S Fund

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I tried to attach a pdf of my short term s-fund chart which shows a handle forming the last 10 trading days... the cup forming from May through Oct...if today is down for the S it will be a pretty symetrical handle and probably a good buying op for a possible breakout. Conversely, indicators are overbought... slow & fast stochs are above 80%; also on top of price channel... listen to the indicators or the chart trend?! It's been my experience that the indicators are always overbought in this juncture in a cup and handle.

i'm leaning towards not trying to perfectly time it and allocate funds across C/S/I... probably favoring the C&S over I agree/disagree?
 
Today is a good buying opportunity and tomorrow will also be a good buying opportunity. Next month will also be a good buying opportunity. If you go light on the I fund you will become an aberrant - profit will help you atone.
 
I believe that both of you are correct. It could be either a double top or the formation of a cup and handle. I don't have the answer, but this seems to be a good example of why technical analysis (TA) is both an art and a science. You have to consider other factors with TA, which include fundamental analysis, seasonality, overbought/oversold market conditions, and a host of issues that make trading such an interesting endeavor. (I mean, interesting for us, but boring or voodoo for people who don't have a passion to learn this activity).
 
i think stablizing rates, getting Dems in house and senate could be good for small/midcaps in the macro picture... i'm leaning towards cup and handle... of course the handle can take many forms and play many tricks on us grasshoppers.
 
Birchtree said:
Over the past decade, small-caps have tended to perform well during the last two months of the year. I'm holding my OTCFX fund until Spring and will then continue to peel off shares for redistribution. There are still too many hedge funds and small speculators that are currently short - this is positive from a contrarian perspective. Buy now pay later.
Click to expand...

Posted by Birchtree- 10/2/06

Great call Birch, you are the Man...Snort
 
James48843 said:
And it should continue to do great.

Take a look at the numbers of advance issues vs. declines, and in up volume vs. down volume, especialy on NASDAQ:

http://finance.yahoo.com/advances

This tells me (gut feeling) that the rally is still in full motion upwards.

I do not expect a change in the trend until the the advances and declines merge, and the "new highs" and "new lows" meet. At this rate, I THINK we still have much more upside potential in the "S", and that is going to be better in my crystal ball than the other options.
Click to expand...


Good call...

http://www.tspmoney.com/prev/index3.html
 
It's a beautiful day to be in the S fund. Don't have to worry about the Barclay's brother tweaking around with the share price. :)
 
Profits at S&P 500 companies will grow about 10% in the fourth quarter. That would be modest compared with about 20% growth in the third quarter but enough to extend a record streak of double-digit growth to 18 quarters.

This year's simultaneous rallies in both big-cap and small cap indexes suggest that much of the money being used to buy stocks lately is cash that had been sitting on the sidelines, rather than money rotating from investment in one sector to another. With all the new money coming into the market, there's room for chunks of it to go to different strategies at once. People are willing to take these risky gambles in small-cap stocks. But they're also looking for safer, dividend-paying large caps. Keep an eye on falling housing prices. Financial companies, including many regional banks, which make up a third of the indexes may see big declines in fourth quarter profits. Money will eventual rotate out of small caps IMHO.
 
vectorman said:
:D

The one thing I've learned from watching those talking heads on CNBC is that they tell you what is going on after the fact. They are the ones who have bought international stock back in the middle of June. Now that its up big they want the amateur investor to run to internationals and push then alittle higher while at the same time the big boys are selling and buying small caps. In about two months you'll hear how great small caps are and that is the place to be, after the fact.;)
Click to expand...

I posted this 8/18/06, well its been alittle more than two months, but after this nice climb in small caps, I'm now hearing the talking heads say buy small caps because December is a good month to be in small caps. Yesterday I had a co-worker who usually doesn't follow the market tell me to go 100% S fund. I also notice you don't hear the correction word as much as before. Now its just, " we are looking for a 3-4% pullback, and then higher." MMMMMMMM .
 
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... if S closes in the 18.55 range (I think dwcp already hit the support line on the intraday charts when it was around -.80'ish), today or monday will prove good support buys on a support line that gave good buys on 11/2 and 10/3. ^VIX is also very close to screming "buy now!"
 
Moving into a seasonally good if not exceptional period for the S Fund re January effect.

Luck to All.

Dell
 
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