Rogue's Account Talk

[Rogue]

Submitted this afternoon, for Monday.
G - 10
F - 10
C - 34
S - 35
I - 11

 

[Rogue]

SS says "buy S."
Another horrible week, everything tanked. Hearing a lot of "since 2008...it's 2008 all over again...etc."
Buying some fear here, and buying some "F" which means I'm a little pessimistic actually.

 

[Rogue]

So, my IFT (submitted Friday afternoon) obviously didn't take effect this morning, but will tomorrow.
Given the huge declines today, this IFT is exactly what I wanted...namely to follow the Sentiment Survey (signals "buy S") by essentially moving 20% of my $$ from G fund into C and F, 10% each. C fund seems to be undervalued right now, and I'm not moving any out of S because the afeared folks are all moving out of S type investments right now.

Buying fear, buying low, following contrarian indicators, and staying the course. It's like betting on a Flush draw on the flop, and following up with a continuation bet on the turn without any help from that card. Well, maybe it's not really like that but I felt it was time for a holdem analogy in here.

 

[burrocrat]

So, my IFT (submitted Friday afternoon) obviously didn't take effect this morning, but will tomorrow.
Given the huge declines today, this IFT is exactly what I wanted...namely to follow the Sentiment Survey (signals "buy S") by essentially moving 20% of my $$ from G fund into C and F, 10% each. C fund seems to be undervalued right now, and I'm not moving any out of S because the afeared folks are all moving out of S type investments right now.

Buying fear, buying low, following contrarian indicators, and staying the course. It's like betting on a Flush draw on the flop, and following up with a continuation bet on the turn without any help from that card. Well, maybe it's not really like that but I felt it was time for a holdem analogy in here.

What suit you looking for, got two shots at it anyway.

 

[Rogue]

Clubs man, clubs.

OK, just made a new IFT, and hopefully linked my tracker and account talk.

New breakdown
C: 75
S: 20
I: 5

SSS said "buy C" last week and "hold C" this week (bear mkt rules) so I'm upping my %age in C.
Buckle up, it's a bumpy year.

 

[Rogue]

SSS say's "sell" and "G fund."
I just IFT'd to:

G: 50
F: 15
C: 35
S: 0
I: 0

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 09/30/2011 is 2.15%.

Yeooouuwwwwch!
Summer doldrums indeed. Here comes the holiday season bump though, I'll be making a move back to more C/S sometime in the next few weeks.

 

[Rogue]

Where'd that monkey with the darts go?


Just for reference:

This year so far:
F fund: 5.84%
C fund: 3.8%
G fund: 2.14%
S fund: -0.22%
I fund: -2.26%

 

[Rogue]

Somehow I missed an IFT in this list.

On 9/18 I IFT'd to:

G:25
F:5
C:40
S:25
I:5

Then today:

G:50
F:15
C:35
S:0
I:0

 

[Rogue]

I think on 10/28 instead of an IFT I changed by "contribution allocation."

Today's IFT, in prep for December bump:
G: 30
F: 10
C: 40
S: 20


Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 11/30/2011 is 8.36%.
Autotracker shows me @ 5.27% through 11 months in 2012.
AT rank #145

< Monkey and a dartboard.

 

[Rogue]

This is the year of the Sentiment Survey!

Finished 2012 at 6.18 % according to tracker.According to tsp site...Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 12/31/2011 is 3.52%. Outperformed all funds except F.

So, time to shuffle.

New IFT just before noon...
G: 20
F: 0
C: 20
S: 50
I: 10

 

[Rogue]

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 01/31/2012 is 6.19%.

Autotracker says YTD return is 7.42%.


Hmmm...Sentiment Survey says go 100% S.

 

[Rogue]

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 01/31/2012 is 6.19%

Autotracker YTD = 7.60%

 

[Mcqlives]

Putting it all on sentiment survey?!?!...And I thought I like roulette

 

[Rogue]

Mcglives,
I'm not putting it all on the SSS.
I'm 50% in S, the rest spread between G,C, and I.
See last IFT on 1/12.

 

[Rogue]

Move this PM...for Thursday morning:

G: 30%
C: 30%
S: 40%

 

[Rogue]

#194 on the AT....9.86%

 

[Rogue]

A little out of date,

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 02/29/2012 is 6.7%.

 

[Rogue]

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 02/29/2012 is 6.7%.

Which really just means "through February."
9.94% on the AT (rank #196) so far in 2012.

Time to pull back a bit for the summer slump.

Moving from this:
G: 30%
C: 30%
S: 40%

To this:

G: 45%
C: 30%
S: 25%

 

[Rogue]

Can't stand it...contrarian move today...buying some S to take effect Monday.
Aligned with SSS.
Yes, buying in May because of a dip in prices. Hope I'm buying value/fear here, that's my intention.
Takes some guts to get hit one day/week and turn around to push more into riskier fund to buy low.
Chasing losses? Not the intention and hopefully not the same outcome.

Moving from this:
G: 45%
C: 30%
S:25%

To this:
G: 20%
C: 20%
S: 60%

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 04/30/2012 is 4.55%.
8.87% on Autotracker, Rank #185.

 

[Rogue]

IFT just now to:
25% C Fund
75% S Fund

#227 on the autotracker @ 4.64%
PIP still 4.55% since it's still May.