07/29/13
Stocks made a big comeback on Friday as the Dow regained all of an early 150-point decline by the close. We saw many positive reversals, although not all indices closed in positive territory.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 166"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0057%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.08%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 continues to hold above the May highs despite 2 intraday attempts to break below it last week. The rising support broke on Thursday but if the positive reversal day can show some follow through today, it will just look like another dip that should have been bought.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index had a huge positive reversal day on Thursday and saw a textbook follow through on Friday. It is trading back below the May highs which makes the recent breakout look like it was a false breakout, so whether it can recapture those highs is the story to watch here.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The rally on Friday filled the overhead open gap (green) on the Nasdaq 100, but I am still watching the open gap below (red) for a possible target. I would be surprised if it wasn't filled sooner rather than later, but this market has surprised me all year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Yields on the 10-year headed higher last week after pulling back for a couple of weeks. The rising support line could act as resistance here after it fell back below it on Friday. Rising yields would mean lower bond and F-fund prices.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The indicators are not showing any signs of problems, except for possibly the put / call ratios.
One of my personal indicators, that I'm not too proud of but realize it's there, is my personal sentiment indicator. I can feel myself getting more bullish. I have been missing this recent rally and with what I am seeing out there, I find myself running out of reasons to doubt this market. BUT that is a strong contrarian indicator, and luckily I know it. This feeling usually comes around just before a change in market direction. For that reason, I'm not ready to act upon it, although the end of July is very strong historically, and it's really pulling at me.
August, on the other hand, isn't very strong historically, so that would be a reason to expect some kind of pullback soon.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks made a big comeback on Friday as the Dow regained all of an early 150-point decline by the close. We saw many positive reversals, although not all indices closed in positive territory.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 166"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0057%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.08%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 continues to hold above the May highs despite 2 intraday attempts to break below it last week. The rising support broke on Thursday but if the positive reversal day can show some follow through today, it will just look like another dip that should have been bought.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index had a huge positive reversal day on Thursday and saw a textbook follow through on Friday. It is trading back below the May highs which makes the recent breakout look like it was a false breakout, so whether it can recapture those highs is the story to watch here.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The rally on Friday filled the overhead open gap (green) on the Nasdaq 100, but I am still watching the open gap below (red) for a possible target. I would be surprised if it wasn't filled sooner rather than later, but this market has surprised me all year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Yields on the 10-year headed higher last week after pulling back for a couple of weeks. The rising support line could act as resistance here after it fell back below it on Friday. Rising yields would mean lower bond and F-fund prices.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The indicators are not showing any signs of problems, except for possibly the put / call ratios.
One of my personal indicators, that I'm not too proud of but realize it's there, is my personal sentiment indicator. I can feel myself getting more bullish. I have been missing this recent rally and with what I am seeing out there, I find myself running out of reasons to doubt this market. BUT that is a strong contrarian indicator, and luckily I know it. This feeling usually comes around just before a change in market direction. For that reason, I'm not ready to act upon it, although the end of July is very strong historically, and it's really pulling at me.
August, on the other hand, isn't very strong historically, so that would be a reason to expect some kind of pullback soon.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
