S Fund

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Does it make sense to go strong with the S Fund for next Jan. 2 & 3 because the share price is down (to close to 12/14 price) and has a good chance to come up or just too risky to tell? C and F funds seems due for an increase as well if one follows the same strategy. The first two days of 2006 were very good so ...

:worried: I'm new to posting so please be gentle.
 
Tech indicators slow/fast stoch, PSAR and price channel overlays leaving decent room for January effect in the small/mid caps. Anyone have any thoughts on the pros and cons of seasonality/Jan effect extending this bull run just a little longer?
 
Looks like we'll get that P&F sell - or did the late little bounce keep it in the X's?

Thanks.
 
James,
I have to admit to being lazy and not having taken the time to study P&F charts at stockcharts.com, Perhaps you can help me to gain a better understanding of how they work? For instance, you indicated that if the "S" fund drops by a full pecent today (yesterday), that would be substantial, as it breaks a point and figure chart that has been on an upswing for a long time, and signals a reversal for the first time since August. My confusion has to do with looking at the EMW closing price at 621.56 (-1.11%). But when I look at the P&F chart you posted, I see EMW at 621.56 (in red) but I don't understand how to interpret the sell signal or what the sell signal is. Is the color red in itself a sell signal provided by stocharts. Thanks in advance.:)

James48843 said:
If the "S" fund drops by a full percent today, that will be substantial, as it breaks a point and figure chart that has been on the upswing for a long time, and signals a reversal for the first time since August.

See http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$EMW,P

I'm thinking much more downside ahead if this stays down this far at the close today.
Click to expand...
 
sponsor said:
James,
My confusion has to do with looking at the EMW closing price at 621.56 (-1.11%). But when I look at the P&F chart you posted, I see EMW at 621.56 (in red) but I don't understand how to interpret the sell signal or what the sell signal is. Is the color red in itself a sell signal provided by stocharts. Thanks in advance.:)
Click to expand...

I'm not exaclty sure myself- having just started studying the point and figure charts myself over the last couple months.

But what I understand it is that once the stock price falls three full units below the top X on the chart, it should kick back into the "O" column, and head down. That was achieved yesteday, although it may be three full units plus the top unit itself, or four units below the top. The last couple of reversals it showed a third of the way to the top, plus three units. This time it may be a little different, because of the extreme distance it climbed from August to now (18 units). Remember, time is not a unit counted in P&F charts, only direction and height.

If I understand correctly what should show up, then the reverse "O" will appear if the "S" fund closes below 620 or so, and it will show up with four "O"s when it appears.

That would be the signal that there is much more downside ahead, as it will not reverse again until it moves downward half the distance, or upward above the current peak. If it moves downward, then it's going to be a long way down. If, on the other hand, the next movement is upward, then just the four "O"s will be all that is left.

If it DOES reverse and start showing "O's, then the floor for a reverse of the reversal (to get back to an "X",) would be at or below either the 580 or 590 level, I'm not sure exactly how it works out. I do know that it will represent a substaintial pullback, and will be a good buy signal at the other end when it shifts back to the "X" mode.

Unfortunately, I was out of the office Friday morning, and I find myself 50% in "S:" and 50% in "I" at the moment.

Win a few, loose a few. It's all in the long race, not the daily heats.

Good thing I have 12 to 14 years till retirement.
 
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I think this is an excellent explanation which for me is no doubt the first time that someone explains P&F in understandable terms. Thank you. I will appreciate your future posting of this TA indicator, because you appear to have a good grasp of it, and this will most likely be of help also to other members.

James48843 said:
I'm not exaclty sure myself- having just started studying the point and figure charts myself over the last couple months.

But what I understand it is that once the stock price falls three full units below the top X on the chart, it should kick back into the "O" column, and head down. That was achieved yesteday, although it may be three full units plus the top unit itself, or four units below the top. The last couple of reversals it showed a third of the way to the top, plus three units. This time it may be a little different, because of the extreme distance it climbed from August to now (18 units). Remember, time is not a unit counted in P&F charts, only direction and height.

If I understand correctly what should show up, then the reverse "O" will appear if the "S" fund closes below 620 or so, and it will show up with four "O"s when it appears.

That would be the signal that there is much more downside ahead, as it will not reverse again until it moves downward half the distance, or upward above the current peak. If it moves downward, then it's going to be a long way down. If, on the other hand, the next movement is upward, then just the four "O"s will be all that is left.

If it DOES reverse and start showing "O's, then the floor for a reverse of the reversal (to get back to an "X",) would be at or below either the 580 or 590 level, I'm not sure exactly how it works out. I do know that it will represent a substaintial pullback, and will be a good buy signal at the other end when it shifts back to the "X" mode.

Unfortunately, I was out of the office Friday morning, and I find myself 50% in "S:" and 50% in "I" at the moment.

Win a few, loose a few. It's all in the long race, not the daily heats.

Good thing I have 12 to 14 years till retirement.
Click to expand...
 
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Man, the "S" fund is really stinkin' -1.58% at last look. Something doesn't look right with this number?:confused:
 
tsptalk said:
Looks like we'll get that P&F sell - or did the late little bounce keep it in the X's?

Thanks.
Click to expand...


We got the "O" move posted this morning.

See
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$EMW,P

The "O" is significant.

And I'm screwed again- I was in a meeting, and then had a noon deadline on a work item, and was not able to bial out of "S" before the noon deadline.

if the point and figure charts work as advertised, then all stocks look like they are about to head down big time.
 
We are in the process of putting in an energy bottom, which means when it's over that sector will power the small caps to more new all-time highs, at least through the 1st half of this year. No bear yet.
 
James48843 said:
And I'm screwed again- I was in a meeting, and then had a noon deadline on a work item, and was not able to bial out of "S" before the noon deadline.
Click to expand...

It's risky business trying to make decisions before noon, because you never know what will happen. It's sometimes easier to make your decision the night prior, so that you don't get caught up in the fluff of each day.
 
Back to "X's", yes.

Three "X"s.

There are lots of examples of three "X"s then going to "O"s as the next move. But will this be like that, or is this just a new begining of more "X"s?

Dang- and here i am sitting mostly in "F" today. Just 10% each in I, C, and S.

I was on the road the last two days and didn't get a chance to look at the markets- but if tomorrow shows strength, I may very well move back to the "S". The sentiment survey is also looking like higher ahead to me. (contrarian).

We'll see what the morning brings.

Win a few, lose a few. 11-13 years till retirement. Still time to make it up.
 
Looks like the R2K is bouncing around in a channel between 775 and 798 It closed at 794.26 kind of high in the channel. Risky for Tuesday.
 
If the GDP runs anywhere above trend of 3% - the small caps will do wonders. Get ready for a throw over or solid penetration of the overhead resistance you mentioned. No one can hold this market back - it's hot across the spectrum and going to get hotter. Pension fund managers are bulging with cash they have to put to work - and they can run over me in the process. I'm staying in front of the train, again.
 
When are the GDP numbers coming out? or, can we extrapolate the possible GDP numbers from the econ. numbers that will be coming out next week?

Birchtree said:
If the GDP runs anywhere above trend of 3% - the small caps will do wonders. Get ready for a throw over or solid penetration of the overhead resistance you mentioned. No one can hold this market back - it's hot across the spectrum and going to get hotter. Pension fund managers are bulging with cash they have to put to work - and they can run over me in the process. I'm staying in front of the train, again.
Click to expand...
 
sponsor said:
When are the GDP numbers coming out? or, can we extrapolate the possible GDP numbers from the econ. numbers that will be coming out next week?
Click to expand...
Sponsor Looks like the calendar says Jan.31st at 8.30am Looks like GDP is sitting at 3 %
 
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