I forgot about this until I noticed a post of mine was 'Liked'. With the 2023 and 2024 returns, things are looking great. Using data from 2024/12/31:
Age: 60
Balance: $1,015K (as of 2024/12/31)
Investing: Alternate between three allocations (Conservative, Normal, Aggressive)
Expected Balance at age 65:
Retirement Age: 65
Expected Return: 8.00% - This is still under my IRR since 2004.
Expected Inflation: 3.0% - Once the FED gets control and forces the Gubmint to control their spending inflation will come down.
Expected Contributions: 20% of Gross Salary, 15% from me, 5% match
Results (inflation adjusted):
- Expected Balance: $1.615 million
- Expected Annual Withdraw (20 years): $105K
- Expected Annual Withdraw (30 years): $85K
- Expected Annual Withdraw (38 years): $77K
I am dialing back my risk. Using the guidance from Edelman for a 7% return I will get:
- Expected Balance: $1.545 million
- Expected Annual Withdraw (20 years): $93K
- Expected Annual Withdraw (30 years): $73K
- Expected Annual Withdraw (38 years): $65K
My likely retirement will occur next year at age 62 (I'm posting this late, but using numbers from 2024/12/31). My current allocation has a bit more risk, so annual return was expected to be 9%. So, my balance is currently well over expected. Another nice thang is the wifey is now a CPA, has a good job, and doesn't really want to quit when I ride off into my Blazing Saddles Sunset. Anyway, if we use 7% and a retirement age of 62 the numbers are as follows:
- Expected Balance: $1.204 million
- Expected Annual Withdraw (20 years): $72K
- Expected Annual Withdraw (30 years): $59K
- Expected Annual Withdraw (38 years): $53K
2023 and 2024 were great years that overcame the dumbness that was 2022. Yummy.
My plan is to hold about five years of withdraws in G/F. That way, I can buffet a five year market mess. That is about 23% of my current holdings. Quicken estimates a 9% annual return on that allocation with an 11% risk. So, 2/3rds of the time the annual return will be between -2% and +20%. Kinda swingy, so I will likely pull more back in G/F - maybe to 35% of the allocation, or to put it another way, a 7+ year buffer. This year has been great.
BTW, thanks bmneveu for reminding me of this thread with your 'Like'. It is a great placeholder for monitoring progress.