imported post
I hear ya...sometimes that's all it takes.
AGG (F Fund) looks a lot like the
'Advance]'Advance Block':
http://hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bearish%20Advance%20Block.htm
It may not be able to break that resistance ~103. Or, it could pop right past it the more people go to bonds from stocks. (but will they?)
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DWCP (S Fund): three days of spinning tops, 494-495 range; the goal is to break 505. Bears and Bulls are stalemated. Who will concede first? Yes, it's anybody's game. Let's just hope that optimism wins.
The question to myself is, "How long will I wait for that 505+?" I need to decide an escape route, sell rules. 473 would definitely kill my optimism. My cost basis is ~460 ($13.58/share) so I would still have a small profit. I might want to go a little higher to 481 as a sell point. Given the two-day latency, I should probably stick with 487 as a "technical breakdown" point.
So, if
DWCP falls below
487, I will sell my S Fund holdings. If the following day is higher, I will cancel the order, in case it is just a momentary dip, otherwise, I'll sell and wait for a confirmation (again).
Things are a little different when you actually consider your cost-basis; it is a definite way to lock in profit (even if it is a meager one). It also keeps you acutely aware of what your fund is doing and where you stand. I think I will stick with this and not forget about it in frustration like I did in 2004. Of course, I sorta had other stuff going on, heh.
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EFV (I Fund): Well I see a skewed cup-with-handle. Skewed is OK given currency rates. Sound good? I dunno, I just made it up; is it a valid supposition?
The handle looks good with today being a little up. Like DWCP, we see a narrow trading range. Someone poke a pin in the buck bubble, huh?
Sell rules...hmmmmm. My cost-basis sucks because I tinkered in December when I should have left well enough alone.I think occasionally I trade for the sake of trading and not for any sound reason, that I 'must do something', that, Heaven forbid, I keep the same holdings for six months! So, Ima knock that off, it waters down my gains and puts that Avril Lavigne song in my head:
"Why you have to go and make things so complicated...." (that is an awesome CD, BTW, and yes, I do own it :^, in the PT, in the slot next to White Zombie :s).
Anyway cost-basis, sell rules, blah blah, its easier to wait for saraho to tell me what to do, heh. However, since she is not in the I Fund yet (what is she waiting for?buck to top and reverse, I assume). I bought at the top at 160 and
EFV is 157 now.
"If only I can break even." is not a valid strategy. That is thinking on emotion and we never, ever make decisions based on an emotion, so I am not waiting until
EFV hits 160 again. If it drops below its most recent low of 153, I will be worried. That, however, may make for a skewed
W, so it may not be a bad thing.
150 works for me.
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SP500 (C Fund): blah. I really cannot figure out why so many people default to this guy. meh, I have always been the dissident, no reason to change now. I only have 3% in this, so I am not picking it apart. It's a mini-S Fund...wanting to have S Fund returns when it grows up. If I sell S, I will sell C. C still seems to have just about as much risk with a lesser return than S.