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Rolo's Account Talk
- Thread starter Rolo
- Start date
imported post
Timer wrote:
hehehe...was that said like Shaggy from Scooby-Doo?
I am VERY well, thank you! (In fact, I am more well than my portfolio has been...bwaha!)
Finally the Market seems to be turning around...a few months later than I (we?) expected.
Currently, I am contemplating whether small caps will outperform large caps over the next month to a year. Had I been frequenting this board, I would probably know that, hehe.
Would a quick hop from some S to C, effective COB Monday be beneficial?
I've reallocated 2/3 of my g/f's Roth yesterday to international and small cap. The remaining third is still in large cap and am contemplating moving it to natural resources and small cap, but I think I will hold off until the end of this month, based on überTom's market comments.
Our combined portfolios have 40% large caps currently (I was surprised, I didn't think I had that much in large.)
Thoughts?
Timer wrote:
hehehe...was that said like Shaggy from Scooby-Doo?
I am VERY well, thank you! (In fact, I am more well than my portfolio has been...bwaha!)
Finally the Market seems to be turning around...a few months later than I (we?) expected.
Currently, I am contemplating whether small caps will outperform large caps over the next month to a year. Had I been frequenting this board, I would probably know that, hehe.
Would a quick hop from some S to C, effective COB Monday be beneficial?
I've reallocated 2/3 of my g/f's Roth yesterday to international and small cap. The remaining third is still in large cap and am contemplating moving it to natural resources and small cap, but I think I will hold off until the end of this month, based on überTom's market comments.
Our combined portfolios have 40% large caps currently (I was surprised, I didn't think I had that much in large.)
Thoughts?
imported post
Hey Rolo! Glad to hearall is well.
The small cap / large cap question might be answered with the January Effect.
[url]http://www.stockhouse.com/commodities/story.asp?storyID=17394[/url]
It basically says that small caps consistently beat large caps in January, but I've noticed this has crept into December as I believe people try to get a jump on it before it happens which causes it it to happen sooner.
So you're managing your girlfriend's money now, huh? Must be love. Good for you.
Tom
Hey Rolo! Glad to hearall is well.
The small cap / large cap question might be answered with the January Effect.
[url]http://www.stockhouse.com/commodities/story.asp?storyID=17394[/url]
It basically says that small caps consistently beat large caps in January, but I've noticed this has crept into December as I believe people try to get a jump on it before it happens which causes it it to happen sooner.
So you're managing your girlfriend's money now, huh? Must be love. Good for you.
Tom
imported post
tsptalk wrote:
I dumped the two lame funds her depression-era thinking financial planner chose and set it 40% international small cap, 30% small cap value, 30% natural resources.
Mine is 38% natural resources, 12% contrarian, 50% RS Partners (35% large, 50% small, 10% international). My SEP is small cap value.
tsptalk wrote:
Yeah, we're serious...it's awesome! She is 'the one'.So you're managing your girlfriend's money now, huh? Must be love. Good for you.
I dumped the two lame funds her depression-era thinking financial planner chose and set it 40% international small cap, 30% small cap value, 30% natural resources.
Mine is 38% natural resources, 12% contrarian, 50% RS Partners (35% large, 50% small, 10% international). My SEP is small cap value.
imported post
Timer wrote:
There is a dollar minimum on stocks which can be bought on margin.
Timer wrote:
That means the stock is able to me bought on margin, or borrowed money. If you had a margin account with $3000 in it, you can buy $6000 or more worth of stock. Of course you pay interest on that borrowed $3000.
There is a dollar minimum on stocks which can be bought on margin.
imported post
80S/20C
I fund is losing its luster, puttering out (look at 3/13/39-day moving averages), so I will replace it with some C. (Thanks, Tom, for the market comments that got me privvy to the idea...I like it.)
S still looks good. eeeeEEEEEeeeeEEEeeeeSSSSSSSSSSSS!
and I increased my %age in it. You really can't beat small-caps.
C looks good, looks a little extended and due for a small pullback and I hope my IFT happens to take place on a dip in C, spurt in I. (One thing I hate is this percentage allocation rather than just buying/selling shares:"Exchange all I for C", for example. Meh...government work! hehe)
[line]
Stocks: I still have SIRI, XMSR, and GOOG.
[line]
I haven't been around here much because I have been shopping for a house. wOw. Much less supply than I thought...however...with much searching I found one that fits the bill VERY nicely (and then some). It will be finished late next month:
80S/20C
I fund is losing its luster, puttering out (look at 3/13/39-day moving averages), so I will replace it with some C. (Thanks, Tom, for the market comments that got me privvy to the idea...I like it.)
S still looks good. eeeeEEEEEeeeeEEEeeeeSSSSSSSSSSSS!
and I increased my %age in it. You really can't beat small-caps.C looks good, looks a little extended and due for a small pullback and I hope my IFT happens to take place on a dip in C, spurt in I. (One thing I hate is this percentage allocation rather than just buying/selling shares:"Exchange all I for C", for example. Meh...government work! hehe)
[line]
Stocks: I still have SIRI, XMSR, and GOOG.
[line]
I haven't been around here much because I have been shopping for a house. wOw. Much less supply than I thought...however...with much searching I found one that fits the bill VERY nicely (and then some). It will be finished late next month:
o
2004 kicked my ass.
I didn't run away crying.
True, I had a mental breakdown, but I did NOT run away or cry.
I learned much and will continue to learn and refine my process, to become wise, and to keep turning profits in any climate, and finally, to worry less about setbacks and to have fun and to enjoy personal accomplishments.
True, I beat the C Fund/S&P 500 in 2004, but that is not my standard; I haven't been trading the C Fund. The S Fund's 18% and I Fund's 20% gain are my benchmark. I fell short. Way short. Oops!
I must find a better way. I must take the emotion out of trading and I must be more objective. Yes, objectivity. Systems. Tools measuring probablities.
As I sit here, reading posts from the TSPtalk community and looking at my Best-Charts plots of ^DWCP, ^SPX, and EFA, trying to decide if I should make an allocation change, I remember, "Ah! I have one! I have a tool that is completely objective! It's been staring at me in the face all this time!"
The Magic 8-Ball. I've mentioned it, but I've never used it. Time to change! Objectivity!
As I have contemplated changing my allocation from 3C/48S/49I to 65I/35S, I ask the 8-ball and it speaks:
Should I increase my I Fund position? Most likely.
Should I buy some G? Try this one later.
Wow! The I Fund will continue its uptrend after a little correction and I should go to G soon for the Market consolidation! How insightful!
One thing I have learned in my ass-kicking is that, most of the time,the more I monkey with things, the more I watered down my returns. Therefore, I am holding off on this for a few days to see what the market does to look for confirmation.
However, Inow have my benchmark: not the S&P 500, but the Magic 8-ball! So, I will be standing pat for now and the Magic 8-ball account will put in an IFT for COB tomorrow: 65I/35S.
I didn't run away crying.
True, I had a mental breakdown, but I did NOT run away or cry.
I learned much and will continue to learn and refine my process, to become wise, and to keep turning profits in any climate, and finally, to worry less about setbacks and to have fun and to enjoy personal accomplishments.
True, I beat the C Fund/S&P 500 in 2004, but that is not my standard; I haven't been trading the C Fund. The S Fund's 18% and I Fund's 20% gain are my benchmark. I fell short. Way short. Oops!
I must find a better way. I must take the emotion out of trading and I must be more objective. Yes, objectivity. Systems. Tools measuring probablities.
As I sit here, reading posts from the TSPtalk community and looking at my Best-Charts plots of ^DWCP, ^SPX, and EFA, trying to decide if I should make an allocation change, I remember, "Ah! I have one! I have a tool that is completely objective! It's been staring at me in the face all this time!"
The Magic 8-Ball. I've mentioned it, but I've never used it. Time to change! Objectivity!
As I have contemplated changing my allocation from 3C/48S/49I to 65I/35S, I ask the 8-ball and it speaks:
Should I increase my I Fund position? Most likely.
Should I buy some G? Try this one later.
Wow! The I Fund will continue its uptrend after a little correction and I should go to G soon for the Market consolidation! How insightful!
One thing I have learned in my ass-kicking is that, most of the time,the more I monkey with things, the more I watered down my returns. Therefore, I am holding off on this for a few days to see what the market does to look for confirmation.
However, Inow have my benchmark: not the S&P 500, but the Magic 8-ball! So, I will be standing pat for now and the Magic 8-ball account will put in an IFT for COB tomorrow: 65I/35S.
imported post
mkay...I should prolly make some market comments of some sort rather than just comments.
I still like S and will therefore comment on it. Tom likes C, saraho I, nobody likes F.
I've been hoping for a W ever since that three day pummeling...I mean drop. So far, we have it. I am hoping the right side clears the left side, the former high. So far, so good, with a little dramatic pause today and maybe tomorrow.
Some were saying "HAHA! or AAAAHH!" at today's lack of a rally. That's OK, red Mondays aren't a bad thing since they frequently lead to way green Fridays, indicative of a bull market (week closes higher than it opens).
So, my outlook on the S fund is "hold and wait and see" since I am 50% S and will not forfeit my shares unless I have a clear reason to. A clear reason is a confirmed trend reversal and not speculation.
I am also 47% I Fund. Dollar rally. Yuk. "They say" it should end soon. I'm still holding.
The remaining 3% is in C. I figure I would dollar-cost-average into the C Fund and perhaps by the time I have enough in C worth paying attention to, the large-cap/small-cap leading role may switch. I don't think it will be within the next 6-12 months, though. On what do I base that? My ass, really, and that money is still cheapcheapcheap.
recap: if the W breaks down, I'm outta C and S and I may add to I while it is cheap. I have been considering doing that anyway. The Magic 8-Ball said I should.
mkay...I should prolly make some market comments of some sort rather than just comments.
I still like S and will therefore comment on it. Tom likes C, saraho I, nobody likes F.
I've been hoping for a W ever since that three day pummeling...I mean drop. So far, we have it. I am hoping the right side clears the left side, the former high. So far, so good, with a little dramatic pause today and maybe tomorrow.
Some were saying "HAHA! or AAAAHH!" at today's lack of a rally. That's OK, red Mondays aren't a bad thing since they frequently lead to way green Fridays, indicative of a bull market (week closes higher than it opens).
So, my outlook on the S fund is "hold and wait and see" since I am 50% S and will not forfeit my shares unless I have a clear reason to. A clear reason is a confirmed trend reversal and not speculation.
I am also 47% I Fund. Dollar rally. Yuk. "They say" it should end soon. I'm still holding.
The remaining 3% is in C. I figure I would dollar-cost-average into the C Fund and perhaps by the time I have enough in C worth paying attention to, the large-cap/small-cap leading role may switch. I don't think it will be within the next 6-12 months, though. On what do I base that? My ass, really, and that money is still cheapcheapcheap.
recap: if the W breaks down, I'm outta C and S and I may add to I while it is cheap. I have been considering doing that anyway. The Magic 8-Ball said I should.
G
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That new woman must not be "working" out for ya.
That new woman must not be "working" out for ya.
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