Sensei's account talk

[Sensei]

125 bucks to run a race?! Wow, no thanks. The Okinawa marathon is ¥4500, which is about 56 dollars. I thought that was expensive enough.

I'm on vacation in mainland Japan this week. Only have my iPhone, which I was not able to log into my TSP account with. So before leaving I did an IFT to set myself a little more defensively. Too bad I hadn't done it a day earlier. COB Friday:

20 G
20 F
30 C
30 S

 

[nasa1974]

Sensei, enjoy your vacation and have a Merry Christmas.

 

[Sensei]

Sensei, enjoy your vacation and have a Merry Christmas.

Thanks Nasa. It was a fun week up in Kyushu - the smallest of Japan's 4 main islands, but a heck of a lot bigger than Okinawa. My only regret was not taking the TSPTalk mug, but I was so loaded down with the wife and kids' luggage, I probably would have lost it somewhere. And I wouldn't want to lose such a valuable trophy.

Anyway, haven't had much time to think about my next TSP move, but I'd like to be back in before the new year. If the S&P closes down for a 4th straight day, this could be a good entry point. I'm going to hold my 60/40 position until I see the results of the Sentiment Survey. Look for me to jump back in either COB Friday or Monday.

 

[Sensei]

Reasons I should buy back in:

1. S&P has been down 5 straight days already. (Small caps only 4)
2. S&P touched the lower bollinger band yesterday, and will open around there today.
3. Sentiment Survey says I should buy.
4. Seasonality says I should buy.
5. Failed fiscal cliff negotiations are being priced in now, by Monday there should be more clarity and prices ought to move higher regardless the outcome.

Reasons I should not buy back in:

1. Over the last year or so, we have seen the S&P lose 7 straight days a couple times. One of those times it was down 11 of 13 days. So 5 or 6 down is not a deal maker.
2. Small caps still are hanging in the middle between bollinger bands, could drop much farther.
3. R2K has two big gaps way down south, waiting to get filled.
4. Failed fiscal cliff negotiations could lead to a crash, like summer of 2011 when we saw the debt ceiling and credit downgrades coming, and the market just tanked.
5. Most importantly, I'm 60/40 already, so why feel the urgency to catch a falling knife when a little over half of my account will catch it anyway?

 

[Sensei]

I know there's still one day to go, and it looks like it could be a pretty big day - not sure which direction yet, though. But I thought I'd take a moment to reflect on this year now, as I don't anticipate I'll move more than a few positions on the tracker (based on my current allocation of 60% stocks/ 40% not stocks, and the YTD returns of others around me on the AT).

It was a good sophomore season managing the account. Last year I had a negative return, and failed to beat the L2040 (where I had previously been buy and hold) and the C fund, though I did beat the S fund and Sentiment Survey - which was a slight moral victory. This year, my goal at the outset was to outperform the L2040 and end up with at least a 7% return. Accomplished. I'm pretty sure I'll stave off the I fund, and end up ahead of all the funds, so it somewhat validates the time and energy put into deciding when to make IFTs. I also boosted my contributions and started putting a little into the Roth, but I still have a long way to go before I max out my contributions.

My approach has been more aggressive than most who post on this forum. Whereas most are more bearish in nature and feel safer when their money is out of the market, I often feel there is more risk sitting on the side and missing an opportunity. I also, however, see my best insurance policy as staying fit and healthy and working into my 70s, then probably dying shortly after (I am a white male, after all ). So maybe I don't look at this as a retirement account so much as an investment I'll probably end up giving to my wife and kids. Nevertheless...

I look forward to seeing how I play the next year. The R2K has some serious gaps way down south, which suggest we might have a rocky road ahead of us. I wonder if I'll be able to adapt to a bear market better the next time it comes around than I did in the summer of 2011. I'd like to think I learned something from that fiasco. However, I have already fired off my last IFT of 2012, going full bore into the new year with a 100% S fund allocation. This is the year of the snake though, and they're said to be stingy, so I hope that doesn't rub off on the stock market. Look out for snake eyes!

Thanks to all that contribute to the forum. I look forward to another year with you. It's also exciting to see a surge in new members/threads. I hope all the noobs stick around and continue to make this a wonderful place to learn and help each other. Here's wishing you all a safe and Happy New Year!

-Sensei

 

[Cactus]

I also, however, see my best insurance policy as staying fit and healthy and working into my 70s, then probably dying shortly after (I am a white male, after all ). So maybe I don't look at this as a retirement account so much as an investment I'll probably end up giving to my wife and kids.

That can be very important. I used to have the same idea about my TSP as we had an old fashioned marriage where I was the sole bread winner. I wanted to save the TSP for my wife as the FERS annuity gets cut in half for her when I go, and she won't have anything else.

Unfortunately, my wife got real scared last year with government employees becoming the renewed target for cuts. The proposed cuts to our pension, and our lackluster investment performance over the years scared her to death. What finally convinced her that she must to go back to work while she still had her health was getting Christmas cards from her old ATC friends last year, most of whom where now retiring due to the mandatory retirement age.

So she ended up getting a job in retail last February because she thought she had to do something. Not a good situation. You need to make sure your wife feels secure.

 

[Sensei]

A little preview of 2013 for all of you on the other side of the dateline. First sunrise of the New Year from my front yard. :toung:

 

[uscfanhawaii]

A little preview of 2013 for all of you on the other side of the dateline. First sunrise of the New Year from my front yard. :toung:

NICE!!

We will be one of the LAST....here in Hawaii!!

 

[ILoveTDs]

Congratulations on the AT Sensei.

I look forward to us crossing paths again next year, and the light ribbing.

 

[Sensei]

Congratulations on the AT Sensei.

I look forward to us crossing paths again next year, and the light ribbing.

Thanks TDs! I enjoy reading your posts and following your moves. I wish you and your family nothing but the best in 2013. And, yeah, the ribbing's fun too.

 

[Sensei]

Over the weekend, I made an IFT to 100% S fund on the tsp.gov site, then entered it here on the Auto Tracker. Tsp.gov did not send me a confirmation email, as they usually do. I checked my account, and it shows that I am indeed 100% S as of COB Monday, so I think everything is OK. I'm just posting here as a reminder - when the site tells you to print that page for your records, print that page for your records! I need to start following that advice myself! :embarrest:

 

[WorkFE]

Good year Sensei. Here's hoping for another happy investing year.

 

[Sensei]

No time to stay up and watch the open tonight. Planning to run 16 miles in the morning. I need my beauty rest.

I just wanted to check in to let you know I moved half to bonds. I hate jumping out of a raging bull market, but I stared and stared at the charts, and read everyone's posts, and here's what I see:

• SPX is stretched to the upside, outside the bollinger band.
• AGG is stretched to the downside, against the bollinger band.
• For much of the latter half of the year, I tried to go against the top 50 on our tracker. At this time of year, the top 50 is irrelevent. One can only look at the herd. Typically, I felt comfortable going against a 65/35 split in the top 50. The herd is always more conservative and harder to read. But right now, we're 62% stocks, 38% cash and bonds. So that's a pretty extreme bullish reading that I feel comfortable going against.
• The Sentiment Survey is on a sell.

So, I'm moving half my account to F, and splitting up the other half among the stock funds (idiot proofing in a bull market). Here's the new allocation:

F - 50%
C - 20%
S - 20%
I - 10%

My hope is a pullback or consolidation to the 20 day, then buy back in for the rest of the month. Could be soon.

Good year Sensei. Here's hoping for another happy investing year.

Thanks WorkFE - best of luck this year!

 

[Sensei]

My 30% stake in the C & I funds are really weighing me down. Obviously when you diversify, you have to accept the bad with the good, but I'm just a little surprised at how buoyant the small caps have been. I wish I had just gone 50F/50S. Oh well.

I'm itching to get back in 100%. In my perfect scenario, we'd see the SPX down 3 straight days, touching the 20 day SMA on the third. So far we have two days in the red, but the 20 day is still pretty far down there. It might take a couple more days to shake out, if at all. We could also bounce from here and keep hugging the upper bolly into February. That would be the most frustrating scenario for people on the sidelines, so is probably what will end up happening.

So, nothing in stone yet. A third red day might entice me to use my 2nd IFT to trade my bonds for stocks. If we bounce, I'll probably hold my split position until I see the sentiment survey this week. Keep on truckin'...

 

[Sensei]

S&P futures are up pretty good. +0.26% right now. Things could change, but I expect today to push up toward the top of the bollinger band again. I'm trying to find a reason to be bearish, but it's pretty damn hard. The Sentiment Survey is ridiculously bullish, and it would take a reversal to the downside to swing the vote to a buy. So is that going to fail us again this year?

Interestingly, Ocean's List shows over 53% of the herd on the sidelines. I'm reading about how overbought the market is, but if over half of us are licking our chops waiting to get in, maybe there are still some legs under this thing. I might just have to chase. :notrust:

 

[Sensei]

I've resigned myself to hold my 50/50 position until one of the next things happens:

• Sentiment Survey buy signal
• Test of the 20 day SMA
• Last week of the month

Even if we rally another 5% from here, I'll catch half the gains, and at least have a big toe in the stupid I fund that I can't possibly make any sense of.

***

Another big run in the mornin'. I missed my goal of 16 miles last week - only managed 14.5. Tomorrow I'm going for the 16. Next week 18, then two weeks from now 20. Then I slow it up for two weeks until the marathon. The biggest problem is the time it takes to do these runs (5-8 mile runs during the week as well). So, it's off the bed I go.

 

[clester]

I've resigned myself to hold my 50/50 position until one of the next things happens:

• Sentiment Survey buy signal
• Test of the 20 day SMA
• Last week of the month

Even if we rally another 5% from here, I'll catch half the gains, and at least have a big toe in the stupid I fund that I can't possibly make any sense of.

***

Another big run in the mornin'. I missed my goal of 16 miles last week - only managed 14.5. Tomorrow I'm going for the 16. Next week 18, then two weeks from now 20. Then I slow it up for two weeks until the marathon. The biggest problem is the time it takes to do these runs (5-8 mile runs during the week as well). So, it's off the bed I go.

I love the 50-50 strategy in times like these. You can claim victory on either side.

 

[Handballer]

Wishing you luck on your marathan run. You may what to carry a bottle of .

Those last four or five hours of the run can be tough.

 

[Sensei]

Haha! Thanks Handballer! I've never tried the 5-hour Energy though - I hear it's caused some problems for some people. I had a lot of knee pain on my last big run on Saturday. I made 15 miles, but the last 3-4 I was all ankles. A friend of mine suggested I should take a week off, then slow down my practice pace. So this week I'm doing 30 minutes on my exercise bike instead of runs outdoors. Lower impact, but keeping me in shape cardiovascularly. It's a lot more of a challenge than I expected, but I'm enjoying it!

 

[Sensei]

Looks like I'll be in Okinawa for several more years. The director of DOD schools today declared that there will be no voluntary transfers for teachers this year due to budget cuts, uncertainty with the debt ceiling, and continued downsizing and base closures in Europe. Not that I really intended to transfer anywhere, but it felt better when I thought I was here by choice rather than being told I have to stay here indefinitely. Oh well, maybe I'll buy a boat or something.