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S Fund
- Thread starter Wheels
- Start date
fedgolfer
Well-known member
... if the s fund closes anywhere near 19.01 or +.36% it's topped out too in the short term. Anything north of that establishes a new trend. The trend lines are so steep though, that just one day of small movement extends that resistance line upward, probably somewhere 19.10 for tomorrow. I wish I had the cahones of pointman, will probably get defensive with the g-penny.
I agree with your reasoning. Today Im leaning strongly towards 100%G from 100%S.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
Plus, with not much on the econ calendar for tomorrow, technicals could lead the way.
Bingo... Nice call. The question now is when to jump back on. Its still well above its 20 SMA by ~1%. Well see. I think today will be another day to sit in G for me.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
... who knows?! This bull has strength. Looking to buy at around $15.37 for the Cfund and 18.70'ish ( 20 DMA) for the S. The strength of the I is impressive. But that would be too easy... the fund managers could throw it off the chart. We could easily get left in the dust.
ayla
Member
S fund price just dropped below its 20 day SMA. Also, there was a very large drop in the %k fast stochastic from over 90 down to 25. Means S fund is transitioning to a serious oversold position I think..
This is a new learning curve for me but from what I can tell, these are signs that things might start popping for the S fund soon. If we use history as the guide, it could take another drop in the stochastic before things start happening (but not necessarily, of course).
Starting maybe a couple days after these drops below the 20 day SMA and with the stochastic, looks like a good chance of a nice little run starting maybe on Weds or Thurs. Since this corresponds to the Santa rally, that is an extra reinforcement that this might happen.
Hopefully the VIX will behave during the run (if there is one). If VIX starts rising sharply, this could put a damper on things.
This is a new learning curve for me but from what I can tell, these are signs that things might start popping for the S fund soon. If we use history as the guide, it could take another drop in the stochastic before things start happening (but not necessarily, of course).
Starting maybe a couple days after these drops below the 20 day SMA and with the stochastic, looks like a good chance of a nice little run starting maybe on Weds or Thurs. Since this corresponds to the Santa rally, that is an extra reinforcement that this might happen.
Hopefully the VIX will behave during the run (if there is one). If VIX starts rising sharply, this could put a damper on things.
ayla
Member
Didn't notice it last night but the S fund is showing a huge increase in its RSI (14 day) - a 35% increase from 56 to 76. I don't show an increase in RSI for the S fund that is this big for one day even if I look back thru data starting from June 2005.
In other words, even the run-up and run-down in May/June of 2006 didn't cause this high of an increase (though there were a few high values then). Not sure what this means.
If one considered the big drop in yesterday's S fund price, could this be a healthy sign of "positive divergence" or not so healthy?
In other words, even the run-up and run-down in May/June of 2006 didn't cause this high of an increase (though there were a few high values then). Not sure what this means.
If one considered the big drop in yesterday's S fund price, could this be a healthy sign of "positive divergence" or not so healthy?
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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
The fast stochastic is not all the way down , but i do thinka little pop up is in order. Because of xmas!!
I do believe we will see a major pull back very soon , Good Luck To All!!
The fast stochastic is not all the way down , but i do thinka little pop up is in order. Because of xmas!!
I do believe we will see a major pull back very soon , Good Luck To All!!
ayla
Member
Yes, I see that the fast stochastic hasn't gone down to zero, According to my own spreadsheet, it went from 25 to 20 as of prices last night. Looking at recent historical activity for the S %k fast stochastic, I agree that it seems traditional for it to drop down to zero before any kind of breakout (accompanied by a corresponding fast rise of this stochastic).
But because of the Santa rally (maybe), that drop to zero may be circumvented. Seems like the Santa Rally (or something) has affected other indicators such as the VIX peak that was forming. Looks like the VIX has fizzled (for now) which is a good thing for the S.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Valuation levels continue to keep us cautious on small caps...
http://www.strategasrp.com/pdf/isr061218.pdf
http://www.strategasrp.com/pdf/isr061218.pdf
ayla
Member
If (big IF) technical analysis (using my spreadsheet which doesn't use intraday values) tells us anything here, the stochastics for the S fund have set up nicely for a little bump tomorrow with followup bumps on subsequent days. I say that because the last time these particular indicators were set up like this (approximately) was Oct 3rd.
What I'm looking at is
1. the %k fast stochastic noted day before yesterday drop of over 30, (similar to Oct 2nd)
2. also the s fund is still below its 20 day SMA (as it was yesterday and day before) and it was on Oct 2nd and 3rd
3. the RSI is in the right range (dropped from 54 to 50 tonight - still showing relative oversold position) similar to October 2nd and 3rd when it dropped from 55 to 44.
4. healthy drop in the %d slow stochastic shown in tonights data in addition to the fact that it has made a transition from above 80 to below 80 (significant point) in the past few days similar to what happened in the transition to below 80 from Oct 2nd to Oct 3rd.
All of these indicators were generally in the same position last on Oct 3rd which was followed by a nice little bump on Oct 4th and subsequent days. It could be sort of a signature. I'm hoping.
I haven't had much luck with MACD values being useful but MACD trend (as I understand it) are about the same for then and now.
There are of course many other indicators - I haven't learned yet - that's not to say they agree with this.
And there WAS what seems to me a fairly major difference with the VIX indicator. From Oct 2nd to the 3rd, there was a 2% drop in the VIX and this week from Oct 19 to Oct 20th, there was a 2% rise (closing price, that is). Could make a big difference.
Crossing my fingers --
50%i and 50%s -
What I'm looking at is
1. the %k fast stochastic noted day before yesterday drop of over 30, (similar to Oct 2nd)
2. also the s fund is still below its 20 day SMA (as it was yesterday and day before) and it was on Oct 2nd and 3rd
3. the RSI is in the right range (dropped from 54 to 50 tonight - still showing relative oversold position) similar to October 2nd and 3rd when it dropped from 55 to 44.
4. healthy drop in the %d slow stochastic shown in tonights data in addition to the fact that it has made a transition from above 80 to below 80 (significant point) in the past few days similar to what happened in the transition to below 80 from Oct 2nd to Oct 3rd.
All of these indicators were generally in the same position last on Oct 3rd which was followed by a nice little bump on Oct 4th and subsequent days. It could be sort of a signature. I'm hoping.
I haven't had much luck with MACD values being useful but MACD trend (as I understand it) are about the same for then and now.
There are of course many other indicators - I haven't learned yet - that's not to say they agree with this.
And there WAS what seems to me a fairly major difference with the VIX indicator. From Oct 2nd to the 3rd, there was a 2% drop in the VIX and this week from Oct 19 to Oct 20th, there was a 2% rise (closing price, that is). Could make a big difference.
Crossing my fingers --
50%i and 50%s -
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Propstrike
Member
Good analysis. Hope it pays out for you.
James48843
Well-known member
Early indications- "S" fund up .12 cents as of noon
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