Sensei's account talk

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You have a valid point.

Cactus said:
Maybe it's just me, but I've grown reluctant to put too much stock in what the Top 50 do at the end of the year. The way I look at it is they made there money this year. There is no need to take any more risk. The Top 50 are sitting at better than 16% for the year. If I had that I'd park it in the garage and have me an early Christmas. ;)
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Show-me said:
I'm feeling it too Sensei. I plan to take some of my I fund portion off the table.
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I'm going to defy my fear and stay invested a while longer. It's times like these I hear Birchtree whispering "sometimes there's more risk being out of the market than being in the market".

Cactus said:
Maybe it's just me, but I've grown reluctant to put too much stock in what the Top 50 do at the end of the year. The way I look at it is they made there money this year. There is no need to take any more risk. The Top 50 are sitting at better than 16% for the year. If I had that I'd park it in the garage and have me an early Christmas. ;)
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You may have a point - and I'm not disagreeing with you - but if that is the case, I think it's foolish to take a more conservative stance at the end of the year just to preserve your YTD return. The tracker might reset to 0 on 01 JAN, but your TSP account balance does not. Only your own horizon for retirement should determine your level of aggressiveness, or so I've been conditioned to believe.

Nevertheless, yeah, if I were Swavet with a 30% return, I'd probably enjoy sitting on the sidelines watching everyone else scramble to catch me. Haha. He's posted on the forum a few times this year. Kind of like to hear what his strategy is for closing the year out on top.
 
I'll be running the Okinawa Marathon in February. Been training steadily, and starting to see results. I ran 10 miles on Saturday - first time I've ever run that far. Did it in 80 minutes, for an average 8:00 minute/mile. I'm aiming to run the marathon in under 4 hours. I'd set a loftier goal, but I have a friend coming down from mainland Japan to run with me, and he's a little less serious about it. I figure we'll stick together for a few miles, then I'll have to let him fend for himself. :D

Not overly bullish about this coming week, but I'm going to stay the course in the S fund, 100%. Peace!
 
Well Sensei, you've done well for yourself this year. You are part of the top 25 that everyone is looking at, so I'm sure you know what you are doing. Keep up the good work.

Oh, the 8:00 minute/mile sounds real good. Try not to leave him in the dust.
 
Sensei said:
I'll be running the Okinawa Marathon in February. Been training steadily, and starting to see results. I ran 10 miles on Saturday - first time I've ever run that far. Did it in 80 minutes, for an average 8:00 minute/mile. I'm aiming to run the marathon in under 4 hours. I'd set a loftier goal, but I have a friend coming down from mainland Japan to run with me, and he's a little less serious about it. I figure we'll stick together for a few miles, then I'll have to let him fend for himself. :D
QUOTE]

You should of run your first 10 miler several months earlier. You should be running at least 40 miles a week now. To run a four hour marathon you have to average better than 9 minutes per mile. Good luck to you.
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Handballer said:
You should of run your first 10 miler several months earlier. You should be running at least 40 miles a week now. To run a four hour marathon you have to average better than 9 minutes per mile. Good luck to you.
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???
I've got another 10 weeks to work up to it. I'm following a program that builds the miles incrementally. Two weeks prior to the marathon I'll run 20 miles, then ratchet it down so my body can recover by race day. I'll be fine.
 
congratulations on your prep and effort, i stand in awe. i could probably only run an 8 minute mile if a cop was chasing me. and that's only if you prorate the first lap, because after two minutes i would be racked over and heaving.

i was going to start eating better and exercising to cut my time down, but then i realized it was much easier just to not get chased by cops. problem solved. now i just run in my mind, visualize success, i win every time.
 
I believe that second wind is expelled from within, if you know what I mean. :sick::embarrest::toung:
 
Sensei said:
I believe that second wind is expelled from within, if you know what I mean. :sick::embarrest::toung:
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Ahhhh, do you mean expelled from the backside??? Well, that would give you a little assistance, sort of like a C-130 with RATO, but it wouldn't get you very far in your 26.2. :nuts:
 
All right, so there's a fiscal cliff, the 50 day SMA acting as overhead resistance, the market still moderately overbought from the last rally, and a seeming intermediate term down trend. BUT, if you want to be bullish, here's my best attempt at a bull chart.

Big bull flag, with the long-term rising trend line cutting up to form a wedge. The makings of an inverted H&S. My money's on a higher low and a breakout above the flag by year's end.

SPX 2012_12_04.png

Edit: My charts almost always go wickedly wrong. I'm starting to get a bad voodoo vibe now a few minutes after posting, so I want to be sure to add the fact that the futures have pulled back from their overnight highs - and, well, they are generally a poor predicter of how the day is going to play out anyway - so being that the futures are still up and I am 100% S, I would expect something catastrophic to happen today. So, there, now I've covered the bearish perspective as well. Now my superstitious self feels a little better.
 
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I also see the inverted H&s setup. I think we will chop down and around a few more days to put in the right shoulder though. I really worry that once the cliff thing is resolved it will be a non event or a sell the news event.
 
CrabClaw said:
I also see the inverted H&s setup. I think we will chop down and around a few more days to put in the right shoulder though. I really worry that once the cliff thing is resolved it will be a non event or a sell the news event.
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Agreed, I think we will see a sneak up on the cliff, the pols will make a deal and everyone that is relieved will buy into a market where the big money bites will sell the news....Then we will have to hope the Santa Rally will at least give us something to hold onto going into 2013.
 
Is it just me, or was the North Korean missile launch largely shrugged off by the western media? Yeah, it's there to read about on the major internet news outlets, but certainly doesn't dominate the headlines. Americans are more interested in some singer whose plane crashed and roided out football players killing people. This North Korean issue is serious. They not only succeeded in launching a long-range missile into space, they did it without any detection or resistance by the U.S. or our allies. They absolutely caught us with our pants down. Unless this is the plan - kind of how FDR ignored intel about the Pearl Harbor attack and let it happen as a way for us to get drawn into the war. I don't think so though. I think this was just a case of us getting beat. When I was a kid, we'd have shot that missile down and answered to the international community later. Too much pussy-footing around China and the Islamic community these days. There's right (freedom, independence, democracy) and there's wrong (oppression, fanaticism, communism). We need another Rocky movie, or a sequel to Commando or something. Anyway, now that I've got that off my chest...

The S&P has been green 5 consecutive days - something's got to give. But here at TSP Talk, the herd is still only 53% in stocks, while the top 50 is split 50/50%. I'm thinking we'll get Wall Of Worry type action for a couple weeks here. Maybe down .3% for a couple days, then up .5% the next couple. Enough to keep the weak of heart on the sidelines, while those who stick it out will find themselves up a percent or 2 at the end of the week/month. We'll see. I'm looking forward to the Sentiment Survey giving me some more direction for next week.
 
Sensei says "I'll be running the Okinawa Marathon in February." What is/was the entry fee? All the marathons I ran in Honolulu, Kona and Maui were $15 or less R a little more.


For the Honolulu Marathon run on Dec 9th, it was
Race Info

The Honolulu Marathon
will be held on Sunday, December 9, 2012.
2012 Honolulu Marathon Entry Fee Schedule​
[TABLE="width: 100%"]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[TD="width: 110"]FEE SCHEDULE
[/TD]
[TD="width: 85"]by May 25
[/TD]
[TD="width: 125"]May 26 - Sept. 28
[/TD]
[TD="width: 120"]Sept. 29 - Nov. 9
[/TD]
[TD="width: 110"]Nov. 10 - Dec. 8
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 125"]International
[/TD]
[TD]$180
[/TD]
[TD]$220
[/TD]
[TD]$240
[/TD]
[TD="width: 125"]$280
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 125"]U.S.
[/TD]
[TD]$125
[/TD]
[TD]$155
[/TD]
[TD]$175
[/TD]
[TD="width: 125"]$280
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 125"]Hawaii
[/TD]
[TD]$95
[/TD]
[TD]$120
[/TD]
[TD]$140
[/TD]
[TD="width: 125"]$280
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
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