retread's Account talk

[rangerray]

Shouldn't we expect to see lumber come down as the economy continues to move more towards normalcy? I mean, I can understand being excited when oil is moving up, especially if it's due to increased demand from a rocketing economy. On the other hand, lumber is sky high because of turmoil and instability. Unless you're invested in lumber, I'd think the general feel is that when it's coming down that means we're doing great.

Just a random thought.

 

[mmk119]

part of the storm that made lumber prices rise, was the increased demand for housing at the same time employees were being sent home. until returning to work employee production of milled lumber catches up with demand, the improvements in the economy will still produced a short term increase in lumber prices. its just a catch up game before prices return to normal.

 

[cpowith4]

I follow a guy on YouTube, “Uneducated Economist” who either works at or owns a lumber yard and provides some great analysis on lumber prices as well as other things. His take on current prices goes back to 2018 when Canada had bug issues and compounded by COVID.

 

[retread]

So a possible bear flag forming on the S fund and IWM? Both failed and were rejected at 2 intersecting indicies: the 20 and 50 day MA. QQQ and SMH (tech sector) both failed and closed below their 20 and 50 day MA. For the week S fund closed below it's 20 period MA for the second week in a row and that 20 period MA is flattening. IWM just closed it's week below the 20 period MA. It hasn't done that since May of last year. Rut Rough!

 

[retread]

Went to 100% G yesterday not really based on what the fed said but more on seasonality which indicates higher probability of lower returns during the next week. Season has 100% next Friday. Will see. But the Parabolic SAR I like to monitor has been indicating downward momentum.

 

[retread]

I don't see how we can be going to new highs with less than 50% of stocks above their 50 day moving average. If you look at the previous 2 times it's been down this far (early March and late Jan) we had significant pull backs.

 

[retread]

Finding it difficult to get back in when the Transports are still showing a bearish flag. And the C/S fund nearing the top of the Bollinger band. I definitely have FOMO today though. Seasonal has me in S tomorrow. Just don't know what to do

 

[Khotso]

I don't see how we can be going to new highs with less than 50% of stocks above their 50 day moving average. If you look at the previous 2 times it's been down this far (early March and late Jan) we had significant pull backs.

View attachment 49673

One note on this. The late Jan, early March pullbacks happened simultaneously with the drop in % S&P500 stocks below 50 day moving average. This time is different. Stocks are moving up while percent above is moving down -- the large caps are carrying things it seems?

 

[retread]

Capitulating. RSP, equal weight S and P, seems to be holding up and now capturing 20 day MA. Transports about flat, still worried about bearish flag there. Parabolic SAR now indicating buy signal. That usually lags but that's ok, for me it confirms the uptrend. I was waiting to see if we were going to break out of the long term consolidation or head back down. Slightly following my seasonal which says 100%S today but I just can't put that much in S. Been burned too many times. When S drops, it drops hard! 60S/40C COB today. Good luck everyone!

 

[retread]

Was browsing around and found this today. While SPX has been steadily climbing, RSP has been trapped in a trading channel (much like the IWM). I would be more confident in adding more in if IWM and RSP (and the transports) were more in line with SPX. But there continue to be divergences. Oh, and percent of stocks > then 50 day moving average is hovering around 50%. That peaked in mid April at around 95%.

 

[retread]

Noticed that HYG fell a lot yesterday. Wondering if this is the beginning of forming a bearish flag.

 

[tsptalk]

Good catch. It looks like a possible lower high forming, although it would have to go below the prior low to make that official.

 

[retread]

Well they opened up a rescue operation this afternoon. Those of us who went to G recently just got pies in the face.

 

[retread]

Higher lows on the VIX but yet the market keeps going higher. More divergence.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Great observation! Thank you Retread! :smile:

 

[retread]

CNN Fear and Greed index drifting lower all year. Don't know what that means though. More divergence?

 

[Whipsaw]

Buy when there is blood in the streets... is this predictive?

 

[retread]

What blood? We haven’t had more than a 10% correction in months. Lol

 

[retread]

For those of us patiently waiting in G, is today the day to get back in or will it come down some more? I've noticed the last few months that mid month is dangerous. And this week is options expiration I think. Tempted to get back in but might wait another day to see how the afternoon reacts once the rescue operation begins (Powell speaking). S fund is at the lower BB so reaction sideways or up likely to happen. Easy to get out on red days but hard to jump back in. Good luck!

 

[retread]

Just not coming down enough to entice me to get back in