Sensei's account talk

[Sensei]

Looking at the chart in my last post, I see that since Oct 27 - when we first broke through the 200 SMA - the immediate result was a big move back down. With today's weak open and all the bullishness, I might have to jump ship. 2 fresh IFTs await in just a few days.

 

[Sensei]

When all was said and done, I only took 10% off the table yesterday. Now stacked up like this:

G - 10%
C - 31%
S - 55%
I - 4%

Here's what I'm reading about this evening:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...48590078.html?mod=WSJASIA_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews
U.S. Criticizes Japan, China on Currencies
The Treasury Department, in its overdue semiannual currency report, offered its
most direct criticism to date of Japan's two latest currency interventions,
which the U.S. didn't support. The move could complicate any further attempts by
Tokyo to intervene in currency markets...


Ironic. Why is it OK for the U.S. to manipulate its currency, but not Japan? The exchange rate over here is ￥76 to $1. I took my family out to a Japanese fast food chain for lunch yesterday, and it cost ￥3000. That's 40 freakin' bucks! We do what we can shopping at the BX and commissary, but fresh produce has to be bought locally. I get COLA, but it hasn't been raised since the dollar dropped below ￥90, two summers ago. Wah, wah, whine, wine - got any cheese? Anyway, I think our politicians are a bunch of hypocrites, but what else is new?

 

[nnuut]

How much would that meal cost in Tokyo?

 

[Show-me]

Re: Sensei's Account Talk

LOL, because.........................

 

[Sensei]

How much would that meal cost in Tokyo?

All I can say is years ago, on my first night ever in Japan, I went out to dinner in Tokyo and ordered a beer that cost me ￥900. That was in 1997!

 

[nnuut]

All I can say is years ago, on my first night ever in Japan, I went out to dinner in Tokyo and ordered a beer that cost me ￥900. That was in 1997!

I can imagine what a BEER would cost in the Toyko Airport!

 

[Sensei]

I wussed out. New allocation:

G - 75%
C - 8%
S - 13%
I - 4%

200 SMA broke, which is my current sell signal. I'm hoping for two things. #1 - that we don't go as low as SPX 1246 today. That's the price I sold at last time, but I bought back in at 1226, so I'm still OK I guess. #2 - that we get another buy in opportunity at or near the 100 SMA, around 1205.

 

[Mcqlives]

We busted the 200 SMA today, but the test is whether it holds next week. May be time to start moving to G in increments. I'm finally getting my "W", and think the second leg up still has a little way to go. I don't wanna get burned though...

You nailed it with the chart you posted a few days ago...that second leg just didn't have anything behind it!

I wussed out. New allocation:

G - 75%
C - 8%
S - 13%
I - 4%

200 SMA broke, which is my current sell signal. I'm hoping for two things. #1 - that we don't go as low as SPX 1246 today. That's the price I sold at last time, but I bought back in at 1226, so I'm still OK I guess. #2 - that we get another buy in opportunity at or near the 100 SMA, around 1205.

I hope 1205 waits till next week so I have a chance to get in. If it hits that price I will have bought in at 1218, sold at 1265 and then back in even lower! That will bode really well for 2012!

 

[Sensei]

... I will have bought in at 1218, sold at 1265 and then back in even lower! That will bode really well for 2012!

Nice trade. Looks like I bought at 1226 and sold at 1249. Not Hall of Fame material, but better than nothing.

I'm going into the New Year with kind of a new approach - I left 25% in stocks, and will probably always keep 25% out of stocks as the year goes on. In other words, always have half of my account buying and holding at 25%G/25% stocks, leaving the other 50% to trade. It's not going to win me any coffee mugs, but hopefully will preserve some of my money through wild swings.

 

[Mcqlives]

Nice trade. Looks like I bought at 1226 and sold at 1249. Not Hall of Fame material, but better than nothing.

I'm going into the New Year with kind of a new approach - I left 25% in stocks, and will probably always keep 25% out of stocks as the year goes on. In other words, always have half of my account buying and holding at 25%G/25% stocks, leaving the other 50% to trade. It's not going to win me any coffee mugs, but hopefully will preserve some of my money through wild swings.

Sounds as good as anything in this market. I just keep buying I (100% of each pay check TSP allocation) but prefer to be all in or all out depending on what I think is happening. Back when we had unlimited moves I make a killing but the 2 moves a month with a bail to G has made it hard on me...I wait to jump in and then stay in too long. Looks like I will have edged out about 20% return this year...not as good as I think I would have done with unlimited moves but pretty good (and lucky) considering the market overall. One caveat for me; I have between 8 and 15 years till I retire (like to vs have to) so I am more aggressive than some on this board...but when the really aggressive (like Birch) start talking about pulling some off the table I run for the garage!

 

[Sensei]

Oh great, we're headed back up again. And I can't get back in until the 2nd day of January, at which point we'll probably be at SPX 1300! That's why I left 25% where it is. Cuz I'm too dumm to pick 'em right.


Hey Mcglives! With a 20% return this year, you could be at the top of the AT. Why don't you sign yourself up and maybe start an account thread? I'd read what you have to say!

 

[WorkFE]

Pending home sales jump. We could go vertical today.

 

[Warrenlm]

It's going to be touch and go but we might find Jan 1, 2012 = Jan 1, 2011.

 

[WorkFE]

That seems like a decade ago.

 

[WorkFE]

How about the 1st week of May 2011.

 

[Sensei]

Re: Sensei's Account Talk

If we close above the 200SMA again today, I'd say that is a bullish sign. That means it is becoming support, whereas it has been resistance up to now. I moved 1% to each of the stock funds, and might jump back in next week. The 100 SMA is sloping up. The 200 is flat, and looking like it could turn up. I think the LMBF will move to stocks. I'll check back when I wake up in the morning. Nighty night America!

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Sensei's Account Talk

If we close above the 200SMA again today, I'd say that is a bullish sign. That means it is becoming support, whereas it has been resistance up to now. I moved 1% to each of the stock funds, and might jump back in next week. The 100 SMA is sloping up. The 200 is flat, and looking like it could turn up. I think the LMBF will move to stocks. I'll check back when I wake up in the morning. Nighty night America!

Sensei, The market is looking a bit weak right now hope it gets stronger as the day moves on. Have a great New Year see you in 2012.

 

[Sensei]

We closed a hair below the 200 SMA. So now I'm more confused than ever. Could be a top. Will hold to see if we head down toward the 50&100 SMAs, or bounce back up.

 

[Sensei]

It's official, here is my final place on the Auto Tracker for 2011:
[TABLE="width: 90%"]


[TR="bgcolor: #cccccc"]
[TD="class: text, width: 4%, align: center"]559[/TD]
[TD="class: text-link, width: 13%, align: left"]Sensei *[/TD]
[TD="class: text, width: 7%, align: right"]-3.69%[/TD]
[/TR]


[/TABLE]
To be fair to myself, I was up about 2% before I signed up, so I think I finished just a little below L2040, which was my benchmark for performance. This was my first year trying to manage my TSP, and I think I learned a thing or two. I'll see how I do in 2012 before deciding whether I am actually competent enough to handle my own money, or go back to buying and holding an L fund.

Be safe this New Year's Eve!

 

[Birchtree]

I was deep into the dark I fund all year - but things have a way of changing so I plan to stay right where I am awhile longer. "The number of NYSE stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving average has increased to a respectable 69% from almost 21% in November."