Running out of Steam?

We had choppy trade today in a relatively tight range, but all three TSP stock funds managed to post modest to moderate gains. Even the FOMC minutes were met with a relative mute response.

Tomorrow morning we have four econmic reports being released; Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, PPI, and Core PPI. The market is due for some consolidation in the very least and these reports may provide that excuse.

Here's today's charts:

NAMO.jpg

NAMO and NYMO managed to eke out more upside, but they really look extended at this point and suggest continued choppy action at the least, but more than likely some downside action is what we'll see very soon.

NAHL.jpg

NAHL and NYHL continue to inch higher here.

TRIN.jpg

TRIN and TRINQ are close to their 6 day EMA and just like NAMO and NYMO, suggest some selling pressure soon.

BPCOMPQ.jpg

More upside for BPCOMPQ today, which suggests the trend is up for now.

2010 Fund Allocation ~ Top 50 Chart 3.jpg

Our Top 50 are evenly split between stocks and cash. It's not likely the sideline folks are going to be willing to buy into this market after recent gains, but any significant selling pressure may make dip buyers out of them. Other folks in this group have already used their IFTs so new allocations may be limited at this point.

In spite of my decision to go to cash yesterday I am not bearish, but merely ensuring I take advantage of a good trade without getting greedy. The SS suggest that in spite of any short term selling pressure, the system itself might remain on a buy for a little while yet. If I had another IFT I'd probably buy the next significant dip; if internals don't deteriorate that is.

So the system remains on a buy with all 7 signals in buy territory, but looking toppy for NAMO and NYMO. TRIN and TRINQ also appear to suggest some downside action very soon. But if it materializes it may not be enough to flip the system to a sell, so if you're holding a stock position keep this in mind. BPCOMPQ makes me think any selling pressure will be short lived and relatively shallow.

Those are my thoughts for this evening. Happy trading.
 
Sideways movement is on the table for tomorrow.....HP Earnings versus CPI will even things out a bit.....we will be red but I'm showing less than .34% but then again....CPI may help keep it up!
 
Frixxxx;bt1138 said:
Sideways movement is on the table for tomorrow.....HP Earnings versus CPI will even things out a bit.....we will be red but I'm showing less than .34% but then again....CPI may help keep it up!

On the sentiment front things are getting a bit bulled up again. But sentiment can be fickle and can change day-to-day. But that's why I'm not bearish, only cautious short term (now through next week).

As I write this, Trader's Talk sentiment survey is 54% bulls vs 15% bears. It's very early yet and more votes will be cast by tomorrow morning, but that's still pretty bullish.
 
Not every follow through day has led to a bull run, but every bull run has started with a follow through day. I see where the insiders are buying their shares again - that should help.
 
Birchtree;bt1140 said:
Not every follow through day has led to a bull run, but every bull run has started with a follow through day. I see where the insiders are buying their shares again - that should help.

Indicators are turning up again in an obvious way. It's options expiration week too, so I suspect we'll see some games being played between now and the end of next week.
 
Thanks for your guidance. Waiting for your next post regarding the Trader's Talk sentiment survey.
 
I really thought volatility would keep numbers down....whoa...there is a LOT of volume!!!!
 
Frixxxx;bt1143 said:
I really thought volatility would keep numbers down....whoa...there is a LOT of volume!!!!

They're doing a pretty good job of holding up the market so far. The overall picture is mixed though, and I'm seeing a few of our board members remarking about this. Even the SS suggests short term selling (NAMO/NYMO), but BPCOMPQ suggests the trend is turned back up.
 
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