Show-me Account Talk

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Peter Schiff

January 16, 2009
Credit Where Credit is Due
by Peter Schiff

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This week, in a speech before the London School of Economics, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke offered a perverse economic theory in his quest to gather support for never-ending Wall Street bailouts; "This disparate treatment, unappealing as it is, appears unavoidable. Our economic system is critically dependent on the free flow of credit, and the consequences for the broader economy of financial instability are thus powerful and quickly felt." In other words, credit is the lifeblood of our economy, and the continued operation of credit providers is an issue of national security.
In truth, not all economies run on credit. But over the last decade, the United States became a bubble economy that needed unlimited credit to keep from collapsing. In a legitimate economy, it is not credit that fuels spending and investment, but simply income and savings. It's too bad our Fed chairman does not understand the difference.
That American families now routinely rely on credit to make every-day purchases is a habit that needs to be broken and not encouraged. What we need in America is more restraint and less indulgence. For example, Americans in the current economy should not go into debt to buy new cars. Given the level of debt that weighs down the typical family, Americans should defer such purchases until they have paid down existing debt, or replenished their savings to the point where they can afford to pay cash. Until that time, Americans should continue driving their old cars. In the meantime, the untapped savings could be made available to local businesses that would use it to finance badly needed capital investments.

more..............

http://www.safehaven.com/article-12349.htm
 
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IYF&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p91875221628

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UYG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26694867262

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAS&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99721405219

Above is all financial long ETF's, 1X, 2X, and 3X return. I have no faith in them long term, but a bounce is over due.

IYF showed three days of selling with volume increasing every day. The last two day had nice tails showing that buyer stepped in to get it on the cheap.

I am only considering it as a day trade with a very tight stop. I don't like going long with the moving average in a declining and a bearish crossover of the 20 and 50 dma.

3X ETF's are awsome, over a 30% intraday swing and if you can glean just 10% of that swing................sweet!
 
Re: Peter Schiff

January 16, 2009
Credit Where Credit is Due
by Peter Schiff

In truth, not all economies run on credit. In a legitimate economy, it is not credit that fuels spending and investment, but simply income and savings.

That American families now routinely rely on credit to make every-day purchases is a habit that needs to be broken and not encouraged. What we need in America is more restraint and less indulgence. Americans should defer such purchases until they have replenished their savings to the point where they can afford to pay cash. Until that time, Americans should continue driving their old cars. In the meantime, the untapped savings could be made available to local businesses that would use it to finance badly needed capital investments.

more..............

http://www.safehaven.com/article-12349.htm

Gee golly! Schiff's been reading my playbook. 13-year old PU, roof needs replacing w/in 2 years-best estimate. Depleted my savings the past 2 years to finish paying off the house, still rebuilding. Hard to rebuild for 2 big ticket items and store $ for stock market future purchases same time. If I go for a big score to help me with big ticket upcoming essentials, and the big score doesn't come, will take me that much longer to save for the essentials.

Or I could save for one of those essentials, draw on existing Home Eq. line of credit for the other, and still be able to store up $ for market. The second line of thinking assumes my fed job will last until I've paid off the HELOC, ready to retire and inflation won't go nuts in the meantime. Hmm.

Wonder how many other people are thinking the same way?
 
Re: Peter Schiff

Gee golly! Schiff's been reading my playbook. 13-year old PU, roof needs replacing w/in 2 years-best estimate. Depleted my savings the past 2 years to finish paying off the house, still rebuilding. Hard to rebuild for 2 big ticket items and store $ for stock market future purchases same time. If I go for a big score to help me with big ticket upcoming essentials, and the big score doesn't come, will take me that much longer to save for the essentials.

Or I could save for one of those essentials, draw on existing Home Eq. line of credit for the other, and still be able to store up $ for market. The second line of thinking assumes my fed job will last until I've paid off the HELOC, ready to retire and inflation won't go nuts in the meantime. Hmm.

Wonder how many other people are thinking the same way?

The only additional credit I am going to get is from myself. TSP loan from yourself. Low payments and low interest and you keep the interest. :D
 
Well, BAC got more money. UNFREAK'N BELIEVABLE! Get the lube out! They asked for more money than they thought they would need and now they are burning through it like drunk'n sailors. More money down the well and the American people don't get it. Keep on eating your corn chips and watching Dancing with the Stars while the government give any future for generations to the corporations that caused the problem in the first place. BRILLIANT! No accountability. You might see a very bitter, sarcastic side of me come our as the medication is starting to loose its potency.

I'm not buying anything long term except my DCA contributions in TSP as the sucker rallies will continue and it is looking like the government will create a trading range and artificial support every time the market starts going down.

Speaking of money, how can you justify spending $150 billion dollars for an inauguration in these financial times and he said the Big 3 CEO's were tone deaf. I just can't see how you can justify this kind of expenditures for this shindig. That's almost 20% of the $850 billion dollar stimulous package. Of course, this maybe some of the millions of jobs that will be created.

Again 2 sets of rules and of course there will be extenuating circumstance and excuses folks can come with, because he is the Messiah.:rolleyes:

CB
 
Re: Peter Schiff

The only additional credit I am going to get is from myself. TSP loan from yourself. Low payments and low interest and you keep the interest. :D

Could be you have the better mousetrap, JB45. Guess I'll have to look harder at that option. I got pretty well indoctrinated previously into the concept of not paying taxes 2x on the same $, plus the time loss factor from not having those $ in the market full time, but I may come around. Not time-critical to make that decision just yet, I don't think, even from interest-rate perspective-likely got another year or 2, hope not offbase on that one.
 
Speaking of money, how can you justify spending $150 billion dollars for an inauguration in these financial times and he said the Big 3 CEO's were tone deaf. I just can't see how you can justify this kind of expenditures for this shindig. That's almost 20% of the $850 billion dollar stimulous package. Of course, this maybe some of the millions of jobs that will be created.

Again 2 sets of rules and of course there will be extenuating circumstance and excuses folks can come with, because he is the Messiah.:rolleyes:

CB

Could Obama really be just another politician/Wall St. whore?:D

How will African Americans feel about the Messiah 6 months from now?
 
Speaking of money, how can you justify spending $150 billion dollars for an inauguration in these financial times and he said the Big 3 CEO's were tone deaf. I just can't see how you can justify this kind of expenditures for this shindig. That's almost 20% of the $850 billion dollar stimulous package. Of course, this maybe some of the millions of jobs that will be created.

Again 2 sets of rules and of course there will be extenuating circumstance and excuses folks can come with, because he is the Messiah.:rolleyes:

CB

I made a mistake, :o it was only $150 million, just about 4x's more expensive than the next most expensive inauguration, so I guess he's just a wall street tone deaf whore and there probably won't be any permanent jobs resulting from the expenditure.

It must be nice to have rich friends, ie Soros, and we know he's a damn socialist. This sure doesn't look right from my POV, but then we all know where we're headed and I guess it's ok depending on who you are. ;)

And we all know he won't be beholding from these people. Same old politics, just the jack asses and not the elepants this time. The next few years sure will be interesting.:worried:

Sorry again for the mistake. Rant over, sometimes you just have to get things outta your system, kinda like ralphing up bad food. Ya feel better, but the nasty aftertaste still lingers.

CB
 
I made a mistake, :o it was only $150 million, just about 4x's more expensive than the next most expensive inauguration, so I guess he's just a wall street tone deaf whore and there probably won't be any permanent jobs resulting from the expenditure.

It must be nice to have rich friends, ie Soros, and we know he's a damn socialist. This sure doesn't look right from my POV, but then we all know where we're headed and I guess it's ok depending on who you are. ;)

And we all know he won't be beholding from these people. Same old politics, just the jack asses and not the elepants this time. The next few years sure will be interesting.:worried:

Sorry again for the mistake. Rant over, sometimes you just have to get things outta your system, kinda like ralphing up bad food. Ya feel better, but the nasty aftertaste still lingers.

CB
CB-Did all Feds receive this info? Or just DC and surrounding areas?
I don't see how anyone can spend that much $ on this. The Fed employees in DC area have been receiving emails from our ethics dept telling us what we can and cannot except, ie. if we plan to attend....we have to buy our own tickets....

Presidential Inauguration Guidance


Are you planning on attending inauguration events? If so, and you are a Federal employee, there are a few things you may need to know.

You do not need ethics clearance if you meet the following conditions:
  • <LI class=MsoNormal>You purchase a ticket to any of the inaugural balls using your own funds. <LI class=MsoNormal>You plan on attending the inauguration ceremony or parade utilizing spaces open to the general public. <LI class=MsoNormal>You were one of the lucky few who were given swearing-in ceremony tickets by your U.S. Representative, U.S. Senator, or other elected official. <LI class=MsoNormal>You plan on standing on the Mall to watch the ceremonies. <LI class=MsoNormal>You plan on standing in any of the public viewing spaces. <LI class=MsoNormal>You purchased a ticket to any of the viewing stands using your own money. <LI class=MsoNormal>You volunteer for the inauguration committee or other groups.
  • You let someone stay at your house (without charging them) so they may attend the inauguration.
You may need ethics clearance if you meet the following conditions:
  • <LI class=MsoNormal>A business or other organizations purchased a ticket for you or gives you a ticket to any of the inaugural balls. You need to ensure that the business is not a prohibited source or that the cost exceeds allowable dollar limits for gifts. <LI class=MsoNormal>A business or other organization purchased tickets for you, gives you a ticket to a viewing stand, or offers you free hotel rooms or limo service You need to ensure that the business is not a prohibited source or that the cost exceeds allowable dollar limits for gifts. <LI class=MsoNormal>You are invited to attend an inaugural event that provides free food or at which you are given a gift/souvenir of the event. If the value of the food or gift exceeds allowable limits, you will need to obtain ethics approval. <LI class=MsoNormal>You rent/lease your house/apartment/condo to an individual and/or corporation for inauguration events. You need to be careful that the renters are not prohibited sources. Contact the NIAID Ethics Office.
  • You were given tickets to any of the private viewing stands. You need to ensure that the tickets are not from a prohibited source or that the cost exceeds allowable dollar limits for gifts.
Thanks,
 
Re: Peter Schiff

Could be you have the better mousetrap, JB45. Guess I'll have to look harder at that option. I got pretty well indoctrinated previously into the concept of not paying taxes 2x on the same $, plus the time loss factor from not having those $ in the market full time, but I may come around. Not time-critical to make that decision just yet, I don't think, even from interest-rate perspective-likely got another year or 2, hope not offbase on that one.

Alevin, I would use CPs calculator to justify doing the loan (see below). If you have a high interest rate card then it might be worth it. The other thing you have to determine is how much do you think your account will really make this year. If you think you will break even or lose money then don't throw good money after bad, get rid of your debt. JMHO and my current path. I also didn't understand the tax 2X comment. Could you elaborate?
 
Re: Peter Schiff

Alevin, I would use CPs calculator to justify doing the loan (see below). If you have a high interest rate card then it might be worth it. The other thing you have to determine is how much do you think your account will really make this year. If you think you will break even or lose money then don't throw good money after bad, get rid of your debt. JMHO and my current path. I also didn't understand the tax 2X comment. Could you elaborate?
CP's calculator is really cool! In this significant bear market there are, of course, other possible considerations that must be figured in. JB45 brings up one of them, which is that in times like these it's difficult to make a significant positive return on your TSP unless you're really good or really lucky. So if your choice is (1) borrowing from yourself and paying yourself a higher interest rate than you could make in G Fund or (2) borrowing from someone else and paying them the interest, in this market it may make sense to take the TSP loan for something as important as a roof.

Several years ago I had to have a loan for some unexpected medical bills. I gave myself a short-term loan from my TSP account and counted that money as being invested in G Fund when I was making my fund investment decisions. It's not the ideal situation, but it beats paying a bank 8% or paying a credit card 15%. JMHO.

Lady
 
Check this out, got it from the Clark Howard Show. Totally free credit SCORE from Expedian. I just checked it out and it worked great.
https://www.quizzle.com/account-creation/get-started.html
I might try this one out, just for curiosities sake. I'm usually guy-shy about most other "free-no strings" offers.

quizzle.com
"I don't know what people are complaining about. I just went to quizzle and found my score: it's 768. I didn't have to buy anything, but they did ask me to fill out a form (name, address, no cc info requested)"

http://clarkhoward.com/liveweb/shownotes/2008/06/06/13638/

"Overall, if you are looking to get both your credit report and credit score for free Quizzle is a place to check out. Unlike some of the other new sites out there they are not making their money off Advertising, but rather trying to upsell you a loan so you may get some junk mail or phone calls as a result of it (yet to be seen)."

http://www.thefinancejourney.com/personal-finance/a-look-at-quizzle-a-free-credit-report-score-site/
 
Re: Peter Schiff

Alevin, I would use CPs calculator to justify doing the loan (see below). If you have a high interest rate card then it might be worth it. The other thing you have to determine is how much do you think your account will really make this year. If you think you will break even or lose money then don't throw good money after bad, get rid of your debt. I also didn't understand the tax 2X comment. Could you elaborate?

http://http://community.federalsoup.com/4/OpenTopic?a=tpc&s=4944011921&f=2514011031&m=4141073541

.....you lose the earnings in the money diverted to your loan. Third, you re-pay the money at a premium because you re-pay with after tax dollars. For every $1.00 you re-pay the loan with, you have to earn $1.25.


http://community.federalsoup.com/4/OpenTopic?a=tpc&s=4944011921&f=2514011031&m=4511076751

If you take out a home equity loan with the ability to deduct the interest paid, your rate would come out lower. Also you would be paying back TSP at 4.5% with after tax dollars and losing any gains on the amount owed. I would go with home equity loan.

A loan with the TSP, well... first off, you are contributing to your TSP with BEFORE tax dollars. You will pay your loan back with AFTER TAX DOLLARS. Lets assume after a few yrs. the loan is paid back. When you retire you then deside to take that money out (assume part of it was the orig. loan)...you will pay taxes again on what you withdraw. So, really you are paying taxes twice in my opinion.


JB, my problem isn't paying down existing debt, No. My problem is contemplating taking on new debt to help finance multiple big ticket items (Roths 2008-2011 including catchup contribs, full tearoff and new roof, replacement newer used vehicle).

I have no current debt thanks to paying off the house last spring, but savings are coming too slow to finance all of the above objectives in that short a timeframe (2009-2011) from current savings and paychecks. I can finance about 1/3 to 1/2 of the above from current savings and foreseeable income between now and 2011, but funding all of the above is essential in that timeframe. Which is pushing me to think about going INTO debt again for the leverage for a few years.

TSP loan at 3%, my HELOC is at prime (3.25 right now) and can be converted no-fee to fixed interest, with tax writeoffs on the interest.

I HATE the idea of going back into debt, but it may make sense-assuming the country doesn't go belly up, or downsize my job for that matter (bankrupt country-hello? that's another consideration yet). Whether TSP or HELOC loan makes more sense, I'm still working on mentally and emotionally as much as anything. I will take a look at CPs calcs, haven't looked hard enough yet at it to know whether double-jeopardy tax consequences are figured in or not. Are they, CP?
 
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