Sensei's account talk

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Good Morning Sensei

Hope you had a good New Year's Eve and so far a good day.

I've got a great investment idea. Since you are in the future (13 hours ahead of EST) you know what the S&P 500 close is before we know the open and...

If you act totally serious when talking nonsense like this, especially if alcohol is involved, you get people to buy off on it for a while. It worked for me tonight.

The time change also confused supposedly sober people at HQ during my many TDYs to the far east. "Implement the changes and call me back before the end of the day" Your day or ours, sir? "Report back to me by 1600 Sergeant". So, you want us to work tonight to implement these changes, sir? "No, sergeant, implement them today and report to me by 1600"...

Ahh, memories. I just had to share.

Best of luck to you in the coming year.
 
Thanks PO! Due to the time difference, does that mean I'm going to die first when the world ends on 12/21? :sick:
 
Just for the record, I made 23 IFTs in 2011. (Looks like that data might get lost when the AT begins a new year)
 
The "Big Picture", as seen by me:

Back in 2010, when the S&P dipped below the 200 day SMA, it flirted with breaking through a few times, ending in failure until Sept. It stalled about 30 points above the MA, then retreated back before a bounce and 6-month rally. We're about 20 points above the MA right now, something we haven't achieved since the bottom dropped out in July. In the short term, I wouldn't be surprised to drop back down, but I think for the longer term we're going to start climbing the hill again. As I'm already 100% invested, and have already used one of my IFTs, I'm going to take a page out of the book of Birchtree. I think, at least for the intermediate term, one will have to be very crafty to beat buy and hold. I'm not that crafty.

big.chart

Current allocation:
C - 50%
S - 45%
I - 5%
:worried:
 
I didn't vote in our sentiment survey this week. If I had, I would have voted bearish. I think at the end of the week we'll be sitting between SPX 1255-60. Down 1.4-1.7%. It'll be a good week - I'll just look away for a little while and maybe be a little more productive than usual. Hey Birchtree! Need a little help mowing the lawn? :D
 
Re: Sensei's Account Talk

Kangaroo tails. They were overhead as we topped in early December before taking a dip. Now we have quite a few below us. Top or hop? I don't know. Tune in tomorrow.

big.chart
 
Re: Sensei's Account Talk

Sensei said:
Kangaroo tails. They were overhead as we topped in early December before taking a dip. Now we have quite a few below us. Top or hop? I don't know. Tune in tomorrow.

big.chart
Click to expand...

Most everybody will be watching tomorrow. I for one who would like to be right about a drop as I am 552 on the tracker and would like to go up.:D
 
Re: Sensei's Account Talk

Bquat said:
Most everybody will be watching tomorrow. I for one who would like to be right about a drop as I am 552 on the tracker and would like to go up.:D
Click to expand...

It certainly wouldn't surprise me to see one or two days of bleeding this week to scare a lot of people to the sidelines, then reverse to the upside leaving everyone behind. I only have one IFT, which is basically the same as no IFTs, since I'm already in stocks. I'm just going to ride it out. If I were a person on the sidelines, though, I would wait for the SPX to get between 1270-1260, then buy in. If it goes below the 200 SMA, I'd reassess, but I'm hoping that will be support.
 
Re: Sensei's Account Talk

Sensei said:
It certainly wouldn't surprise me to see one or two days of bleeding this week to scare a lot of people to the sidelines, then reverse to the upside leaving everyone behind. I only have one IFT, which is basically the same as no IFTs, since I'm already in stocks. I'm just going to ride it out. If I were a person on the sidelines, though, I would wait for the SPX to get between 1270-1260, then buy in. If it goes below the 200 SMA, I'd reassess, but I'm hoping that will be support.
Click to expand...
A retest and hold of the 200 SMA could cause a bullish movement that can break the resistance above us but I fear it won't hold. I may partially enter if it holds.
 
Bquat said:
Did you like my three 2012 charts?
Click to expand...

Yes! Especially the mid & long term ones. It looks like 1350 could pose a lot of overhead resistance this year. Probably a good place to sell whenever we get there. The bottom of your channel (about 1100 if I remember?) is way down below. I think a cross below the 200 SMA is a nice place to jump to safety.
 
Sensei said:
Yes! Especially the mid & long term ones. It looks like 1350 could pose a lot of overhead resistance this year. Probably a good place to sell whenever we get there. The bottom of your channel (about 1100 if I remember?) is way down below. I think a cross below the 200 SMA is a nice place to jump to safety.
Click to expand...
I agree. I hope tomorrow isn't a sleep in. I want to see the open. Since your in gap up or improve mt tracker position gap down. Good luck, tomorrow may be a long day.
 
Re: Sensei's Account Talk

Big tail above now. So look back to October 12. Similar setup. Down the next day, then up & down, and ultimately much higher. But I need an exit strategy. Once we get over 1300, the air is going to get pretty thin...

Sensei said:
Kangaroo tails. They were overhead as we topped in early December before taking a dip. Now we have quite a few below us. Top or hop? I don't know. Tune in tomorrow.

big.chart
Click to expand...
 
Re: Sensei's Account Talk

I've been pondering what to do with 1 IFT left for the month, and already being fully invested. I could keep it for an exit and move to F rather than G. But I don't know if I want to be out of the market this month, and I think if I do, I don't want to take on the risk of not only watching stocks gain while I'm out, but also watching bonds drop. I think instead that I'll wait for a day where it looks like the market will be down and trade my 50% C position for S. Not sure whether to do it today, or wait and watch...

Currently still
C = 50%
S = 45%
I = 5%
 
Went to check the Asian and European markets on WSJ online, and they replaced the charts on the front page with advertising!:mad: I can still get to the charts on their MarketWatch page, but I liked having the charts and the headlines of the world news in one place. It's like when Facebook arbitrarily changes the look of your profile. Change isn't always for the better.

Anyway, it looks like European indexes are making another significant move up today. Yesterday probably would have been my day to swap my position in C for a greater position in S. I'd expect S to log at least a half percent more than C today. Oh well.
 
nasa1974 said:
The jobs report may put a damper on the market today.
Click to expand...
Funny how quickly things can change. As soon as I hit "post", I went back to check on Europe, and all the major indices were in a free fall. Looks like they are bouncing before going into the red, but certainly not the gains of just 15-20 minutes ago. Oh, and the WSJ is giving me the "Market Data Center" on its main page again. Maybe this is all just as sign that it's time to go to bed.

Zzzzz....
 
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