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Sensei's account talk
- Thread starter Sensei
- Start date
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
First of all, I'm obviously a card carrying member of the dumb money. Languishing at #580 with a return of -5.2% 
Now, here's what I'm watching. The 200 SMA has been resistance since late October, and has managed to thwart the current upswing for the last four days. There have been pretty good sized kangaroo tales above those four days, which makes me want to lean bearish. But yesterday actually had a longer tale at the bottom, which could be a bullish sign. The 100 SMA has been support (pretty much anyway) recently, so if we do go down, I'll look to buy back in when we get there. If we close above the 200 SMA today, I'll look to stay above it again on Friday before giving in to chase gains:
Still 25% in stocks, and 75% in G for now.
Now, here's what I'm watching. The 200 SMA has been resistance since late October, and has managed to thwart the current upswing for the last four days. There have been pretty good sized kangaroo tales above those four days, which makes me want to lean bearish. But yesterday actually had a longer tale at the bottom, which could be a bullish sign. The 100 SMA has been support (pretty much anyway) recently, so if we do go down, I'll look to buy back in when we get there. If we close above the 200 SMA today, I'll look to stay above it again on Friday before giving in to chase gains:
Still 25% in stocks, and 75% in G for now.
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
I was looking for follow-through to the downside today, so I could feel confident about buying back in next week. But Europe has already pretty much recouped yesterday's losses. Makes me think we'll do the same. So the question is, was yesterday the fake, or is today? For now, patience is the name of the game. Holding my position.
RealMoneyIssues
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 101
Maybe not, take a look at futures in the last 15 minutes:
http://www.forexpros.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures-advanced-chart
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
Goes to show that just when I think I know nothing, it turns out I know even less.:blink:
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
Re: Sensei's Account Talk
I'm anything but confident of the direction we're headed next week. I've been hanging my hat on the pinball back and forth between the 200 and 100 SMA, but I'm starting to think the inverse H&S is in play now. If that's the case, I still think we might need a dip lower to complete the shoulder before heading back up. But maybe Thursday's dip was all that was necessary.
The other thing that makes me think we might continue higher is the substantial gain of the small caps in proportion to the S&P today. The S-fund was much higher than the C-fund, and the R2K was almost twice as much. If I'm not mistaken, the small caps usually lead the large caps, so that ought to be viewed as a bullish sign I guess. I think before I capitulate and chase gains, I want to see price get above the 200 SMA and hold for a day.
I'm anything but confident of the direction we're headed next week. I've been hanging my hat on the pinball back and forth between the 200 and 100 SMA, but I'm starting to think the inverse H&S is in play now. If that's the case, I still think we might need a dip lower to complete the shoulder before heading back up. But maybe Thursday's dip was all that was necessary.
The other thing that makes me think we might continue higher is the substantial gain of the small caps in proportion to the S&P today. The S-fund was much higher than the C-fund, and the R2K was almost twice as much. If I'm not mistaken, the small caps usually lead the large caps, so that ought to be viewed as a bullish sign I guess. I think before I capitulate and chase gains, I want to see price get above the 200 SMA and hold for a day.
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
S&P still has a ways to go before hitting the 100SMA, but it found support at the 200EMA, and has a bullish kangaroo tail at the end of a bull flag, which also happens to be making a nice shoulder for the inverted H&S. I might pull the trigger and re-enter stocks if I can buy back in below 1246 (price I sold at on 12/2).
On a side note, I see the charts I've pasted below live on.
I use the Market Data Center from WSJ online - just copy and paste them straight into here. Interesting that they continue to update ad infinitum. I guess that's cool.
On a side note, I see the charts I've pasted below live on.
I use the Market Data Center from WSJ online - just copy and paste them straight into here. Interesting that they continue to update ad infinitum. I guess that's cool. 
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
Re: Sensei's Account Talk
Didn't expect to awake to such losses. I thought I was going to be buying into a rally. The positive is that I sold most of my stocks on 12/2 when the S&P was at 1246, and today it closed at 1225. So I'm buying back in at a lower price. The 100SMA looks like good support at 1210. Both cheeks exposed, and fingers croxxed I don't get spanked.:blink:
Didn't expect to awake to such losses. I thought I was going to be buying into a rally. The positive is that I sold most of my stocks on 12/2 when the S&P was at 1246, and today it closed at 1225. So I'm buying back in at a lower price. The 100SMA looks like good support at 1210. Both cheeks exposed, and fingers croxxed I don't get spanked.:blink:
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
Re: Sensei's Account Talk
I got spanked, but I can't say I didn't expect it. Support held at the 100SMA, and we have kangaroo tails beneath each of the last three down days. It's hop or drop. Hope we hop.
I got spanked, but I can't say I didn't expect it. Support held at the 100SMA, and we have kangaroo tails beneath each of the last three down days. It's hop or drop. Hope we hop.
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
2 systems at once?
I'm looking for opinions, so feel free to chime in.
After a year of managing my TSP, I've managed to lose more money than if I had just bought and held the L2040, which is what I had done previously. I tried the Sentiment Survey for the first 8 months of this year, then made my own moves based on tracking the price at which I bought and sold. I've just recently made another poorly timed decision to buy in, and am now testing my patience by riding out the current pullback.
Anyway, what I'm getting at is that next year I'd like to try a different approach. I'm thinking of playing the Last Month Best Fund method, but am tempted to go back to following the Sentiment Survey. I know it has stunk, but it could be ready for a return to glory. I was wondering what people think about playing 2 systems at once. Like follow the LMBF with 50% of my money, and the SS with the other 50%. I thought about IFT limitations. LMBF only requires 1 (if any) a month, which leaves one more in case the SS issues a buy for a different fund. If the SS issues a sell, I can always move to G.
So the question is, is it wise to play 2 systems? Or smarter to stick to one?
I'm looking for opinions, so feel free to chime in.
After a year of managing my TSP, I've managed to lose more money than if I had just bought and held the L2040, which is what I had done previously. I tried the Sentiment Survey for the first 8 months of this year, then made my own moves based on tracking the price at which I bought and sold. I've just recently made another poorly timed decision to buy in, and am now testing my patience by riding out the current pullback.
Anyway, what I'm getting at is that next year I'd like to try a different approach. I'm thinking of playing the Last Month Best Fund method, but am tempted to go back to following the Sentiment Survey. I know it has stunk, but it could be ready for a return to glory. I was wondering what people think about playing 2 systems at once. Like follow the LMBF with 50% of my money, and the SS with the other 50%. I thought about IFT limitations. LMBF only requires 1 (if any) a month, which leaves one more in case the SS issues a buy for a different fund. If the SS issues a sell, I can always move to G.
So the question is, is it wise to play 2 systems? Or smarter to stick to one?
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
So if this is a manifestation of an inverse Head and Shoulders, what's the upside target? Between 1300-1320?
Curious to know what you think.
Curious to know what you think.
Still 25% in stocks, and 75% in G for now.
KevinD
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 41
Re: 2 systems at once?
I'm thinking that those 2 systems should become indicators used in the Sensei system. Tom doesn't use the Sentiment Survey as a system. He uses it as more of an indicator to help make IFT decisions.
What other things do you look at? Moving averages? Bollinger Bands? Seasonality? Give what ever indicators you use a weight and make decisions from there.
You might want to look up my returns before you take any advice from me...
So the question is, is it wise to play 2 systems? Or smarter to stick to one?
I'm thinking that those 2 systems should become indicators used in the Sensei system. Tom doesn't use the Sentiment Survey as a system. He uses it as more of an indicator to help make IFT decisions.
What other things do you look at? Moving averages? Bollinger Bands? Seasonality? Give what ever indicators you use a weight and make decisions from there.
You might want to look up my returns before you take any advice from me...
WorkFE
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 471
Re: 2 systems at once?
Just not the flavor in 2011 but looking back over time we know better.
Just not the flavor in 2011 but looking back over time we know better.
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
Re: 2 systems at once?
I hear you on using the SS as an indicator, not a system. I have serious doubts about its reliability as a contrarian indicator anymore, actually. What I've been doing recently is looking at the 100 and 200 day SMAs. We've been trading pretty dependably between those two for some time now. I've been selling when we get to the 200 SMA, and buying when we get to the 100 SMA. It's worked all right, but we'll eventually break out of that pattern. Then I'll have to look for whatever other pattern presents itself.
So, basically, I'd like to continue blazing a trail with my own trading decisions, but I don't trust myself to beat buy 'n hold at this point. Hell, some days I salivate over the F fund's return for the year, and ask myself why I don't just put all my money there and leave it alone. That's why I'd like to follow the LMBF method with half my money, to cover my butt in the event that I trade myself under the table again in 2012.
I guess I can answer my own question, really. Following 2 systems simultaneously takes away some of the risk, but also removes the potential of greater rewards. Kind of like diversifying a portfolio.
Thanks for the feedback!
I hear you on using the SS as an indicator, not a system. I have serious doubts about its reliability as a contrarian indicator anymore, actually. What I've been doing recently is looking at the 100 and 200 day SMAs. We've been trading pretty dependably between those two for some time now. I've been selling when we get to the 200 SMA, and buying when we get to the 100 SMA. It's worked all right, but we'll eventually break out of that pattern. Then I'll have to look for whatever other pattern presents itself.
So, basically, I'd like to continue blazing a trail with my own trading decisions, but I don't trust myself to beat buy 'n hold at this point. Hell, some days I salivate over the F fund's return for the year, and ask myself why I don't just put all my money there and leave it alone. That's why I'd like to follow the LMBF method with half my money, to cover my butt in the event that I trade myself under the table again in 2012.
I guess I can answer my own question, really. Following 2 systems simultaneously takes away some of the risk, but also removes the potential of greater rewards. Kind of like diversifying a portfolio.
Thanks for the feedback!
Bquat
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 598
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
Re: Sensei's Account Talk
We busted the 200 SMA today, but the test is whether it holds next week. May be time to start moving to G in increments. I'm finally getting my "W", and think the second leg up still has a little way to go. I don't wanna get burned though...
We busted the 200 SMA today, but the test is whether it holds next week. May be time to start moving to G in increments. I'm finally getting my "W", and think the second leg up still has a little way to go. I don't wanna get burned though...
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