Show-me Account Talk

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Short rally to the 50 dma, I don't buy it and the resistance is too great. So what the gov. created some more money out of thin air and lent it to GMAC to lend out to who ever still has a job and is stupid enough to buy something they can afford and probably don't need. LOL

More gov. bail outs and band aids and in the mean time jobs are being lost and those are the consumers. Sell any rally and watch out for the end of the year window dressing.
 
Selling DXO, profit to great to pass up.

My year end review will be coming this weekend and it is going to be ugly.

Lesson learned, discipline, stops, trading paralysis.
 
Year in review time. Points to remember hogs get slaughtered and I did get that.

TSP, I did make my goal to beat the C fund and a secondary of beating the best performing fund. I beat the C fund by 6.59% and putting that way sounds great. If I put it like this, I'm down -30.40% for the year. That don't sound as good.

My Roth and Trad. IRA............................ In Aug. I was up 60% and on cloud nine, I played SLV and got the crap kicked out of me because of no stop. I then played UYG for a bounce and that is when the whole thing unraveled and I really got the crap kicked out of me. I ended up down -54% and -44% respectively.

Major lesson is STOPS, STOPS, STOPS, and don't fall in love with any pick. TSP paralysis got me in my TSP account, fear of being out on a rally because I used up my trades.

My lack of trading discipline got me too. If I would have stuck to my outlook at the beginning of 2008 I would have just sit in the F fund all year and done real well.

My outlook for this year is lengthy and I do not have time for it all right now. Basically we don't recover until the consumer recovers and that don't happen until there are good jobs created, the real estate mess stabilizes, and the financials recover. The CDS mess is a $55 plus trillion dollar mess that kill AIG and is still the $55 trillion gorilla in the room. Retail will have to restructure if they show a bad season, that means more layoffs and more defaults. More ARM's resetting is bad also.

The trillions in National Debt created by the Fed and Treasury will catch up with us. Another ponzi scheme.

I like energy and commodities on pull backs. SU is my favorite because it is oil and not a US company. When we recover it will take energy and commodities. When the dollar bubble pops you will want the same things or be out of US dollars.

I could see us rally higher the next few days, but the data will start to wear on that rally. The reduction of unemployment claims could be due to seasonality so I don't hold a lot of faith in them. I want to see the retail spending numbers and the retail and bank bankruptcies. Who is going t buy cars from GM? They got so much bad press I would not touch and new car from them.

That is it for now. BIG, HUGE, CONGRATULATIONS TO THE FOLKS THAT FINISHED POSITIVE THIS YEAR OR BEAT THE MARKET MY DOUBLE DIGITS! WELL DONE!:D:D:D
 
Exited my Oil trade today with a gain of 25%. I've got a lot of ground to make up in 2009 and this is a good start.
 
US Banks May Have to Raise Capital again: Whitney

U.S. banks will have to raise fresh capital in 2009, and a sharp increase in credit-rating downgrades on mortgage-related securities will lead to further stresses on the companies' capital, according to prominent banking analyst Meredith Whitney.

RELATED LINKS

"From July 2007 to date, over $5 trillion worth of securities have been downgraded, but our concern here is that the pace of downgrades has only accelerated through 2008," the Oppenheimer analyst wrote in a research note dated Jan. 6.

"Capital ratios will be meaningfully lower in the fourth quarter (of 2008) versus post TARP pro forma levels," she said.

Since the summer of 2007, Wall Street has been hammered by a sharp pullback in debt markets, which began with mortgage woes and escalated into a credit crisis, slowing economic activity around the world.

The U.S. Treasury's $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) was established in October 2008 primarily as a means to recapitalize banks and take bad assets off their books to help support creaking credit markets.
Apart from the more than $40 billion in fourth-quarter write-downs and loss provisions the analyst expects from the group of bank stocks under her coverage, Whitney also anticipates "capital strains to become apparent from ratings change pressures."


http://www.cnbc.com/id/28534319
 
US Could Lose 1 Million Jobs this Month: ING

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28536380

New Year optimism is likely to be shaken by shocking numbers in the monthly employment report, with a loss of one million jobs coming "sooner than you might think," ING Bank analyst Rob Carnell wrote in a research note.

"At the risk of sounding like 'Dr. Evil', there is a very real possibility of seeing monthly payrolls falling by a million in the next few months," Carnell wrote.

Payroll losses could reach seven figures as soon as January or February, he added.


Just my own opinion, but I've believe we're already at 10% unemployment as of last month and the Feds were just cooking the books and I don't see that changing in the future. I just don't trust our government anymore to tell us the truth.

Just say no to Bailouts. They will kill us in about 3 to 4 years.

CB
 
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Bailing out is prolonging the inevitable. History has taught us this, anytime the gov. help they are not helping the free market.

I'm still short in my one account and cash in two others. This rally was technically needed so that we can continue down. This is a suck rally and Obama is the sucker stuck with the mess.

Do we really think we will have only one year of negative returns with a crisis of this magnitude............................come on.
 
Show-me said:
Bailing out is prolonging the inevitable. History has taught us this, anytime the gov. help they are not helping the free market.

I'm still short in my one account and cash in two others. This rally was technically needed so that we can continue down. This is a suck rally and Obama is the sucker stuck with the mess.

Do we really think we will have only one year of negative returns with a crisis of this magnitude............................come on.
Click to expand...

For some reason, CNBC videos get blocked here. :( I'm 92% cash (G Fund) and 8% Stocks, and buying (2 ROTHs). Yeah, it's a sucker rally or what I call a Gov't bailout Rally. When the Gov't gets outta the way, we can finally get to the end of all of this and yeah it will be painful, but they are just prolonging the inevitable and I believe it'll be more painful, the more the Gov't prints money.

CB
 
CountryBoy said:
US Could Lose 1 Million Jobs this Month: ING

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28536380

New Year optimism is likely to be shaken by shocking numbers in the monthly employment report, with a loss of one million jobs coming "sooner than you might think," ING Bank analyst Rob Carnell wrote in a research note.

"At the risk of sounding like 'Dr. Evil', there is a very real possibility of seeing monthly payrolls falling by a million in the next few months," Carnell wrote.

Payroll losses could reach seven figures as soon as January or February, he added.


Just my own opinion, but I've believe we're already at 10% unemployment as of last month and the Feds were just cooking the books and I don't see that changing in the future. I just don't trust our government anymore to tell us the truth.

Just say no to Bailouts. They will kill us in about 3 to 4 years.

CB
Click to expand...

I'm with you 100% CB. I forecast Unemployment will hit 11% this year, the GDP will continue to grow and the feds believe they can just print money and it will fix the problem. Printing money = More Debt
 
Diesel said:
I'm with you 100% CB. I forecast Unemployment will hit 11% this year, the GDP will continue to grow and the feds believe they can just print money and it will fix the problem. Printing money = More Debt
Click to expand...

CNBC's Steve Liesman, who I love watching get smacked down by Santelli, says the real unemployment rate is really 12.5% and I think we will get much worse. The government data is publish according to Liesman, you just have to really dig for it. The real problem is the reporting criteria has changed over the years to omit certain people.
 
Planned Dec. Job Cuts Up 275% From '07: Report


Planned layoffs at U.S. firms eased in December from the previous month's seven-year high but they were up an astounding 275 percent annually as the year-old recession cut a huge swathe of destruction through job market.

The economic slump, which is likely to be the longest since the Great Depression of the 1930s, also produced the worst year of layoffs since 2003, outplacement company Challenger, Gray & Christmas said Wednesday in its monthly report on U.S. job cuts.

The report said heavy job-cutting could continue through at least the first half of 2009, and the outlook afterward hinges on President-elect Barack Obama's plans to stimulate the economy through increased government spending.

"The economy could begin to mount a comeback in the second half of the year, if the new administration can achieve quick passage of its proposed economic and job-growth stimulus package," said John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

"The plan to rebuild the nation's crumbling infrastructure will benefit not only laborers on the front lines, but it will push up through the economy, creating jobs for manufacturing workers, engineers, architects, technology specialists, etc."

Job cuts announced in December totaled 166,348, down 8.4 percent from November's 181,671, Challenger, Gray & Christmas said. Despite the monthly decline, layoffs were up from just 44,416 in the year-ago period.
Overall, employers announced 1,223,993 job cuts in 2008, the largest annual total since 2003, when there were 1,236,426 job cuts.

More............

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28537408
 
Pink slips pile higher amid deepening recession

Pink slip pile higher as companies slash costs to cope with recession


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Pink slips are piling higher as companies scramble to cut costs even deeper to survive the country's economic and financial storms.

A sign instructs job seekers at the California Employment Development Department in Sunnyvale, Calif., Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2009. The country lost nearly 2 million jobs through November and more bad news is expected this week when the government releases data on weekly jobless claims and December unemployment. No matter how bad those numbers are, and economists expect at least another 500,000 jobs were lost last month, the pain is stretching into 2009. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

Just days into the new year, managed care provider Cigna Corp., aluminum producer Alcoa Inc., data-storage company EMC Corp. and computer products maker Logitech International were among those announcing layoffs to cope with a recession that has just entered its second year. The flurry of job cuts suggest the employment picture will remain grim this year.

A barometer on layoffs is expected to show Thursday that the number of newly laid off people signing up for state unemployment insurance last week rose to 540,000, up from 492,000 in the previous week, according to economists' projections.

The number of people continuing to draw jobless benefits is projected to stay near 4.5 million, demonstrating the troubles the unemployed are having in finding new jobs.

Electronic unemployment filing systems have crashed in at least three states in recent days due to the crush of newly jobless Americans seeking benefits.

"Businesses were panicked at the end of the year and those that had been holding off on layoffs are now capitulating," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

With jobs disappearing, shoppers held tight to their wallets and pocketbooks last month.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Pink-slips-pile-higher-amid-apf-14000939.html
 
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The good new for the economy just keeps piling up. More layoffs, cutback, bankruptcies, down sizing, stimulus, decreased tax revenue from fuel, to city, to county, to state, to federal. Entitlement programs will get slashed as well as any non-essential government posts. Big labor is scared that the Obama Admin. will not pay up with in the first 100 days. Pres. Elect. is posturing for "tough choices" which means he will cut programs that his voter wanted, problem is the piggy bank is dry.
 
Still any rally would not surprise me and a run to the 200 dma is historically possible from a technical perspective. The 200 dma is a strong average and can not be ignored.
 
Show-me said:
Still any rally would not surprise me and a run to the 200 dma is historically possible from a technical perspective. The 200 dma is a strong average and can not be ignored.
Click to expand...

Happy New Year Show-me, After last year I don't think anything would surprise any of us... However, not enough to make me take even a short term risk at the moment -- went 100% G COB 6th, and staying that way for now....
 
BamaAF,
Happy New Year to you too and yes the risk is way to high to play the upside. On a positive note, bullish crossover of the 20 and 50 dma and the 50 dma is flattening out a bit. We are overbought and that kind of trumps the bullishness.
 
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