I forgot about this until I noticed a post of mine was 'Liked'.  With the 2023 and 2024 returns, things are looking great.  Using data from 2024/12/31:
Age: 60
Balance: $1,015K (as of 2024/12/31)
Investing: Alternate between three allocations (Conservative, Normal, Aggressive)
Expected Balance at age 65:
Retirement Age: 65
Expected Return: 8.00% - This is still under my IRR since 2004.
Expected Inflation: 3.0% - Once the FED gets control and forces the Gubmint to control their spending inflation will come down.
Expected Contributions: 20% of Gross Salary, 15% from me, 5% match
Results (inflation adjusted):
- Expected Balance: $1.615 million
 
- Expected Annual Withdraw (20 years): $105K
 
- Expected Annual Withdraw (30 years): $85K
 
- Expected Annual Withdraw (38 years): $77K
 
I am dialing back my risk. Using the guidance from Edelman for a 7% return I will get:
- Expected Balance: $1.545 million
 
- Expected Annual Withdraw (20 years): $93K
 
- Expected Annual Withdraw (30 years): $73K
 
- Expected Annual Withdraw (38 years): $65K
 
My likely retirement will occur next year at age 62 (I'm posting this late, but using numbers from 2024/12/31).  My current allocation has a bit more risk, so annual return was expected to be 9%.  So, my balance is currently well over expected.  Another nice thang is the wifey is now a CPA, has a good job, and doesn't really want to quit when I ride off into my Blazing Saddles Sunset.  Anyway, if we use 7% and a retirement age of 62 the numbers are as follows:
- Expected Balance: $1.204 million
 
- Expected Annual Withdraw (20 years): $72K
 
- Expected Annual Withdraw (30 years): $59K
 
- Expected Annual Withdraw (38 years): $53K
 
2023 and 2024 were great years that overcame the dumbness that was 2022.  Yummy.
My plan is to hold about five years of withdraws in G/F.  That way, I can buffet a five year market mess.  That is about 23% of my current holdings.  Quicken estimates a 9% annual return on that allocation with an 11% risk.  So, 2/3rds of the time the annual return will be between -2% and +20%.  Kinda swingy, so I will likely pull more back in G/F - maybe to 35% of the allocation, or to put it another way, a 7+ year buffer.  This year has been great.
BTW, thanks bmneveu for reminding me of this thread with your 'Like'.  It is a great placeholder for monitoring progress.