RealMoneyIssues' Account Talk

[RealMoneyIssues]

Birchtree is always in the Euphoria stage!

Soooooo true

 

[MrJohnRoss]

RMI, the ebbchart would have fit in nicely on your chart. I have been using the ebbchart's signals to follow the exchange-traded fund, TNA (since May 2011). Had a gain of +154% from May thru December of last year. Got off to a great start again this year with a string of 10 correct buy and short signals for TNA. So far, the ETF system is up over +12% this month. Just a heads-up to traders looking for an edge. By the way, the new mechanical calling system started in May and it really takes the emotions out of trading.

Now THAT sounds like my kinda signals!

 

[jkenjohnson]

Birchtree is always in the Euphoria stage!

Is it natural or is he smoking something?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Is it natural or is he smoking something?

Nope, he's a Permabull... well, maybe too much bull manure?

 

[nasa1974]

Are you still up or did you head off to bed after nnuut and I signed off? :toung:

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Are you still up or did you head off to bed after nnuut and I signed off? :toung:

Last check before I head to bead. I was still up when y'all decided to head to bed (remember, back shift for a couple weeks)...

Have a great day!!

 

[nasa1974]

Last check before I head to bead. I was still up when y'all decided to head to bed (remember, back shift for a couple weeks)...

Have a great day!!

I've been on day shift for so long I do not know if I could do shift work again. Later.

 

[Birchtree]

The days of C fund at $7.86, S fund of $9.06, and I fund of $10.29 are long gone. Those of us that were buying those lows are going to do really, really well in the next five years. Those lows were in March '09. Dollar cost averaging down into the lows provided ample opportunity to get flush with shares and the uphill climb was just as sweet. Buy and hold is an excellent approach for the longer term investor - all you need is vision and faith. Snort

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The days of C fund at $7.86, S fund of $9.06, and I fund of $10.29 are long gone. Those of us that were buying those lows are going to do really, really well in the next five years. Those lows were in March '09. Dollar cost averaging down into the lows provided ample opportunity to get flush with shares and the uphill climb was just as sweet. Buy and hold is an excellent approach for the longer term investor - all you need is vision and faith. Snort

BT, you must be smoking something! On 1/1/2000 (over 12 years ago), the S&P was at 1476.41.
Where is it today?
1314.65
Total return for 12 years of "Buy & Hold" = -10.95%.
I'm not just trying to plug my trading system, but if done correctly, a good system is worth it's weight in gold.
Just my humble opinion, but Buy & Hold is alot like my grandpa's Oldsmobile. :laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

And the Dodge Dart is coming back. The secret of buy and hold is to always dollar cost average - especially in down times, that's where shares are accumulated on the cheap.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

And the Dodge Dart is coming back. The secret of buy and hold is to always dollar cost average - especially in down times, that's where shares are accumulated on the cheap.

Ok, and for those people that can't add to their retirement account? Where does that put them if the overall direction of the market is down?

 

[SteelSaving]

Who can't add to their retirement account?

 

[KevinD]

Retired people?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Who can't add to their retirement account?

Retired people?

Or people who aren't making enough to put money aside for retirement.

Just saying...

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

RMI's OCD Chart:

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 1100"]
[TR]
[TD].
Trading
Date[/TD]
[TD].
Seven
Sentinels[/TD]
[TD]TSP
Talk
SS[/TD]
[TD]Top 5
In
Stocks[/TD]
[TD]Top
10 In
Stocks[/TD]
[TD].
Season
-ality[/TD]
[TD].
.
Uptrend[/TD]
[TD]Mr
John
Ross[/TD]
[TD]J
Ken
Johnson[/TD]
[TD].
10 Mon
M-SMA [/TD]
[TD].
LMBF
Method[/TD]
[TD]Non-TSP
Buy/Sell
Model[/TD]
[TD]Long-
Short
Timing[/TD]
[TD]Signal
????
lol[/TD]
[TD]In a
Perfect
World[/TD]
[TD].
My TSP
Returns[/TD]
[TD]My IRA
Realized
Returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Term[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Ask[/TD]
[TD]Ask[/TD]
[TD]Ask[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Weight?[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]SPX[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]20%[/TD]
[TD]10%[/TD]
[TD]44%[/TD]
[TD]Safe-708[/TD]
[TD]Safe-637[/TD]
[TD]Long-760[/TD]
[TD]Short-786[/TD]
[TD]Long-482[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.24%[/TD]
[TD]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]81%[/TD]
[TD]90%[/TD]
[TD]48%[/TD]
[TD]Short-730[/TD]
[TD]Safe-663[/TD]
[TD]Long-428[/TD]
[TD]Short-802[/TD]
[TD]Long-450[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.25%[/TD]
[TD]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]90%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]Short-586[/TD]
[TD]Long-712[/TD]
[TD]Long-288[/TD]
[TD]Short-835[/TD]
[TD]Long-411[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.67%[/TD]
[TD]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]56%[/TD]
[TD]Short-605[/TD]
[TD]Long-547[/TD]
[TD]Long-229[/TD]
[TD]Short-624[/TD]
[TD]Long-411[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]1.11%[/TD]
[TD]0.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]59%[/TD]
[TD]Short-640[/TD]
[TD]Long-506[/TD]
[TD]Long-206[/TD]
[TD]Short-658[/TD]
[TD]Long-384[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.46%[/TD]
[TD]0.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]10%[/TD]
[TD]65%[/TD]
[TD]Short-506[/TD]
[TD]Long-600[/TD]
[TD]Long-236[/TD]
[TD]Short-530[/TD]
[TD]Long-429[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.68%[/TD]
[TD]0.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]30%[/TD]
[TD]57%[/TD]
[TD]Short-554[/TD]
[TD]Long-584[/TD]
[TD]Long-270[/TD]
[TD]Short-593[/TD]
[TD]Long-423[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.69%[/TD]
[TD]1.49%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]54%[/TD]
[TD]Short-640[/TD]
[TD]Long-408[/TD]
[TD]Long-191[/TD]
[TD]Short-667[/TD]
[TD]Long-343[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.69%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]20-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]80%[/TD]
[TD]90%[/TD]
[TD]48%[/TD]
[TD]Short-664[/TD]
[TD]Long-348[/TD]
[TD]Long-167[/TD]
[TD]Short-684[/TD]
[TD]Long-312[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.69%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]61%[/TD]
[TD]Short-834[/TD]
[TD]Long-348[/TD]
[TD]Long-174[/TD]
[TD]Short-863[/TD]
[TD]Long-311[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.71%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]78%[/TD]
[TD]64%[/TD]
[TD]67%[/TD]
[TD]Short-853[/TD]
[TD]Long-364[/TD]
[TD]Long-198[/TD]
[TD]Short-873[/TD]
[TD]Long-309[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.71%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]25-Jan
[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]57%[/TD]
[TD]78%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]Short-852[/TD]
[TD]Long-320[/TD]
[TD]Long-162[/TD]
[TD]Short-873[/TD]
[TD]Long-331[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Well, once again we had another slow grind up day. With Apple's earnings coming out much better than expect, their stock is up 8% after hours. Futures are up nearly 4% this evening, but as we all know a lot can change at 0130 and 0530 EST.

The markets can gap up tomorrow morning, but is that going to bring in the profit takers to drop the market? Who knows...

If market volume continues to stay low (institutional traders are absent), then I believe the markets are going to continue to grind up. The S&P is at some pretty strong resistance (1320-1330) and it will take more volume and/or a good catalyst to break that resistance. The market is extended (too far away from 50 SMA) and some would say a pull back is needed to digest this strong move up to continue. I guess we will see...

On the other hand, if some news comes out, the volume picks up, we could see a reversal of the markets. If we do, it would probably be to the 1250-1275 area. This is a good thing, as it would allow people who might have waited (ok, me too) for a drop to pick up some more long investments. This week is going to be interesting... although, now that I think about it, I probably said that last week.

The economic calendar is full this week with market moving news. The FOMC is releasing their minutes and the chairman will have a press conference tomorrow afternoon. Jobless claims will be released Thursday, and Friday is the release of quarterly GDP numbers. All will have some impact on the markets for good or bad

Well, I have blabbered on long enough and many of you already look at all of this info... All we can do is be at the mercy of the markets and try to make the best decision we can based on the information we have...

Great Trading To All

 

[nasa1974]

RMI, I know you are all revved up and ready to go. So have a good night and see you tomorrow morning before you hit the sack. Over and out. :laugh:

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

RMI, I know you are all revved up and ready to go. So have a good night and see you tomorrow morning before you hit the sack. Over and out. :laugh:

Roger, see you in the morning

 

[MrJohnRoss]

And the Dodge Dart is coming back. The secret of buy and hold is to always dollar cost average - especially in down times, that's where shares are accumulated on the cheap.

Dodge Dart. Pffffffftt.

Of course you wanna buy when share prices are down. But market timing works better than buy & hold any day. Period.

 

[SteelSaving]

Or people who aren't making enough to put money aside for retirement.

Just saying...

Retired people shouldn't have much in equities so DCA'ing shouldn't matter to them anymore. People who aren't making "enough" need to get their finances in order quickly to get back to making "enough."

 

[ebbnflow]

Now THAT sounds like my kinda signals!

Thanks, and the ebbchart signals are provided a week to two weeks in advance. Calculating the cycles I monitor makes that possible. Here's the latest update of the exchange-traded fund, TNA (W 12, L 3, +15.58%) using the ebbchart's buy/short signals.

Today's signal is short TNA. One more thing, if you held TNA from May thru December last year, the loss would have been -52%. Following TNA with the ebbchart signals during the same period produced a gain of 154%. :nuts:

-- ebb