Rolo's Account Talk

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Thanks Rolo for posting what your thinking! I have been F for the last two days. Why? No reason really, just thought the chart looked okay!
 
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I hear ya...sometimes that's all it takes. AGG (F Fund) looks a lot like the 'Advance]'Advance Block':

http://hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bearish%20Advance%20Block.htm


It may not be able to break that resistance ~103. Or, it could pop right past it the more people go to bonds from stocks. (but will they?)


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DWCP (S Fund): three days of spinning tops, 494-495 range; the goal is to break 505. Bears and Bulls are stalemated. Who will concede first? Yes, it's anybody's game. Let's just hope that optimism wins.

The question to myself is, "How long will I wait for that 505+?" I need to decide an escape route, sell rules. 473 would definitely kill my optimism. My cost basis is ~460 ($13.58/share) so I would still have a small profit. I might want to go a little higher to 481 as a sell point. Given the two-day latency, I should probably stick with 487 as a "technical breakdown" point.

So, if DWCP falls below 487, I will sell my S Fund holdings. If the following day is higher, I will cancel the order, in case it is just a momentary dip, otherwise, I'll sell and wait for a confirmation (again).

Things are a little different when you actually consider your cost-basis; it is a definite way to lock in profit (even if it is a meager one). It also keeps you acutely aware of what your fund is doing and where you stand. I think I will stick with this and not forget about it in frustration like I did in 2004. Of course, I sorta had other stuff going on, heh.



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EFV (I Fund): Well I see a skewed cup-with-handle. Skewed is OK given currency rates. Sound good? I dunno, I just made it up; is it a valid supposition?

The handle looks good with today being a little up. Like DWCP, we see a narrow trading range. Someone poke a pin in the buck bubble, huh?

Sell rules...hmmmmm. My cost-basis sucks because I tinkered in December when I should have left well enough alone.I think occasionally I trade for the sake of trading and not for any sound reason, that I 'must do something', that, Heaven forbid, I keep the same holdings for six months! So, Ima knock that off, it waters down my gains and puts that Avril Lavigne song in my head: "Why you have to go and make things so complicated...." (that is an awesome CD, BTW, and yes, I do own it :^, in the PT, in the slot next to White Zombie :s).

Anyway cost-basis, sell rules, blah blah, its easier to wait for saraho to tell me what to do, heh. However, since she is not in the I Fund yet (what is she waiting for?buck to top and reverse, I assume). I bought at the top at 160 and EFV is 157 now. "If only I can break even." is not a valid strategy. That is thinking on emotion and we never, ever make decisions based on an emotion, so I am not waiting until EFV hits 160 again. If it drops below its most recent low of 153, I will be worried. That, however, may make for a skewed W, so it may not be a bad thing. 150 works for me.



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SP500 (C Fund): blah. I really cannot figure out why so many people default to this guy. meh, I have always been the dissident, no reason to change now. I only have 3% in this, so I am not picking it apart. It's a mini-S Fund...wanting to have S Fund returns when it grows up. If I sell S, I will sell C. C still seems to have just about as much risk with a lesser return than S.
 
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good grief. here is the 'Advance Block'URL in pastable form:

Code:
http://hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bearish%20Advance%20Block.htm
 
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Cool! Now your showing somebody what to lookout for neat! I like your strategy and I bet it works too! I have a similar strategy but fly mainly by the seat of my pants. I hear a lot of people state not to sell at a loss. I have sold at a loss and one thing I have learned there is two ways to make money. Value and the amount of stocks. If your in an uptrend play value, if your in a downtrend get out play G or F or play amount of stocks.My theory is if yourI stock isdownand is holding today, and C & S went down it brings up an opportunity. You can buy that stock and gain share, now when theI fund goes down again tomorrowwhich I think it will and the C&S hold orgo down again but if I goes further, buy it back.
 
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I've found myself changing strategies mid-execution and mixing strategies. THAT doesn't work and makes for "doing a whole lot, but not accomplishing anything". I had a hard time keeping everything straight, but given my mental condition at the time, no wonder. But now, I've had a pretty good mental CTRL-ALT-DEL, heh heh, and having a fresh approach.

One thing that is definitely out is trading mutual funds (to include TSP funds) like stocks. I really watered down my gains in 2003 (I made 75%, but I should have made around 100% and could have made 150%...after all, two of my mutual funds made over 300% that year.)

So right now, I am sticking with "the trend is your friend" and will go with what's trendy, heh. Basically, buy-and-hold (sorta) while avoiding dips.

I am open to trading systems and would like to experiment with that at some point, possibly with ETFs in my brokerage account where you can buy on margin and sell short. I would like to be able to program my computer to do it. If a similar system would work with TSP, then I would apply it there, too. I'm all for automation! I am keeping an eye on SystemTrader to see how he does with his gig.


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I should have mentioned my other holdings...I usually do, but I haven't tinkered with them much. I am holding off on investing new money atm for two reasons: the market is iffy, and I need to furnish and decorate my new house. That is also where the holdings in my brokerage account went: lush, plush carpet and bootiful tile. Not all investments are strictly for retirement, some of mine were for fun stuff.

IRA holdings(most $ to least):

  1. RSPFX
  2. OSMCX
  3. QSCCX
  4. QRACX
  5. PSPFX
  6. SCOVX
  7. RSNRX
  8. RSCOX
QRACX, PSPFX, and RSNRX are natural resources funds. I will exchange those for RSPFX or RSCOX, depending on how the market turns. I intend to add/exchange into international funds and keep domestic stocks as value stocks.

I am definitely open to suggestions, particularly since I haven't been mutual fund shopping yet. Except for Oppenheimer (locked into it until I roll it), all funds are NTF and no-load.
 
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Interesting: http://hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bullish%20Doji%20Star.htm

[align=center]
doji_star.gif
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[align=left]Hopefully DWCP will have a Morning Star Friday: http://hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bullish%20Morning%20Doji%20Star.htm[/align]
[align=center]
morning_doji_star.gif
[/align]
[align=left]As far as I am concerned, the bulls and bears are still struggling and it is still anybody's game. It doesn't look exactly stupendous for the bulls, though.[/align]
[align=left]Need for a change has been nagging me. I dunno if it is for the sake of change or if the cold, dark regions of my psyche are trying to tell me something. I feel like I should have done this a couple weeks ago, so it's about time I did. Hey, if a notion lingers that long, it must be correct, yes?[/align]
[align=left]I'll admit, F looked tempting, thanks to fellow TSPtalkers showing me that F isn't totally useless and I shan't overlook it. G...nah. I'll go with more of a sure thing: the I Fund. EFV peeked a little above the flat trading range high today and RSI, MACD, and DMI look good. It's at the top of the Bollinger Band, so maybe it'll pull back a bit and I can get more shares by the time my IFT goes through. This two-day lag makes it much more difficult for me for some reason.[/align]
[align=left]C seems to be more resillient, so maybe what they are saying about large-caps moving ahead is happening. The nice thing about my screaming my beliefs is that, if I am wrong, the correction is much more noticable and sticks out, so I should be less likely to repeat the mistake. Pride can be costly (as much as the price of stupidity at times) and I am not interested in purchasing any of it. :)[/align]
[align=left]IFT Feb 10, 10:20 AM MST:[/align]
[align=left]From:
C FUND 3.01%
S FUND 49.70%
I FUND47.29%[/align]
[align=left]To:
C FUND10%
S FUND 20%
I FUND 70%[/align]
[align=left]Which should not take effect until Monday...damned government workers! :D[/align]
 
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Oy..mkay...just read Tom's Market Comments...must....keep...up.....on....that.

Changed IFT to:
C FUND20%
S FUND 10%
I FUND 70%

for more C over S.
 
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_____Original Message_____
I have a question concerning your IRA holdings. Do you do IFTs in betweenall of them? How? Do you close out an account and then rollover everything to a new one or do you leave a dollar in that account so that you can rollover back the money if the fund starts going up again.



Roth IRA holdings:

  1. RSPFX
  2. PSPFX
  3. RSNRX
  4. RSCOX
Three of these are of the same family, RS Investments. They have the killer Internet/tech funds. I do exchanges between them, but I found out recently that there is a limit on them and I cannot do any exchanges until June 2005. guh. I can still, however, sell, wait for settlement, and buy another RS fund--basically, a drawn-out exchange. They Must Think We're Idiots.

I really like RSPFX (RS Partners) and glad I held onto some portion of it since it became closed while I had it. I can still add to its position, which I didn't know I could do that with a closed fund.

SEP IRA:

  • SCOVX
It's too small to hassle splitting between funds. This is the Strong family of funds, Small Cap Value,one of my favourites. I've hidden in their bond fund during a downturn.

The Oppenheimer crap is the g/f's Roth IRA and I'm limited to only Oppenheimer funds. I selected the funds to replace the crap some financial shark chose. It is doing much better, in spite of the huuuuuge hit QRACX (Real Asset) took in December. Only a portion of that can be explained by distributions since my distributions < drop in NAV, which = WTF?
 
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hahahaooly crap that worked out well. EFV has a new high. DWCP and SP500 were expected to have a slight digesting of Friday's gains for sure, but they aren't giving up Friday's gains. 100% equities indeed.

The I Fund has been nagging me and thanks to saraho's pimpin' it, I increased my position in it. Lemme answer a PM (anybody can post in here, BTW, this is what it is for).



_____Original Message_____
I see you moved heavy into the I Fund. Can I pick your brain a bit? Are you there because you feel the USD will decline or the US market will decline or both? How far down do you think? Reason I ask is I am new to watching the currency market and have no experiance in what extremes it can go thru.
Watching currency is new to me too! My main source of buck-watching: saraho. I will add it to my list of tickers that I watch as soon as I figure out how to get BigCharts.com to see it. (anyone? Bueller?)

I think the international markets have a better upside than the US markets, hence the trade. Rather than avoiding risk in the G Fund, I'll do it in the I Fund. In spite of the buck's rally, it is doing well and doing better than domestic markets.

It's like the eye doctor.

Which is better, S or C? Tough one, about the same, C looks like it may be gaining very soon like people say.

Which is better, S/C or I? I for sure.

Which is better, F or G? haha, G certainly, F has too little reward for its risk. Some got bit by the Advance Block pattern...it looked like it was gonna break out, but, nope.

Which is better, I or G? I for sure, appears to have lots of upside potential with mitigated risk inherent to its intrinsic diversity.

G is The Option Of Last Resort, when all else fails, almost like a Doomsday Device, heh. (enter tsptorture's avatar)

The Plan: hold onto I for quite a while, prolly whole year the way ppl are talking. Hold C & S until we hit a new low, then it'll likely be 100% I.

Thank you to all who post information and insight here...my choices are a culmination of everyone's talk blended with my intangible gut feeling.




_____Original Message_____
Now get back to unpacking those boxes!:l
ehehehe...I got my network back together! Yaaay! Now I have an Office (just mine and g/f's computers, nice and neat, you can actually see the furniture)and a Back Office (servers and all techie stuff in the storage room that I just carpeted yesterday)...schweeet. Now I need to fix that share price updater...but...I have still more boxes to get to, but getting there!
 
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Glad to here the I fund is working for you Rolo, it has done okay for me too! I noticed the little picture on the side has been shedding skin like a lizard. Your computer got a bug or what? I now see why I got lumped as a bozo! Just kidding I hope I fund keeps going for you.
 
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Whooo-hooOOooo! This is a killer cover of Oasis' Song 2. (or was it Blink 182 who did that?)

I Fund, EFV: We have liftoff! We have cleared the launch pad! A new all-time high at 161, which puts us right back into the trend starting 2004-08-13 and set 2004-09-27. Two more points up may be a pivot point. So....what's my exit strategy? hmmMMMmmm...I dunno, heh. If it sails up to 190 (+20%), I should prolly take the money and run for a while. Other than that, I dunno...ideas anyone?

S Fund, DWCP: lookin' good, but still below its trendline, it has to break 500.I see a1% gain day soon perhaps...would definitely show bullish tendencies short-term.

C Fund, SP500: just a hair behind S Fund's gains...so it really must be catching up. We'll see if I should have stuck with my original IFT of 20S/10C. 1218 would definitly signal "bull run" to me. Hey, check this out:
 
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Rolo wrote:
So....what's my exit strategy? hmmMMMmmm...I dunno, heh. Other than that, I dunno...ideas anyone?
Exit strategy: Try a trailing stop. Mine is 1-2% or 20 for the S&P.

Oxygen mask in one hand, parachute in other!
 
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Spaf wrote:
Oxygen mask in one hand, parachute in other!
haha I like that! ...goes with your avatar, too.

+20%/-10% is my default for those small-cap stocks O mine, so I should probably pick something smaller, more mutual-fund-like. Those high slopes appear to always correct with horizontal, trading range motion until it gets back onto the same steady course upwards. That is what I was illustrating with the bottom trendline starting with the unleashing of the bulls in March '03. Interesting, huh? (is to me 'cos its new, heh) Methinks its time to break out the geometry. (Stand by, Mike! hehe)

I see what (tekno? ST?) was sayin' about using the $SOX as a leading indicator...it's not Absolut..er absolute and there is a feel to it.
 
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Oh no! I musta jinxed it....SP500 gave up most of its gains and DWCP gave up all of them so far today...the bears are b----slappin' the bulls! Some serious resistance there, ~1208 and 495 respectively.

SP500 looks too much like an Advance Block:
advance_block.gif
If we were in a long uptrend, I would sell today. Instead, I will wait to see what tomorrow (and the rest of today) brings with my finger on the button. DWCP really could go either way. I may be 100% I by COB tomorrow.
 
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I like your thoughts about the I fund. I have been sitting 50 G and 50 I for a little while waiting for something to happen but ..... ......still waiting so I elected to go 30 G and 70 I earlier today.
 
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Why I went 75I/25C today...

S Fund: Small caps really do seem to be lagging behind larger caps now. Those who were saying it all last year were off on their timing just like I was off by saying it wouldn't be until the end of this year. However, this is called 'speculating', isn't it? Speculations aside, the facts are that the shift is occuring now. Thank you to those who posted those facts. (That index table posted today was very handy!)

I figure I'd sell my 10% S at the resistance line. Will it break past it? There are better opportunities and the chart reminds me of that Advance Block too much.

I see I Fund's drop today as a buying opportunity. I exchanged half of my S for a bit more I.

C Fund: Something was nipping at me yesterday and I finally saw what it was this morning: Rising Three Methods/Bullish Mat Hold:

[align=center]R3M:
rising_three_methods.gif
Mat Hold:
mat_hold.gif
[/align]
If you combine Feb 7th & 8th (which you can do), you have these patterns which indicate a pause in an uptrend and to look for higher prices. Also note how the shadows have changed from being above the body to being below the body, indicating upward price action. This is why I am not too concerned about today's Harami:
harami.gif
 
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How are you tracking the I fund?

I see you say EFV

which one







$EFV.EU
iSHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND(E

$EFV.X
iSHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND(I

$EFV.NV
iSHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND(N

$EFV.SO
iSHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND(S

$EFV.TC
iSHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND(T

I have been using EFA do you know which is the most realistic one for us to follow?
 
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MMMM? Marco Rolo says S looks bleak and Saraho says Friday not so good looking. Tom's indicators got him on the side lines. Thursday may be the day I make a move! I may just jump into that I fund if it goes down the few more pennies that I think it might go. Will ride S into tomorrow and see if the bronc is blowed out. C is not out of the guestion and F is not either, G is a no play. Greenspin did his show and there was a bomb rumor today andmarket still up some. Rolo has his candles out, and C leadingS does not make any sense to me. That Sthat islagging may make a kick, I hope so.
 
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cowboy wrote:
MMMM? Marco Rolo says S looks bleak
Marco RoNO says, eeeeeeeeEEEEESSSSSSSssssssspthththhthtblaaaaahwellitsovernow. heh

cowboy wrote:
Tom's indicators got him on the side lines.
...with a black eye from that last whipsaw! :D


cowboy wrote:
I may just jump into that I fund if it goes down the few more pennies that I think it might go.

You may want to even if it goes up.

cowboy wrote:
C leadingS does not make any sense to me.

It is a part of the cycle. I remember reading it. I can't remember exactly why but it did make sense. heh.


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D-Dog: I just use [EFV] Ishares Trust Index (INDEX)

I don't really know what the differences are in all the EFV flavours. We should probably look to see which one mimics S more, EFA or EFV. (EFA has the ETF's management fees, I assume, and maybe currency conversion?)
]
 
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LOL! I 'll see tomorrow what the markets says. I may go I fund again. I haven't seen C lead anything, but do think it is weakerfund of the three.
 
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