S-fund Challenge! Guesses

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Sure, maybe even include the gains/losses for our long/short positions in the S-fund. You can handle the tallying if you wish.

I'll start on it tomorrow...expect to be finished with it (and make it [and/or the actual formulas] available to you/others) by/near market close so that all/anyone can keep tally as well.

 

[Cactus]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

4/1 Up.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

I'll start on it tomorrow...expect to be finished with it (and make it [and/or the actual formulas] available to you/others) by/near market close so that all/anyone can keep tally as well.

Cool! I might not be back in an hour, so I'd post my guess right now for tomorrow. Pattern 6/red-red-grn (WP: C 52.7%, S 54.4%, I 53.8%). Let me know the best time to place our guesses...market hours? There are plenty of opportunities, so it's not that big a deal if we miss the deadline. If we don't make the cut-off time, then just try the next day.

Tuesday/Apr. 01: down.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Cool! I might not be back in an hour, so I'd post my guess right now for tomorrow. Pattern 6/red-red-grn (WP: C 52.7%, S 54.4%, I 53.8%). Let me know the best time to place our guesses...market hours? There are plenty of opportunities, so it's not that big a deal if we miss the deadline. If we don't make the cut-off time, then just try the next day.

Tuesday/Apr. 01: down.

market hours is fine with me.

4-1-14: down

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

While waiting for a better spreadsheet tally...

Result (unofficial): C +0.79%; S +1.55%; I +0.61%.

Tally update (Tuesday/Apr. 01, 2014):

userque (1/1) 100%. Long (1/1). Short (0/0). Guess: down.
EbbCharts (2/4) 50%. Long (0/0). Short (2/4). Guess: down.
RealMoneyIssues (1/2) 50%. Long (1/2). Short (0/0). Guess: cash.
S-fund (2/4) 50%. Long (2/4). Short (N/A). Guess: up.
Cactus (1/3) 33%. Long (0/0). Short (1/3). Guess: up.
CrabClaw (0/1) 0%. Long (0/1). Short (0/0). Guess: cash.
MrJohnRoss (0/1) 0%. Long (0/1). Short (0/0). Guess: cash.
nnuut (0/1) 0%. Long (0/1). Short (0/0). Guess: cash.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

While waiting for a better spreadsheet tally...

it may arrive late tonight/early mornin' but it's a comin'...:embarrest:

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

View attachment 27904

Now that the spreadsheet is complete, future results will be quick and easy.

The sheet is first sorted by the percentage correct; then by the total number of guesses (greatest-to-least, top-to-bottom); then alphabetically.

The calculations are the same ones ebbnflow has previously displayed. However, I can add additional calculations if desired.

Please let me know of any errors/corrections or other ways to possibly improve the sheet.

If anyone wants a copy of the actual sheet, I will upload it somewhere.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

my NN guesses the close to be 1009.18 for 4-1-14

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Spreadsheet tally looks great, userque! You asked me before if the ebbcharts system goes to cash and I said only if it equals its 7-yr. S&P 500 gauge (54.9%). I've been thinking and decided that in order to maximize gains and improve its win percentage, the system will have to go short only if a pattern's win percentage for the S-fund hits 53% or less. My last three guesses would have been in cash if that was the case, so I'm going with this new strategy. En garde!

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Spreadsheet tally looks great, userque! You asked me before if the ebbcharts system goes to cash and I said only if it equals its 7-yr. S&P 500 gauge (54.9%). I've been thinking and decided that in order to maximize gains and improve its win percentage, the system will have to go short only if a pattern's win percentage for the S-fund hits 53% or less. My last three guesses would have been in cash if that was the case, so I'm going with this new strategy. En garde!

Thanks. Good luck with the updated strategy. Oh, and, uh...be on your guard as well!

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Thanks. Somehow, your avatar reminds of a fencer (French).

Is it possible to include the gains/losses also, or would that be too much work. We don't need it, though (optional).

New ebbcharts system: Long > S&P 500 gauge (54.9%); Short <= 53%; Cash > 53% and <= 54.9%.

New strategy makes more sense since anything greater than 53% is bullish.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Thanks. Somehow, your avatar reminds of a fencer (French).

Is it possible to include the gains/losses also, or would that be too much work. We don't need it, though (optional).

New ebbcharts system: Long > S&P 500 gauge (54.9%); Short <= 53%; Cash > 53% and <= 54.9%.

New strategy makes more sense since anything greater than 53% is bullish.

Though it has (at least?) a few 'meanings,' I believe the avatar was made 'famous' by the movie, "V for Vendetta." I recommend it if you haven't seen it: V for Vendetta (2005) - IMDb

Including gains/losses is a great idea and well worth the effort. I'll make it happen.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Woohoo!

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Thanks. Somehow, your avatar reminds of a fencer (French).

Is it possible to include the gains/losses also, or would that be too much work. We don't need it, though (optional).

New ebbcharts system: Long > S&P 500 gauge (54.9%); Short <= 53%; Cash > 53% and <= 54.9%.

New strategy makes more sense since anything greater than 53% is bullish.

According to our new strategy:

Patterns that are long (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (55.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (60.1%).
Patterns that are short (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.2%).
Patterns that are cash (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (54.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.2%).

7-yr. ebbtally chart (win percentages):

Last 5 trading patterns were 8, 2, 6, 4, and 6. Last 3 guesses would have been in cash according to our new strategy.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

The ebbcharts have a pattern 8/red-grn-red (WP: C 55.4%, S 52.2%, I 56.7%) tomorrow, so the prediction is for a down day in the S-fund (52.2% < 53%). Pattern 8's signature says that it's weak in the S-fund.

Wednesday/Apr. 02: S-fund down.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

4-2-14 down...1010.61

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

View attachment 27916

I have posted this updated chart for yesterday for completeness/record-keeping's sake:cheesy:

Today's chart and an explanation of the spreadsheet cells will soon follow.

 

[Cactus]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

4/2 Up.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

stand by

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

4/2 Up.

I see you Cactus and will update the chart. Nice call on today's action by the way