Based on my previous entries I'm well in front of my target:
Age: 57
Balance: $737K (as of 2020/12/31)
Investing: Alternate between three allocations (Conservative, Normal, Aggressive)
Expected Balance at age 65 (using Quicken and DinkyTown.Net):
Retirement Age: 65
Expected Return: 8.00% - This is under my IRR since 2004.
Expected Inflation: 3.0% - I still expect very muted inflation.
Expected Contributions: 20% of Gross Salary, 15% from me, 5% match
Results (inflation adjusted):
- Expected Balance: $1.564 million
- Expected Annual Withdraw (20 years): $93K
- Expected Annual Withdraw (30 years): $75K
- Expected Annual Withdraw (38 years): $68K
According to my financial advisor at Edelman Financial Engines, we need about $42K out of total retirement assets to live comfortably in retirement. We do have other retirement investments that will help out. It was Ron at Edelman that recommended that I use age 103 as the 'This is the End' date - basically when my wife will turn 95. Anyway, in the end I now need to have a return of about 5.6% in TSP alone to meet my retirement goal - and, we do have a decent nest egg outside of TSP.
A word of warning to the unsuspecting out there!!!
DO NOT EXPECT 20% gains in your TSP! TSP is merely a brokerage account. A 20% gain is an outlier. If you can handle volatility than figure a 9% or 10% average annual gain - which would be the 'C Fund'. A 20%+ gain like last year is not super rare, but you cannot count on it. Plus, if you nearing retirement age (say 60) ask yourself 'What would my retirement be like if my TSP balance was cut by 20% or 30%?'. If the answer is "Meh, no problem. I won't panic and I can live comfortably while the market recovers over three to five years" then invest in risk (C/S/I). If the answer is "I'm bailing because I want at least a good quality of Alpo" then Nope, don't go there. Look back at your transactions in 2001, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, and even 2015. If you bailed on the bottom than DO NOT invest fully in risk (C/S/I). Those corrections are also NOT super rare - and you will not have time to recoup from losses. Be careful out there.
Happy Hunting...