Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

Higher Oil Prices Next Week???

I don't know if this has been posted, but it seems there have been attacks over the weekend on Nigerian oil fields (8th largest exporter) along with kidnappings, 3 of which were American oil workers.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/africa/02/18/nigeria.abductions/index.html

This may affect oil prices once trading resumes on Tuesday.

Since oil can only be purchased with US dollars, here's some food for thought...

http://www.trinicenter.com/oops/iraqeuro.html

http://www.museletter.com/archive/149.html

Is it really about nukes in Iran???

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/index.pl/article_opinion?id=137173656

God Bless

 

[Rod]

I don't know if this has been posted, but it seems there have been attacks over the weekend on Nigerian oil fields (8th largest exporter) along with kidnappings, 3 of which were American oil workers.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/africa/02/18/nigeria.abductions/index.html

This may affect oil prices once trading resumes on Tuesday.

Looks like this has panned out. We may continue to see pressure on oil prices which could lead to a choppy week.

BTW, fill up your gas tanks. The price should increase within the next few days.

Still sitting 100 (G) while keeping an eye on (C).

God Bless

 

[Rod]

Technically speaking...

The S&P, W4500, and EFA seem to be on the uptrend.

It's tempting to jump in, but I'm keeping an eye on them the next couple days, especially the S&P since it is now testing its high. I may miss out on a couple green days this week, but I first need to get more of a feel for my chart reading before I begin making moves based strictly upon what I'm reading. I'm in practice mode now and pretending that I made the move. That said, and if I'm right, we should "come out ahead" with Wednesday & Thursday combined. Let's see what happens.

On another note, hopefully we have seen the last days of the 10,000 DOW. I'm predicting to be looking at 11,400 by May and perhaps 12,000 by year's end.

Still 100 (G)

God Bless

 

[Rod]

March & April

Well, seasonality speaking Mar & Apr tend to be some of the strongest months for the markets alongside Nov, Dec, and Jan. But we know how shabby those months were this past year besides the first week or so of Jan.

Last Mar & Apr were rather shaky as well. Take a look:

But as the old saying goes, past performance does not dictate future performance. That said, OVERALL Mar & Apr are great months to be invested. I won't be focusing on how they performed last year alone. But I wanted to give you a glimpse how they faired.

I'm leaning toward being invested by Tuesday. Stay tuned...

God Bless

 

[nnuut]

Rod, as I remember Mar. and Apr. 2005 were not that nice to me.
http://www.tsp.gov/rates/returns-tsp.html Go to RETURNS, Monthly, Individual Funds.

 

[Birchtree]

I had just oiled my wagon wheels

Nnuut,

Yes I remember that 900 point ride to the bottom of the hill - I gave up $138,000 in portfolio value - did some sacrifice selling of energy profits and bought the turkey all the way down - snatching up special raspberries in the bear patch. I survived that one - and came back even stronger. Now I sit and wait for the next blind side - in the meantime I'm in up to my eyeballs.

Dennis

 

[nnuut]

Yes!!!!!!! I remember, Thats when I learned sometimes it's better to run than fight. Too LATE, but a good lesson, that hanging in there is sometimes the worse thing you can do!!!

 

[Rod]

One Bourbon, One Scotch, and One Beer...

I was thinking about being invested by Tuesday.

I'm glad I held off simply for the fact that CSI are now sitting rather "arrogantly" at all-time highs while sticking their tongues out at the bears below.

I'm not saying they won't post further gains on Tuesday, but If I was invested, I would begin sliding my mug toward the "bartender" because profit-taking will be on tap.

God Bless

 

[Rod]

I would begin sliding my mug toward the "bartender" because profit-taking will be on tap.

gulp... gulp... gulp...

BURP

One more for the road "bartender", then this fella may look at getting his feet wet.

Disclaimer: Rod does not endorse drinking & driving.

 

[Rod]

Wow...

What a ride. I haven't been able to play AT ALL the past couple days due to being involved in military exercises. You prior military know what I'm talking about. When I woke up on Wednesday afternoon ( I work nights) and saw that the market had nearly recovered from Tuesday's losses, I was rather impressed.

I need to see how the next couple days go to decide how I want to move out of (G) because I'm getting anxious to do so.

God Bless

 

[Rod]

Dipping my toes into the water...

The market doesn't like rollercoaster rides for too long...

Effective Monday:

30 G

25 C

30 S

15 I

God Bless

 

[Rod]

One year ago this week:

God Bless

 

[Rod]

Look'n Good...

As of 0300, Futures are looking rather promising.

I've been tracking Futures since Feb 1 and tried to remain constant with the times, but they mainly fluctuate between the hours of 0200 and 0430 since I work nights.

Overall, if the Futures were positive across the board, then the day turned out to be generally positive.

I realize we really can't rely on Futures to predict the closing bell, but I thought the trend was interesting. Check it out for yourself:

God Bless

 

[Rod]

Bummer...

After 2 weeks in (G), I come out of my shell and Mr. Market slaps me in the face.

Emotions are telling me to run for cover, but common sense tells me that tommorrow will more than likely be positive.

Futures were looking really good early on. I don't know everything that impacted the market today because I just woke up.

But I do know this much, it seems the market did not react very much to the drop in oil. One would think that would have perhaps been some sort of catalyst for a shoot upwards. Maybe that will come tommorrow.

Don't have much else to say at this time.

God Bless

 

[Rod]

As of now...

The market is beginning to rebound ever so slightly.:suspicious:

I have no intention of pulling out just yet because I have no desire of being whipsawed.

God Bless

 

[Rod]

Emotions are telling me to run for cover, but common sense tells me that tommorrow will more than likely be positive.

NOTE TO SELF: MR. MARKET DOES NOT MAKE NOR CARE ABOUT "COMMON SENSE".

I entered the market Monday @ 2.17% for the year. I'm now at 1.23%.

It seems that when the market DOES finally turn green, I won't really be reaping any rewards. I'll simply be playing catch up for my losses unless it gives a BIG push higher.

I've been basing my moves a lot on the USD, but it doesn't seem to be helping. While the USD has been increasing in value since last Friday, the markets have been doing the opposite.

I think I will stay long in my current position and perhaps move things around a little on strength when that finally comes along.

One thing I keep reminding myself in keeping a positive attitude is that I am basically where I was last year at this time, which was 1.50 to 2.07% for the year and yet I still ended up beating the SPX.

Still plenty of time left in the year to make up for losses.

God Bless

 

[Rod]

Effective Thursday:

55 C

30 S

15 I

God Bless

 

[Rod]

Setting Up For A Rally...

Effective Friday:

40 C

60 S

Time for bed... when I awake in about 7 hours, I wanna see a cRaZy RALLY, ya hear?!?:blink:

God Bless

 

[Rod]

Time for bed... when I awake in about 7 hours, I wanna see a cRaZy RALLY, ya hear?!?

Well... stocks WERE rallying.:toung:

At least I'm now buying in lower on the (S) fund, and that (C) is looking really attractive now. Sure would be a good time to get in on it, but I'm already in and sold 15% of it to move into (S) along with 15% from (I).

Speaking of (I), international markets pretty well kicked butt today with the Nikkei being up over 400 points (2.62%). The EFA surely isn't reflecting it though... it's barely positive. I sold my 15% of (I) in case there is profit taking in the international markets tomorrow. I'm finished with that (I) for the time being, and hoping that my 40(C) 60(S) position is setting up for a much needed rally. We just can't say nowadays, but something has to give and that's what I'm going by.

God Bless

 

[Rod]

...hoping that my 40(C) 60(S) position is setting up for a much needed rally. We just can't say nowadays, but something has to give and that's what I'm going by.

God Bless

C'mon Mr. Market... give, give, give, and hold until COB.