Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

Hello All! :smile:

Long time, no post. I hope you guys are hanging in there! It's been a rough ride, hasn't it? But, we'll continue to have our moments of explosive rallies like we did last week. As most of you are aware, Mr. Market won't pivot to higher levels until The Fed pivots. That's what we're waiting on. I posted this to my facebook on 23 Sep:

There are still very rough waters ahead to include a recession... which we are probably already in. Our long-term investments will continue to ebb and flow for quite some time. The Fed probably won't even consider cutting interest rates until late 2023 or early 2024. Until then, expect volatility on Wall Street. There will be good days (really good days) and there will be bad days (really bad days). As long as we remain invested, and continue to invest, we will come out ahead of this mess. As always, buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.

With that said, The Fed might cut even sooner when the rate hikes catch up with what's actually going on with the economy. In the meantime, just when we think Mr. Market cannot go any lower, Q4 earnings arrive. Prepare now mentally for that. Another thing that you can do to preserve your sanity in this volatile environment is this: Do not get excited about extreme swings in either direction during the pre-market or intraday. We've witnessed how quickly things can change on a dime. Of course, this makes it very difficult with planning and managing IFTs. Good on you if you sought shelter in the (G) Fund before this Bear came out of hibernation. If so, that's where I would remain (piling up cash) until The Fed's first hint at a pivot. If you're stuck in the mess, just continue to stick it out. Because what goes down must come up. In the meantime, increase those contributions during this "Sale of the Century." :fing02:

God Bless :smile:

 

[nasa1974]

Good to hear from you Rod. Jump in a little more often.

 

[nnuut]

Miss your input Rod, best of luck for you and yours.

 

[Boghie]

The FED will not cut rates till inflation is brought under control.

They are not part of the Federal government and their mandate is to ensure the integrity of the dollar. If the Federal government continues implementing inflationary policies, the FED will continue to raise rates to pull that 'money' of the the economy.

The Federal government has to stop barfing money into the economy and the Federal government has to stop implementing policies which retard energy availability. Simple - but I don't see it happening.

However, it may happen outside of Federal government management. If the bonds are not sold then the government cannot continue spending. That will be a very disruptive way of resolving the problem. Math is hard.

 

[Rod]

So, we're technically in a new Bull. But, I call "bull!" Why? Because the VIX is at a 40-month low. That cannot be good.

Remember... "Be fearful when others are greedy..." and "When volatility is low, it's time to go."

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

As expected, it was an overall down week on Wall Street. The Nasdaq snapped an impressive 8-week winning streak. The major indices finished down as follows:

Dow: -1.68%
S&P: -1.39%
Nasdaq: -1.43%

They remain positive year-to-date:

Dow: 1.75%
S&P: 13.25%
Nasdaq: 28.91%

My portfolio remains positive year-to-date:

36.39%

LORD willing, I will continue to beat the major indices.

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

For those of you interested, here are my YTD returns outside of the TSP:

My Roth: 39.37%

My Traditional (which used to be my TSP): 35.01%

My Wife's Roth: 41.13%

My Daughter's ESA: 45.46%
_________________________

Overall Average: 40.24%


God Bless! :smile:

 

[Rod]

Gosh... it's hard to believe I joined this forum nearly 20 years ago in June of 2004. Although I'm no longer a "regular" on here, I still like to pop in from time to time and say, "Hi!" I want to take this occasion to let you know how Mr. Market treated me in 2023.

I manage accounts between myself, my wife, and our daughter. I essentially trade those accounts alike. For example, on average, I will spend no more than 3% of the available cash of each account on any one stock/fund/index, etc. Whatever I purchase/sell, I usually purchase/sell it for all of the accounts.

With that being said, my 2023 annual average return is 42%. :fing02:

Whatever 2024 brings, I'll be going "short" into it. The S&P 500 is nearing an all-time high. Whenever that occurs, selling usually follows. If selling doesn't soon follow after the start of 2024, then I'll make some adjustments. However the week starts out, 2024 will certainly be an interesting year for the stock market/economy! Until next time! :beerchug:

God Bless! :smile:

 

[nasa1974]

Rod, great to hear from you. Nice job at 42%. I was happy with my 25% compared to what I lost in 2022. Stay healthy and have a great 2024.

 

[Rod]

Rod, great to hear from you. Nice job at 42%. I was happy with my 25% compared to what I lost in 2022. Stay healthy and have a great 2024.

Thank you... Likewise! Hey, you beat the S&P. That's what matters!

 

[Rod]

Whatever 2024 brings, I'll be going "short" into it. The S&P 500 is nearing an all-time high. Whenever that occurs, selling usually follows. If selling doesn't soon follow after the start of 2024, then I'll make some adjustments. However the week starts out, 2024 will certainly be an interesting year for the stock market/economy! Until next time! :beerchug:

God Bless! :smile:

My short strategy worked out nicely. I wish all of you the best in 2024! :fing02:

God Bless! :smile: