Sensei's account talk

[RealMoneyIssues]

Bad jobs report - We're going down again today.

It was expected, lets see how it plays out throughout the day.

 

[Sensei]

Bad jobs report - We're going down again today.

It was expected, lets see how it plays out throughout the day.

Holy crap! So far, not starting out well. I last bought in at 1372, and we just went below 1380. The SMAs are history. The EMAs give only a vague glimmer of hope with support at the 50 (for now). Red alert! Panic! Ahhhhh!




OK. Had to get that out of my system.

 

[TSPIntel]

sensei: sometimes greedy does not allow us to protect our profits... it happens...

 

[Sensei]

sensei: sometimes greedy does not allow us to protect our profits... it happens...

I guess greedy is one way of perceiving my still being invested in stocks. I don't really think of myself as greedy though. I'm just trying to put my money where the trend is, and the trend is still a bull market. I don't know the future.

I do know that I intend to work until 65 regardless of my success managing my finances. Watched my old man go crazy as a bat from retiring too soon when he was still full of life and energy. Like Neil Young sang, "old man take a look at my life, I'm a lot like you were..." Anyway, I had a great weekend playing at the beach with my kids. Didn't check the internet for 2 days. Summer vacation is right around the corner. Life is good.

 

[tsptalk]

I don't know the future.

Rats!

Watched my old man go crazy as a bat from retiring too soon when he was still full of life and energy.

Very interesting. That is something that may not be discussed enough.

When I was in my mid - late 30's, all I wanted to do was retire early (by 50'ish) from my 9 to 5 job. Now that I found something I really enjoy doing, I don't even think about retirement in the same way. Building my retirement account will come in handy one day, but right now it's just a way to keep score. So that may be the key. Keep working, but find something you love to do.

 

[SkyPilot]

http://www.ssa.gov/planners/lifeexpectancy.htm

 

[Sensei]

Would you believe I actually made an IFT yesterday? Made it, then cancelled it before the deadline. When I logged into tsp.gov, the S&P was down .31%. I went 100% F. Then I made the transaction on the tracker. Then I checked the S&P, and it was down only .04%. So I cancelled. Now the DAX is wicked down, as are the S&P futures. Geez, man. :embarrest:

 

[Ron55]

So Tom what job are you doing right now that gives you enjoyment? With downsizing taking place all over the country the stress level has dramatically increased.

 

[Sensei]

Going 100% F. Reminds me too much of July/August. :suspicious:

 

[Sensei]

Going 100% F. Reminds me too much of July/August. :suspicious:

Didn't stay out long. Back in at:
F - 1%
C - 1%
S - 95%
I - 3% (Why can't I quit this fund!?)

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Didn't stay out long. Back in at:
F - 1%
C - 1%
S - 95%
I - 3% (Why can't I quit this fund!?)

Wow, that was a fast turn around... good sign?

 

[MaStA]

Wow, that was a fast turn around... good sign?

I hope so but who knows with this weird market...

 

[Sensei]

Wow, that was a fast turn around... good sign?

Nah. Support at the 100 day SMA, but who looks at that? I just had a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach that I had sold at the bottom, then I got excited to see the S fund down another 1.5% about two hours into trading. I figured I might buy back in and leapfrog all the B&Hers. Turns out this trade only helped me save .4% of a loss, while costing both my IFTs. Now all I can do for the rest of May is hold and sell. I put a percent into each fund though, so I can screw with TSP all month.

 

[Sensei]

I have a bad track record with technical analysis. :embarrest: Here's what I'm predicting. I think we're seeing some sideways action that will form a wedge and eventually break down toward the 200 SMA. Not sure when it might happen, but I'm starting to think about selling strength. Maybe 10-15% at a time. If 1340'ish falls, my guess is look out below. Please tell me I'm wrong.

 

[Sensei]

My thought, now, is that this is not an ascending bearish wedge or channel, but rather a descending one. Especially if one looks at the close rather than the candlesticks. So I went back looking for what might happen after a steep decline followed by a mildly descending channel or wedge. Enter July 2011.

June '11 looked a hell of a lot like April of this year, "W" shape ending in a rally back to the highs of the month. What followed was a sharp drop, 5 days of sideways, and a sharp but brief rally, forming a smaller "W" just before falling off a cliff.

We have just come off a sharp drop and 5 days of sideways. You complete my thought.

Candlesticks


Lines

 

[Sensei]

Today's going to be a BAAAD day. I think I'm going to sell half of what I've got and let the other half just do whatever the market wants to do with it. Still 13 trading days left in May. I need an antacid.

 

[weatherweenie]

Today's going to be a BAAAD day. I think I'm going to sell half of what I've got and let the other half just do whatever the market wants to do with it. Still 13 trading days left in May. I need an antacid.

Sure isn't looking promising, to say the least!

 

[Sensei]

I have a bad track record with technical analysis. :embarrest: Here's what I'm predicting. I think we're seeing some sideways action that will form a wedge and eventually break down toward the 200 SMA. Not sure when it might happen, but I'm starting to think about selling strength. Maybe 10-15% at a time. If 1340'ish falls, my guess is look out below. Please tell me I'm wrong.

View attachment 18840

I should have listened when none of you told me I was wrong.

 

[Sensei]

Quick update of my current allocation, effective COB Monday:

50 - G
01 - F
01 - C
45 - S
03 - I

If we were closer to the end of the month, I'd have dumped it all in G. But a rally of some sort seems inevitable in the next week or so. If all works out, I'll sell the remaining 49% stock position during the next rally, and buy back in at a new low in June.

At times of market transition, it's kind of nice being 50/50. I went to sleep last night without worrying which way the market goes.

 

[Sensei]

I might be trying to predict the future a little too much here. What do you think?