S-fund Challenge! Guesses

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Tomorrow will be either up or down or neither

Ok, no guess means cash (won't count in your tally).

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

"Ladies, you're both pretty...":laugh:

Talking winning percentage by itself is like discussing the space-time continuum and leaving out time.

One can win 60% of the time, but lose twice as much cash per trade as they win and still be an overall loser.

Relatedly, one can win only 40% of the time, but win twice as much cash per trade as they lose, and still be an overall winner.

So one can't meaningfully say where a "break-even" point is without knowing more (than just the 'winning' percentage) about the betting strategy.

It gets deeper, but I'll simply mention the well-known phrase:

Correlation is not necessarily evidence of causation.

Anyway,

Why not just pull out the measuring tape and see how they measure up:laugh::

How do the returns of the 'timer' system compare to those of the 'chart' system? Are the returns even made available?

We see websites forecasting sentiment for each trading day. This challenge is just that, no doubling down on bad bets, no claims of winning big hitting only 10% of trades. It is what it is.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Mar. 26, 2014 (unofficial): C -0.62%; S -1.42%; I +0.81% (watch out for -FV).

Tally: S-fund (0/1 ), Cactus (0/0), CrabClaw (0/1), EbbCharts (1/1), JTH (1/1), nnuut (0/1), RealMoneyIssues (0/1).

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

We have pattern 2/grn-grn-red (WP: C 55.4%, S 52.1%, I 53.2%) on the ebbcharts for Mar. 27, 2014. So, according to the 7-yr. ebbtally chart, there is selling pressure in the S and I-fund. The C-fund may fare better than the other funds.

Mar. 27, 2014: S-fund down.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

We see websites forecasting sentiment for each trading day. This challenge is just that, no doubling down on bad bets, no claims of winning big hitting only 10% of trades. It is what it is.

I know it's just a contest/game, but fwiw:

Even within the constraints of your contest, one doesn't have to always trade...as you said, one can be in cash. With that, imagine a system that can not only predict 'up' or 'down,' but also how much up or down.

With such a system, one can avoid days predicted to have small movements...in effect: Doubling-Down.

However, unlike real trading, your contest doesn't seem to take into account the change in price (one good trade offsetting several bad trades), only whether the price is higher or lower. Even so, the above system would still be helpful in a contest such as yours in that a strong up day prediction can also likely be considered a 'more probable' up day and vice versa.

So a strategy applicable to your contest could simply be to only 'guess' when the system predicts big movements up or down.

If this contest shows signs of staying around, maybe I'll rig-up just such a NN

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

I know it's just a contest/game, but fwiw:

Even within the constraints of your contest, one doesn't have to always trade...as you said, one can be in cash. With that, imagine a system that can not only predict 'up' or 'down,' but also how much up or down.

With such a system, one can avoid days predicted to have small movements...in effect: Doubling-Down.

However, unlike real trading, your contest doesn't seem to take into account the change in price (one good trade offsetting several bad trades), only whether the price is higher or lower. Even so, the above system would still be helpful in a contest such as yours in that a strong up day prediction can also likely be considered a 'more probable' up day and vice versa.

So a strategy applicable to your contest could simply be to only 'guess' when the system predicts big movements up or down.

If this contest shows signs of staying around, maybe I'll rig-up just such a NN

I can guarantee you, if the market wins 54% or 55% (just like what the S&P 500 had done since 2007), you don't need to know how much the market will gain on any given day. A win percentage of 53% may not be enough because you lose more on down days, though. I think you're getting too greedy if a great win percentage is not enough for you.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

I can guarantee you, if the market wins 54% or 55% (just like what the S&P 500 had done since 2007), you don't need to know how much the market will gain on any given day. A win percentage of 53% may not be enough because you lose more on down days, though. I think you're getting too greedy if a great win percentage is not enough for you.

Just to be clear:

So, S&P 500 did 54-55% winning. (I assume by winning you mean 'up' days.)...and this is a "great win percentage."

So, you are saying one can just buy and hold the S&P to receive the 54-55% great winning; and anything better than that is being greedy?

So...just buy and hold is what you are saying?

So...why do you need special charts to simply buy and hold to receive the great 54-55% winning??

I've got to be missing something. What is it?

:blink:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

It's extremely difficult to determine a one day probability of an up or down day, but I'm expecting a bit of a relief rally tomorrow for the battered S Fund. I say UP. (But I also think it will be a short lived rally).

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Just to be clear:

So, S&P 500 did 54-55% winning. (I assume by winning you mean 'up' days.)...and this is a "great win percentage."

So, you are saying one can just buy and hold the S&P to receive the 54-55% great winning; and anything better than that is being greedy?

So...just buy and hold is what you are saying?

So...why do you need special charts to simply buy and hold to receive the great 54-55% winning??

I've got to be missing something. What is it?

:blink:

Yep, you missed a lot. The point of this exercise is to see if we can get a better win percentage than the S&P 500's 54.8%. That's not being greedy. Being greedy is wanting to know how much a given day would gain (mission impossible). That's just asking too much. I assure you (again), if you get a good win percentage, everything else will fall into place.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

It's extremely difficult to determine a one day probability of an up or down day, but I'm expecting a bit of a relief rally tomorrow for the battered S Fund. I say UP. (But I also think it will be a short lived rally).

I agree. The shorter the trading time-frame, the greater the noise/randomness. However, for contest purposes--competing against each other, everyone deals with the same noise/randomness...so it drops from the equation. Thus, luck and skill rule at that point. Over a certain amount of time, luck should also drop from the equation.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Being greedy is wanting to know how much a given day would gain (mission impossible). That's just asking too much.

I assume you realize that we have to be referring to 'knowing' things within a 'winning' and reasonable degree of accuracy; and that knowing how much up or down exactly, consistently, is certainly impossible.

That said, the ability to know stuff to a reasonable degree of certainty and consistency is a matter of perspective and opinion. Some may argue that knowing the direction of the next market day (consistently) is impossible as well. They could also argue that that would be "asking too much."

Simply not being able to do something (within reason) is not evidence that doing it is impossible.

I'll get started on a 'system' to play your contest and predict the next close and/or the gain/loss.

btw, I found the past performance numbers for the 'timer' system; do you have any such numbers available for your 'chart' system?

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Tally for Mar. 27, 2014 (S-fund):

EbbCharts (1/1). WP: 100%. Guess: down.
JTH (1/1). WP: 100%. Guess: cash.
Cactus (0/0). WP: 0%. Guess: up.
CrabClaw (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: cash.
MrJohnRoss (0/0). WP: 0%. Guess: up.
nnuut (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: cash.
RealMoneyIssues (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: cash.
S-fund (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: up.

No guess = cash.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

I assume you realize that we have to be referring to 'knowing' things within a 'winning' and reasonable degree of accuracy; and that knowing how much up or down exactly, consistently, is certainly impossible.

That said, the ability to know stuff to a reasonable degree of certainty and consistency is a matter of perspective and opinion. Some may argue that knowing the direction of the next market day (consistently) is impossible as well. They could also argue that that would be "asking too much."

Simply not being able to do something (within reason) is not evidence that doing it is impossible.

I'll get started on a 'system' to play your contest and predict the next close and/or the gain/loss.

btw, I found the past performance numbers for the 'timer' system; do you have any such numbers available for your 'chart' system?

What would you consider consistent? On the 7-yr. ebbtally chart, bullish red pattern 5/red-red-red (our most bullish red pattern) has a win percentage of 61% in the C, 60% in the S, and 58% in the I-fund. That beats the S&P 500's win percentage of 54.8%. I'll upload the other charts once updated.

7-yr. ebbtally chart (win percentages):

Year-to-year chart:

7-yr. compounded result (2007-2014):

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

What would you consider consistent? On the 7-yr. ebbtally chart, bullish red pattern 5/red-red-red (our most bullish red pattern) has a win percentage of 61% in the C, 60% in the S, and 58% in the I-fund. That beats the S&P 500's win percentage of 54.8%. I'll upload the other charts once updated.

7-yr. ebbtally chart (win percentages):

[snipped]

Nice!

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

I knew this thread was going to turn into another advertisement thread.............. Thanks ebb, but I don't need it.

 

[JTH]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

I'm respectfully withdrawing from this thread and walking away from the table with a 100% winning ratio. While this might be a fun experiment, this is no way based on the 2-IFT reality we live with and there's plenty of reason to believe the motivations here are suspect.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

I assume you realize that we have to be referring to 'knowing' things within a 'winning' and reasonable degree of accuracy; and that knowing how much up or down exactly, consistently, is certainly impossible.

That said, the ability to know stuff to a reasonable degree of certainty and consistency is a matter of perspective and opinion. Some may argue that knowing the direction of the next market day (consistently) is impossible as well. They could also argue that that would be "asking too much."

Simply not being able to do something (within reason) is not evidence that doing it is impossible.

I'll get started on a 'system' to play your contest and predict the next close and/or the gain/loss.

btw, I found the past performance numbers for the 'timer' system; do you have any such numbers available for your 'chart' system?

I knew this thread was going to turn into another advertisement thread.............. Thanks ebb, but I don't need it.

Intrepid, you think I should have been rude to userque after he requested past performance numbers using my charts? Why act so petty and insecure?

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Tomorrow will be either up or down or neither

I had a sneaking suspicion here that you're the one with the ulterior motive for posting this, but silly me, I gave you the benefit of the doubt. I'm really disappointed in you, JTH.

I'm respectfully withdrawing from this thread and walking away from the table with a 100% winning ratio. While this might be a fun experiment, this is no way based on the 2-IFT reality we live with and there's plenty of reason to believe the motivations here are suspect.

JTH, some folks (you included) give day-to-day opinions on TNA, NUGT, or any other stocks, which also has nothing to do with our 2-IFT reality. Don't you think being able to predict how the market will do (up or down) day to day could help folks entering stocks or ETFs?

I can understand if you feel uneasy or intimidated going against the ebbcharts, but it's all in good fun. And, it also providies transparency to our so-called "systems" at the same time.

 

[JTH]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

I had a sneaking suspicion here that you're the one with the ulterior motive for posting this, but silly me, I gave you the benefit of the doubt. I'm really disappointed in you, JTH.

JTH, some folks (you included) give day-to-day opinions on TNA, NUGT, or any other stocks, which also has nothing to do with our 2-IFT reality. Don't you think being able to predict how the market will do (up or down) day to day could help folks entering stocks or ETFs?

I can understand if you feel uneasy or intimidated going against the ebbcharts, but it's all in good fun. And, it also providies transparency to our so-called "systems" at the same time.

I was going to leave this alone but since you didn't, I'll elaborate for the benefit of all those involved.

1) Where are you on the Auto Tracker this year, you want to play an S-Fund game that suites your system but can't fit within the confines of TSP's Auto Tracker?

2) Your intimidating system failed to beat the S&P 500 in 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 & 2009. It took you 5 losing years before you stopped taking peoples money and losing it for them, am I intimidated by that? No.

3) I see you have you're own website/forum where you can now advocate how great your system is (hence the reason I question your motivation for starting this thread.)

It's great that you have a system that professes higher probabilities than a random walk on the market (and I do believe you believe you have such a system) but if you can't translate this into money in the pocket, then I fail to see the point. While I do have several beta systems, the vast majority of what I post is data that can easily be understood & validated by anyone on this forum. The system you've been hocking is only understood by you, that's like buying a car and having to hire someone to drive it for you.

It is what it is, I'm done with this thread...Jason

 

[ravensfan]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

The moment a person forms a theory, his imagination sees, in every object, only the traits which favor that theory.
-Thomas Jefferson to Charles Thompson 1787