Got in yesterday at 30c and 20s for today’s bounce. I really thought I was getting in too early just like all the other times where it fell once I got in more. I really thought it would drop more and was regretting my decision to enter all day (I don’t look at the markets between noon and 4 since there’s nothing I can do about it). I was really surprised at the bounce today. It still may be short lived though. Lots of bad news, low readings on cnn fear index, poor breadth, low number of stocks below 200 day, It’s August! But today market participants said something at least. Good luck all!
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
div>
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!retread's Account talk
- Thread starter retread
- Start date
rangerray
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 208
Congratulations and I hope Monday is the icing on that cake!!!
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
Boghie
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 211
Powell is one issue. The FED is missioned to protect the dollar. They will have to increase the FED rate at some point in the near future...
Powell and the FED are minor issues that in normal times might be worth yakking about.
Now, not so much. There is a lot of 'uncertainty' in the air.
Don't worry about a 0.50% FED increase.
Froth and Uncertainty.
Not good.
;damnitI read this today and it ties in with how extended the monthly charts are. Here is the link: https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/this-isnt-normal/
"Now though, the “crystal ball” is flashing bearish again. VIX call options expiring next Wednesday are trading for about five times the price of the equivalent put options. That’s also true of the VIX calls expiring in mid-September. Traders are willing to pay five times more to bet on a higher VIX than on a lower one. And, a higher VIX usually goes along with a falling market."
Another site I watch suggested that the mid September time frame might see a big change in market.
DreamboatAnnie
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 543
Great article! Thank you Retread! Good tidbit on VIX Options premium price correlation to market...like a crystal ball.
I know I said maybe a down move to July lows and I still think there is a bear flag forming on some of the charts. That's why I'm not going all in. However positive action today and yesterday and recapturing 50 day on IWM and DWCPF today (if it holds!) has me leaning to get in a little. I have another IFT to use this month to get in more if things continue to trend up. 60G 20S 20C cob. Good luck all!
DreamboatAnnie
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 543
Looks like you maybe right Retread. I would nit be surprised if it hits it thus week. Getting closer. Best wishes to you! :smile:Well I went against my seasonal last week which says to stay in G til mid Oct and I got bit on Tuesday. I was only 40% in so not too huge of a hit. But am using my last IFT to go back to G today. Powell is backpedaling and admitted that inflation would last longer and we're seeing that in the UUP and TNX which remain elevated. The % of stocks above their 200 day moving average continues to fall. If you look at the graph below it bounced off the 40 week MA through 2019, a few times last year, and one time this year. That changed in July. It has been in a steady downward trend since summer. The character of the market has changed this month. I keep thinking about the Hindenburg Omens (3 of them!) we were getting last month. Going to wait for the market to prove itself before jumping back in. Good luck everyone!
So we kicked the debt ceiling can down the road and markets gapped up today (so far). Practically every chart shows a gap up which means they will eventually get filled (transports trying to do that now maybe). Jumping in a little today (why is it always easier to jump in when the markets goin up?) but holding back because of the gaps on the downside. Seasonal strat picks up next week and I am hoping for good jobs numbers tomorrow. 60G, 20C, 20S cob. Good luck all.On a more positive note I read this in the New York Times today:
"A close look at the numbers shows that the annual C.P.I. inflation rate reflects the very low base levels of one year ago, when the pandemic had suppressed demand and prices were low. The month-to-month numbers support a different narrative. Most basically, if you look at the monthly C.P.I. numbers — as well as those of other inflation measures — you will find that although inflation is high, it is not spiking. Consider that monthly C.P.I. rose:
- .09 percent in October.
- 0.7 percent in November.
- 0.6 percent in December.
- 0.6 percent in January.
It’s true that this has been the worst year for inflation in more than 40 years, but we’ve known that for months. What these numbers show is that although inflation is high, it has also been fairly stable on a month-to-month basis. "
Similar threads
