Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

If you're looking for something outside of the TSP, you might want to consider ACAD (Acadia Pharmaceuticals). I made my first initial ACAD investment in 2010 @ 1.76 per share. I closed that position last June @ 52.45 per share. As you can imagine, the profits were spectacular.

Some bad news hit the stock overnight and it lost 45.35% today. I took advantage of that decline and got back in @ 23.87. Of course, I'm not as heavily invested as I was when I sold last June. But, it's still a sizable position. ACAD closed today @ 25.02, and is up over 5% in after-hours trading.

The bad news has to do with the FDA and some labeling issues with the label expansion of their product, Nuplazid. You've likely seen the Nuplazid commercials. Be sure to Google it to become familiar with the situation before dumping any $$$ into it.

But IMHO, the upside potential outweighs the downside risks. I am hopeful that ACAD will see the 30's soon enough, and then the 40's in due time. But, it could be awhile before it sees the 50's again.

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

My recent swing trades...

Sold ACAD @ 27.05. (Bought yesterday @ 23.87)

Sold TSLA @ 705.00. (Bought last Friday @ 590.06)

These will likely rise higher, but I could not resist pocketing the easy, guaranteed profits.

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

/// WARNING ///

The VIX is quite low @ 18.88, and one cent off of its 52-week low of 18.87.

God Bless :smile:

 

[Bullitt]

I see an algo bot driven melt up for the next two weeks with the fed and options expiration out of the way. VIX < 20 = Risk on.

If the VIX keeps falling, 20 is the level to watch, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ head of research, Thomas Lee, wrote in a note. That is just a touch away from the current level. “We view a decisive move below 20 as significant,” Lee said.

Not only would such low expected volatility signify optimism on stocks more broadly, but it would also likely prompt buying from hedge funds that use mathematical models, tracking a range of indicators, to find investment opportunities, Lee suggested. Capital would pour into stocks, more than making up for the downward pressure from anyone selling.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-small-drop-in-the-vix-fear-gauge-could-boost-stocks-51613161515

 

[Rod]

You could be correct. :fing02:

Of course, that article is from 12 Feb. The VIX dipped below 20 the same day it was published. Perhaps any predicted action from fund managers has already taken place, especially since new highs were made in the Dow, S&P, and Naz also on the same day... along with follow-through (in the Dow) the following week. I guess the wise thing to do now is to wait for consecutive days below 20 to confirm any breakdown in the VIX.

I see an algo bot driven melt up for the next two weeks with the fed and options expiration out of the way. VIX < 20 = Risk on.



https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-small-drop-in-the-vix-fear-gauge-could-boost-stocks-51613161515

 

[Rod]

I guess the wise thing to do now is to wait for consecutive days below 20 to confirm any breakdown in the VIX.

The VIX did not breakdown. At least not yet. The DWCPF led today's selloff with a 2.68% haircut. But, will the selloff continue into tomorrow? We shall see.

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

My warning on Monday was warranted. The DWCPF (S Fund) has been hit the hardest. Since yesterday, the DWCPF is down 4.96%. What will tomorrow bring? A bounce, perhaps? Good luck with your $$$!

God Bless :smile:

The VIX did not breakdown. At least not yet. The DWCPF led today's selloff with a 2.68% haircut. But, will the selloff continue into tomorrow? We shall see.

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

:fing02:

What will tomorrow bring? A bounce, perhaps?

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

I hope y'all have been enjoying this rocket ride, which is destined to return to earth for a "refueling stop." This will be sooner rather than later. Over the past 4 weeks, the major indices have gained:

Dow: 4.76%

S&P: 6.76%

Naz: 6.25%


Current RSI's (14-Day):

Dow: 74.28 (Overbought)

S&P: 74.53 (Overbought)

Naz: 64.00 (May have more room to run.)


Next week will be interesting for sure because it is chock full of earnings reports from some big names. Good luck with your investments!

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

Pop'n in to say, "Yo!" :fing02:

I've been super busy riding the AMC wave! :headbang:

Hope y'all are doing great! :beerchug:

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

Hope you "old timers" are doing well! :smile: Pop'n in again to let y'all know I'm still alive-n-kick'n. :fing02:

As you know, Mr. Market is being affected by both The Fed and omicron. I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow is a green day. But, don't let that fool you. Omicron will become more of a player as more states eventually report cases. Then there is the fear of the unknown- just how bad will omicron become? Will the current vaccines be effective? And as you know, Mr. Market hates uncertainty. Time will tell if it's a variant that we should be truly concerned about. If so, then Mr. Market will abhor that. In the meantime, keep your heads on an economic swivel... paying close attention to bond yields, oil, dollar, etc., etc. You know the drill.

God Bless :smile:

 

[bmneveu]

Hope you "old timers" are doing well! :smile: Pop'n in again to let y'all know I'm still alive-n-kick'n. :fing02:

As you know, Mr. Market is being affected by both The Fed and omicron. I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow is a green day. But, don't let that fool you. Omicron will become more of a player as more states eventually report cases. Then there is the fear of the unknown- just how bad will omicron become? Will the current vaccines be effective? And as you know, Mr. Market hates uncertainty. Time will tell if it's a variant that we should be truly concerned about. If so, then Mr. Market will abhor that. In the meantime, keep your heads on an economic swivel... paying close attention to bond yields, oil, dollar, etc., etc. You know the drill.

God Bless :smile:

I'm *hoping* 1. omicron is a non-issue, and 2. the market realizes that quickly.

Maybe asking a lot there, but early reports suggest this variant is pretty mild. Just like the flu, we are going to see a new strain of COVID every year now as it mutates to adapt and survive. The good news with that is, viruses mutate to stay alive, not to kill their host. That should mean that these mutations will continue to be less and less deadly. Here's to hoping...

 

[nnuut]

Nice to hear from you again Rod! I Agree with you on the VIRUS stuff!

 

[tom4jean]

Yeah it makes absolutely no sense to me. The delta variant was bad. A lot more people were dying from it then the original strain, and it appears that this new variant is not as deadly. I'm of the opinion that there's people manipulating the market and they're using it as an excuse to cover their tracks.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

 

[Rod]

Yeah... I'm hearing talk that this sell-off is more about a lack of confidence in The Fed than it is about omicron. Like I said earlier, omicron will certainly have a negative affect as more cases eventually appear in more states. I think it's still too early to tell just how severe omicron will be. We can't judge/expect its severity by the cases in South Africa because supposedly those were younger patients. Just like the previous strains, everyone will be affected differently. All we can do is prepare mentally for the worst and hope for the best. But you must admit, we are long overdue for at least a 10% pullback.

 

[Rod]

Just as I said... omicron will eventually begin to pop up in other states. Now, will Mr. Market react to the second US case of omicron in Minnesota?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/02/minnesota-reports-second-us-omicron-covid-case-in-resident-who-traveled-to-nyc.html

 

[Rod]

Nice short covering rally into the close. But, who knows what Monday will bring. Keep both eyes and ears on The Fed. It is truly in the driver's seat.

God Bless :smile:

 

[Valkyrie]

Just as I said... omicron will eventually begin to pop up in other states. Now, will Mr. Market react to the second US case of omicron in Minnesota?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/02/min...vid-case-in-resident-who-traveled-to-nyc.html

already proven it has mild sickness or nothing, but fear and control are in play and money to be made by ceos, politicians in control

https://academyofideas.com/2015/11/fear-and-social-control/

 

[Rod]

already proven it has mild sickness or nothing, but fear and control are in play and money to be made by ceos, politicians in control

https://academyofideas.com/2015/11/fear-and-social-control/

It's too early to tell just how severe it will be. Time will tell. But, this sell-off is more about a lack of confidence in The Fed than omicron.

 

[Bullitt]

I surely wouldn't trade around COVID which has been a political issue from day one - globally.

Among 70 cases reported in Europe that included information on disease severity, half of the patients had no symptoms and half had mild symptoms, according to a report on Thursday by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

There were no cases of severe disease, hospitalization, or death.

In South Africa, where the daily number of reported COVID-19 cases doubled on Wednesday to 8,561, symptoms for reinfected patients and those infected after vaccination appear to be mild.

https://www.reuters.com/business/he...cron-variant-bring-milder-illness-2021-12-03/

Omicron was a trigger for something bigger, that being de-leveraging on a global scale. Evergrande, crypto, and options trading in meme stocks are just broad examples. Many of those meme happy stocks are down 50-80% since February/March, well beyond a bear market. How much spill over will that deleveraging have in the major indexes?

But don't let a good crisis go to waste. Many county supervisors, governors, and higher ups have enjoyed actually having some power and will be more than happy to extend some of their theatrical ideas during Christmas.