Rogue's Account Talk

[Rogue]

YEOOOWWWCH, man!
Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 05/31/2012 is 0.06%.
#420 on the AT @ 1.35%....seems to me that it should be negative since I've lost thousands in the past few weeks.
I must've missed updating this as I'm now:
G fund: 25%
C fund: 50%
S fund: 25%

 

[Rogue]

Just IFT'd this morning.
Put some in F fund (means I’m very pessimistic about the rest of the summer, and I think that, at $15/share it is still a bit undervalued), increased G a little more, and try to wait until December-ish to ramp up C and S again, just before the bump I expect in mid Dec. Contrarians say “buy S now.” Not sure I can follow this time, it’s been pretty volatile this year.


New distribution:

G fund 40%
F fund 20%
C fund 20%
S fund 20%

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 07/31/2012 is 5.59%.

According to the Autotracker on tsptalk.com, I have made 8.59% this year, ranked #233.
Lots of the "smart money," that is those who are kicking butt right now at least, are heavy in F.

Either way, I’m beating the G fund, which has made 0.94% this year.
If I just put it all in C fund and let it ride, C fund has made 13.39% this year!


NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE - The Information in this message is provided for entertainment, education and informational purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. The Information contained in or provided from or through this message is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice. The Information in this message and provided from or through this message is general in nature and is not specific to you the Reader or anyone else. YOU SHOULD NOT MAKE ANY DECISION, FINANCIAL, INVESTMENTS, TRADING OR OTHERWISE, BASED ON ANY OF THE INFORMATION PRESENTED ON THIS MESSAGE WITHOUT UNDERTAKING INDEPENDENT DUE DILIGENCE AND CONSULTATION WITH A PROFESSIONAL BROKER OR COMPETENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR. You understand that you are using any and all Information available on or through this forum AT YOUR OWN RISK.
RISK STATEMENT - The trading of stocks, futures, commodities, index futures or any other securities has potential rewards, and it also has potential risks involved. Trading may not be suitable for everyone. Anyone wishing to invest should seek his or her own independent financial or professional advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

 

[Rogue]

According to the AT, I’m beating the Sentiment Survey System, which is a contrarian indicator, “market timing” strategy with a pretty good track record.
Me = 8.59%
SSS = 8.2%

This week's sign of the apocalypse...I'm ahead of 3 folks who are very good at this, and who seem to know much much more about investing than I do, each with entirely different approaches to this market. No easy conclusions here, other than this is a hard time to do well, but obviously there ARE opportunities.


birchtree = 8.54%; Dist: 20% C, 80% I
skypilot = 8.26%; Dist: 100% F
wwwtractor = 8.04%; Dist: 50% S, 50% I

 

[Rogue]

Well, at least I kept some money in C & S and caught the bump.

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 08/31/2012 is 11.52%.
(Your PIP is posted by the 3rd business day of each month.)

#267 on the AT, +11.13% ytd.

Contrarian indicators are signalling "buy."
I'm probably chasing (late), but I'm pulling some from G & F funds to put toward C & S.

Last IFT: Current Distribution:
G: 40% G: 38.92%
F: 20% F: 19.27%
C: 20% C: 20.26%
S: 20% S: 21.05%


IFT today, to be effective tomorrow, in hopes of a good week:

G: 20%
F: 0
C: 35%
S: 35%
I: 10%


NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE - The Information in this message is provided for entertainment, education and informational purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. The Information contained in or provided from or through this message is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice. The Information in this message and provided from or through this message is general in nature and is not specific to you the Reader or anyone else. YOU SHOULD NOT MAKE ANY DECISION, FINANCIAL, INVESTMENTS, TRADING OR OTHERWISE, BASED ON ANY OF THE INFORMATION PRESENTED ON THIS MESSAGE WITHOUT UNDERTAKING INDEPENDENT DUE DILIGENCE AND CONSULTATION WITH A PROFESSIONAL BROKER OR COMPETENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR. You understand that you are using any and all Information available on or through this forum AT YOUR OWN RISK.
RISK STATEMENT - The trading of stocks, futures, commodities, index futures or any other securities has potential rewards, and it also has potential risks involved. Trading may not be suitable for everyone. Anyone wishing to invest should seek his or her own independent financial or professional advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

 

[Rogue]

My gambler’s tolerance for bumps and dips is paying off for now, but my anxiety that caused me to pull
back last month cost me some earnings on this bump. Individual results may vary, past performance is not
a predictor of future performance, play at your own risk, yadda yadda yadda....

Rocky year, very good past 5 weeks.
Between some stabilization in Europe and the Fed making it’s most decisive move in eons, I think things are looking up.
Unrest in the Middle East is nothing new, but sometimes prompts market weirdness, so it’s something to keep an eye on.
Time to dip my toes back in the pool of the I fund.

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 08/31/2012 is 11.52%.
(Your PIP is posted by the 3rd business day of each month.)

That’s great improvement over earlier in the year when I was at 4.55% (April), 0.06% (May), 5.59% (June), and 8.59% (July).

73[SUP]rd[/SUP] percentile out of 962 accounts on the AutoTracker at tsptalk.com @ +11.13% ytd.

Contrarian indicators are signalling "buy."

I ignored the last buy signal and took cover. Not this time.
Here comes a swell. Surf’s up!

 

[Rogue]

From August:

According to the AT, I’m beating the Sentiment Survey System, which is a contrarian indicator, “market timing” strategy with a pretty good track record.
Me = 8.59%
SSS = 8.2%

This week's sign of the apocalypse...I'm ahead of 3 folks who are very good at this, and who seem to know much much more about investing than I do, each with entirely different approaches to this market. No easy conclusions here, other than this is a hard time to do well, but obviously there ARE opportunities.

birchtree = 8.54%; Dist: 20% C, 80% I
skypilot = 8.26%; Dist: 100% F
wwwtractor = 8.04%; Dist: 50% S, 50% I

Things are normalizing I suppose.

Birchtree = #116, +15.34%
skypilot = #426, +7.72%
wwwtractor = #106, +15.68%
coolhand = #489, +6.58%
Sentiment Survey = #95, +16.1%4

 

[Rogue]

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 09/30/2012 is 18.55%.

#331 @ 8.89% ytd on the AT.

Staying put @
G: 20
F: 0
C: 35
S: 35
I: 10

 

[Rogue]

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 11/30/2012 is 9.79%.

#324 on the AT.
Moving From This:
G: 20
F: 0
C: 35
S: 35
I: 10

To This:
G: 15
F: 0
C: 30
S: 55
I: 0

Caught a side wave, time for the Christmas Swells.

 

[Rogue]

ZOMGZ! The cliff approacheth! I have no idea what it means for us, so I'ma prolly stay put.
AT says #301 @ "10.85%" ytd. Might move some from S to C.

 

[Rogue]

Following SSS, in a delayed way after catching a little swell by waiting.
SSS says "HOLD G" after "Sell, G" a couple weeks ago.
Just entered an IFT, moving to 80% G, 10% C, & 10% S. This is where contrarian timing hurts, expecting a little more gain if you stay, but knowing the adage is to "sell high." So, I'm selling.
Really an IFT this time, not a "contribution allocation change." I've done that instead of an IFT, more than once probably.

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 12/31/2012 is 11.33%.

10.9% for 2012, according to the AT. SSS made 20.62% in 2012, so obviously I didn't follow it closely enough.

Right now, I'm ranked 1 above the SSS on the AT.
#254 @ 3.69% ytd
SSS is #255 @ 3.68% ytd

 

[Rogue]

OK, today moved
from:
G:80%
C:10%
S:10%

to:
G: 20%
C: 20%
S: 60%

 

[Rogue]

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 01/31/2013 is 12.03%.

From AT: YTD Daily(yesterday?) MTD

[TD="class: text, width: 6%, align: right"] 3.42 %
[/TD]
[TD="class: text, width: 6%, align: right"] -0.89 %[/TD]
[TD="class: text, width: 6%, align: right"] -0.69 %
[/TD]
[TD="class: text, width: 4%, align: center"]
[/TD]

I think I timed this just right. Made an IFT before noon on Friday, should have taken effect COB Monday.
IFT moved a bunch from G fund to S. Today, S gained nicely, which should be a good bump for me, noticable on TSP & the AT tomorrow.

 

[Rogue]

[TD="class: text, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: text, width: 6%, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: text, width: 6%, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: text, width: 4%, align: center"][/TD]

Yup, it went well for me this time. Followed the SSS (not 100% in S Fund, but 60%S and 20%C)
Moved up to #332 on the AT.
...............................YTD..............................Daily.................................MTD

[TD="class: text, align: right"] 4.17 %[/TD]
[TD="class: text, width: 6%, align: right"] 0.73 %[/TD]
[TD="class: text, width: 6%, align: right"] 0.03 %[/TD]
[TD="class: text, width: 4%, align: center"][/TD]

This is weird though. My IFT on Friday moved 60% to S fund, 20% to C and 20% to G.
Today my distribution is G: 20.04%, C: 20.01%, S: 59.95% accd'g to tsp.gov.
So I lost more on than I gained between Friday and Monday? I wonder if the data is lagging?

Still wondering about the "payday effect" of that much $$ pumping into the market, and our funds in particular, and whether or not that would be a good timing strategy.
I looked a few years ago and didn't think it would work, might look again now that I know more about this timing function.

 

[Rogue]

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 03/31/2013 is 9.29%.

#281 on the AT, 7.46% ytd, sticking with this week's change for a bit....G 40%, C 30%, S 30%.

 

[Rogue]

#284 on the AT, 10.59% ytd, (10.76 pvs 12 months per tsp.gov), going to tighten up a bit....just entered for tomorrow - G 65%, C 10%, S 25%.

 

[Rogue]

Going to buy a little bit during this dip.
I hope that's what I'm doing at least.

New IFT, after Noon, for tomorrow:
G: 40%
C: 20%
S: 40%

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 05/31/2013 is 18.77%.
(Your PIP is posted by the 3rd business day of each month.)

PS:
#238 on the AT @ 9.8%

 

[Rogue]

OK, my IFT shows up this morning in my balances, but lagging on here (AT) and in the pie charts on tsp site.
So, trying to time a "buy low" for that big dip yesterday worked, the dip held through COB and my IFT went into effect this morning. Now it remains to be seen if the move was correct. It's only a 15% move (from 65% in G fund to 50% in G fund moving into C&S).

I did move from #238 to #209 on the AT overnight.

Interesting that the money moved last night, I was worried that it would lag a day since it was entered after 12Noon.

 

[Rogue]

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 07/31/2013 is 16.42%.

#321 on the AT @ 12.1% ytd.

Currently invested as follows:

G: 60%
C: 20%
S: 20%

Sentiment Survey says "Hold S" this week.
I'm going to protect some profit now and pull back to G,buy a tiny bit of I.

IFT submitted tonight:

G: 85%
C: 5%
S: 5%
I: 5%

 

[Rogue]

Somehow I didn't include the above IFT on the Autotracker. Dammit. Still shows me as 60/20/20.
OK, SSS says "Buy S" so Ima move some.

New IFT submitted this (Sunday) afternoon:

G: 60
C: 30
S: 10

#217 on the AT

 

[Rogue]

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 09/30/2013 is 15.39%.


(Your PIP is posted by the 3rd business day of each month.)

Just moved to:

G: 40
C: 20
S: 20
I: 20

Somehow I had a chunk in the F fund and didn't realize it...mistake made in pvs IFT I guess.

15.17% ytd on the AT #341. I'm gaining ground, but losing it on the AT.