands are suffering amid the global slowdown.
The nation's top business daily The Nikkei reported Tuesday that Sony was expected to rack up a 100 billion yen ($1.1 billion) operating loss this fiscal year ending March, its first since 1995.
Behind the dismal outlook are faltering sales of liquid crystal display TVs and other goods, especially in the key U.S. and European markets, The Nikkei said, adding that operating losses could balloon to as much as 200 billion yen ($2.2 billion).
Tokyo-based Sony Corp. declined comment.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sony-shock-again-Slump-may-apf-14044412.html
CountryBoy
Well-known member
Show-me
Well-known member
poolman
Top Return 2008
350zCommTech
Well-known member
I want to take my profits in SRS but I have a feeling the gates of hell is about to open after the inauguration.
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