Even though we still have 10 weeks left this year, I'm forced to conclude that I've been horribly horrible at managing my TSP account. All the pretty charts and technical indicators don't mean a thing if you can't capitalize on price and I have to admit to myself I've made some poor decisions.
Therfore I've decided to hand over my account to a system I developed. No system is perfect, but I believe this system is tailor made for my timeframe within the confines of the TSP vehicle. In order to back-test it, I had to renew my subscription to StockCharts. Given TSP share prices only go back into part of 2003, I had to settle for 2004 to today. If anyone has any TSP share prices going back further, I may be intersted in doing further backtesting.
Here are the results.
Time permitting I'll go into more details, but for now I'll just say the system has been on a buy for the I-Fund since 7 Apr 2009
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Note: these are all weekly charts.
While AGG did manage a .08% gain for the week, let's not kid ourselves. It put in a lower high and a lower low. Although prices haven't rolled over yet, I believe we are due for a pullback or sideways action, perhaps to the 20 SMA before the end of the year. Volume's 20 SMA is still declining while the slow stochastics have rolled over and are testing the previous swing low. For me the real story in bonds will have to be told by stocks and what they decide to do for the remainder of the year.
For the S&P 500 the next few weeks should be interesting as we approach the 50% Fibonacci level, and test the red resistance trendline going back to October 2007's highs. based on the Daily charts, I'd like to see some consolidation @ & above 1080, then a move higher pressing into 1125. Volume is still declining, but it's been that way for a long time now, so the volume declining/price rising picture is still intact. Slow stochastics are overbought and turning higher. At one point in time we use to care about being overbought, but this year has made what was once the exception, now the norm.
Normally I'll use histograms to represent $SPXA50, $SPXA150, & $SPXA200. I do this so that we can see the highs in the number of stocks trading above their averages. But sometimes this can be misleading because it doesn't let you see the lows in the same way. When we use candlesticks instead, you can clearly see that on the previous 2 swing lows, we have put in higher lows.
Our fallen friend the Dollar is such a sad chart. If you were a trader and you saw a stock like this you'd be thinking it's time for them to declare bankruptcy. The Dollar is sliding down the bottom of the bollinger band. Let's count this... 4/5 last candlesticks have pressed below the bottom bollinger band, and the last 2 put in lower highs and lower lows. And just look at the poor slow embedded down stochastic. It's been embedded over 5 months! Last chart I saw that ugly was the silver short ZSL....
Still more earnings to come out, so it should make for an interesting week, take care... JTH
Therfore I've decided to hand over my account to a system I developed. No system is perfect, but I believe this system is tailor made for my timeframe within the confines of the TSP vehicle. In order to back-test it, I had to renew my subscription to StockCharts. Given TSP share prices only go back into part of 2003, I had to settle for 2004 to today. If anyone has any TSP share prices going back further, I may be intersted in doing further backtesting.
Here are the results.
Time permitting I'll go into more details, but for now I'll just say the system has been on a buy for the I-Fund since 7 Apr 2009
_____________________________________
Note: these are all weekly charts.
While AGG did manage a .08% gain for the week, let's not kid ourselves. It put in a lower high and a lower low. Although prices haven't rolled over yet, I believe we are due for a pullback or sideways action, perhaps to the 20 SMA before the end of the year. Volume's 20 SMA is still declining while the slow stochastics have rolled over and are testing the previous swing low. For me the real story in bonds will have to be told by stocks and what they decide to do for the remainder of the year.
For the S&P 500 the next few weeks should be interesting as we approach the 50% Fibonacci level, and test the red resistance trendline going back to October 2007's highs. based on the Daily charts, I'd like to see some consolidation @ & above 1080, then a move higher pressing into 1125. Volume is still declining, but it's been that way for a long time now, so the volume declining/price rising picture is still intact. Slow stochastics are overbought and turning higher. At one point in time we use to care about being overbought, but this year has made what was once the exception, now the norm.
Normally I'll use histograms to represent $SPXA50, $SPXA150, & $SPXA200. I do this so that we can see the highs in the number of stocks trading above their averages. But sometimes this can be misleading because it doesn't let you see the lows in the same way. When we use candlesticks instead, you can clearly see that on the previous 2 swing lows, we have put in higher lows.
Our fallen friend the Dollar is such a sad chart. If you were a trader and you saw a stock like this you'd be thinking it's time for them to declare bankruptcy. The Dollar is sliding down the bottom of the bollinger band. Let's count this... 4/5 last candlesticks have pressed below the bottom bollinger band, and the last 2 put in lower highs and lower lows. And just look at the poor slow embedded down stochastic. It's been embedded over 5 months! Last chart I saw that ugly was the silver short ZSL....
Still more earnings to come out, so it should make for an interesting week, take care... JTH
