Looks like ya may have made a good play so far today. 
Hope they don't pump & dump @ 2:30pm EST. :worried:
Hope they don't pump & dump @ 2:30pm EST. :worried:
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Reactive1's Account Talk
- Thread starter Reactive1
- Start date
luv2read
Active member
IFT Tuesday after 12 Noon was effective yesterday COB, so it was a pretty good buy-in move, too bad it wasn't more in C and S. Did you go more in C/S/I today?
IFT for COB 12 June 08
100% G
Oh well, I thought I might get lucky, I think I did make about 10 bucks, but I might have lost 10 bucks also, not sure. I have no interest in being in anyway in the near-term, I just thought today might be a good one. In fact it showed just how severely damaged this market is. The S&P has lost 65 points or so in 5 trading days and has no ability to rebound even a percent with everything seemingly "on sale." There is no institutional interest at all and when that's the case there is only one direction for the market to go.
Thanks everyone for the concern and interest.
100% G
Oh well, I thought I might get lucky, I think I did make about 10 bucks, but I might have lost 10 bucks also, not sure. I have no interest in being in anyway in the near-term, I just thought today might be a good one. In fact it showed just how severely damaged this market is. The S&P has lost 65 points or so in 5 trading days and has no ability to rebound even a percent with everything seemingly "on sale." There is no institutional interest at all and when that's the case there is only one direction for the market to go.
Thanks everyone for the concern and interest.
You're OK R1.
IFT for COB 12 June 08
100% G
Oh well, I thought I might get lucky, I think I did make about 10 bucks, but I might have lost 10 bucks also, not sure. I have no interest in being in anyway in the near-term, I just thought today might be a good one. In fact it showed just how severely damaged this market is. The S&P has lost 65 points or so in 5 trading days and has no ability to rebound even a percent with everything seemingly "on sale." There is no institutional interest at all and when that's the case there is only one direction for the market to go.
Thanks everyone for the concern and interest.
Maintaining: 100% G
Well, I think we are at a critical point. The question is...can this market trade positively without oil prices dropping? I believe it cannot, not that there wouldn't or couldn't be a mini-rally but that would just be sold right back. The sell-off in Europe today I think was telling. Without the impetus of American markets they took it upon themselves to sell a solid 1% and more. Monday could be very ugly, and could be the capitulation day many are looking for. I could also see this waiting for Tuesday, if traders are still out of the office with a long weekend, but at any rate I do see a bad day coming. Institutional selling is in an uptrend, the Volatility Index broke through resistence levels that accompanied/caused the two prior lows, and this has created the third knock on the door with markets slamming into the current range (1262 on the S&P). It's an almost physical activity that we see, and just as physically ramming a door multiple times will lead to busting through the door, this third hit at critical resistence should be enough. I think we may see the S&P at 1230. If oil doesn't drop, it could get even worse.
Well, I think we are at a critical point. The question is...can this market trade positively without oil prices dropping? I believe it cannot, not that there wouldn't or couldn't be a mini-rally but that would just be sold right back. The sell-off in Europe today I think was telling. Without the impetus of American markets they took it upon themselves to sell a solid 1% and more. Monday could be very ugly, and could be the capitulation day many are looking for. I could also see this waiting for Tuesday, if traders are still out of the office with a long weekend, but at any rate I do see a bad day coming. Institutional selling is in an uptrend, the Volatility Index broke through resistence levels that accompanied/caused the two prior lows, and this has created the third knock on the door with markets slamming into the current range (1262 on the S&P). It's an almost physical activity that we see, and just as physically ramming a door multiple times will lead to busting through the door, this third hit at critical resistence should be enough. I think we may see the S&P at 1230. If oil doesn't drop, it could get even worse.
IFT for COB 9 Jul 08
70% G
10% C
10% S
10% I
Ok, well I'm not going to gamble TOO much but I am going to make this move. I feel fairly safe with the S&P at critical resistence and possible downward pressure on oil. Best of luck. I think there still might be a bad day out there, perhaps, but with the sell-off that has occurred there is some room for movement upward. I'm hoping I can stick with this position for a good part of the month. We will see.
70% G
10% C
10% S
10% I
Ok, well I'm not going to gamble TOO much but I am going to make this move. I feel fairly safe with the S&P at critical resistence and possible downward pressure on oil. Best of luck. I think there still might be a bad day out there, perhaps, but with the sell-off that has occurred there is some room for movement upward. I'm hoping I can stick with this position for a good part of the month. We will see.
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Well shucks, that really wasn't what I wanted to see today. While it will be nice to be in cheaper tommorrow, today's sell-off indicates short-term weakness more strongly than it provides an opportunity for a massive short-term run-up. Asia will sell hard and Europe will follow suit and so Thursday and Friday will become critical days to watch and could be exceedingly dangerous. Some help comes with oil prices falling and significantly off the highs, so that might mediate traders concerns in other areas and allow for some stability at least as far as end of the day prices on the major indexes. Who knows. Critical two days ahead.
IFT for COB 14 July
100% G Fund
Another "oh well." I thought I might be able to catch an uptick, and there still may very will be, but the risk reward scenario is out of sync for me. Although I don't think it will happen super-fast, I do believe we will see a further 10% drop in the markets and so I can't justify even playing around with small percentages exposed. I've done well accumulating my own contributions and staying out of this mess since December, and I don't want to go backwards. Any uptrend will be sold off, IMO, so I'm just gonna bail.
100% G Fund
Another "oh well." I thought I might be able to catch an uptick, and there still may very will be, but the risk reward scenario is out of sync for me. Although I don't think it will happen super-fast, I do believe we will see a further 10% drop in the markets and so I can't justify even playing around with small percentages exposed. I've done well accumulating my own contributions and staying out of this mess since December, and I don't want to go backwards. Any uptrend will be sold off, IMO, so I'm just gonna bail.
http://stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
We still have a condition that IMO doesn't permit any serious committment to this market, as far as the broad indexes are concerned. For day-traders it's fine, this is where you can make money. The risk created by any uptrend, without significant institutional involvement, as well as limited liquidity, either will bind the market into a relatively narrow price range that will always descend to prior lower resistence eventually and at the same time expose anyone heavily weighted in stocks to a dangerous market event. The liquidity is out there, but it's not participating.
And I believe we still haven't seen the totality of the effect of the mix of factors that have led to this downturn, the key element being the consumers ability to keep spending. We haven't completely reached the point where, en masse, consumers are constricted by their own high debt, maxed out credit cards, inability to borrow, and the loss of value in their homes. The consumer has held up well relative to the conditions we find ourselves in but the moment their inability is exposed in the numbers the danger level will be high for a significant breakdown in the markets. We've mitigated through monetary and government policy the effects, with rebate checks and interest rate cuts, but more rebates cannot be afforded and the FED is positioned badly to move in either direction.
Enough of that, here's hoping everyone gets a decent vacation this summer.
We still have a condition that IMO doesn't permit any serious committment to this market, as far as the broad indexes are concerned. For day-traders it's fine, this is where you can make money. The risk created by any uptrend, without significant institutional involvement, as well as limited liquidity, either will bind the market into a relatively narrow price range that will always descend to prior lower resistence eventually and at the same time expose anyone heavily weighted in stocks to a dangerous market event. The liquidity is out there, but it's not participating.
And I believe we still haven't seen the totality of the effect of the mix of factors that have led to this downturn, the key element being the consumers ability to keep spending. We haven't completely reached the point where, en masse, consumers are constricted by their own high debt, maxed out credit cards, inability to borrow, and the loss of value in their homes. The consumer has held up well relative to the conditions we find ourselves in but the moment their inability is exposed in the numbers the danger level will be high for a significant breakdown in the markets. We've mitigated through monetary and government policy the effects, with rebate checks and interest rate cuts, but more rebates cannot be afforded and the FED is positioned badly to move in either direction.
Enough of that, here's hoping everyone gets a decent vacation this summer.
http://stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
If you've made money on the recent rally, now is the time to get out IMO.
If you've made money on the recent rally, now is the time to get out IMO.
Edit: Maintaining 100%G
http://stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
We still have the dicey problem of discovering what the big money, the institutional investor, is going to do. The short squeeze rallies we've seen on low volume, IMO, point to a greater possibility that the move will be down rather than up, in addition to the fact that we remain in a primary downtrend. I could be completely wrong, but safety is more warranted than risk in this environment.
http://stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
We still have the dicey problem of discovering what the big money, the institutional investor, is going to do. The short squeeze rallies we've seen on low volume, IMO, point to a greater possibility that the move will be down rather than up, in addition to the fact that we remain in a primary downtrend. I could be completely wrong, but safety is more warranted than risk in this environment.
Birchtree
Well-known member
If you follow TICK for money flow it's at an all time high and getting stronger. Also the gaps in the NYSE breadth MCSUM are wide and smooth indicating that money has been flowing into some indexes - especially the small caps recently. The NYSE breadth MCO remains within the confines of a horizontal pattern well above the zero line which does suggest that the bulls remain in control of things, and are attempting to build a longer term base. What the bull needs to do now is watch the structure of the MCSUM regards money flow. Is it choppy or is it moving higher smoothly.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Great job! Reactive, why not join the tracker? Since you are doing so good, it would be nice to add your IFT's to the "ensemble".
Show-me
Well-known member
Corepuncher
Well-known member
I still don't understand why the "Grace Period" isn't just extended until like 5pm since the tracker software isn't run until nighttime anyway. Why not make it easier, not hard, for people to remember?
Just my two cents on the issue.
Also, another nice feature might be if you do a top 5 or top 10 return weighted allocation. You would first determine the weights based upon return.
Say you add up the top 5 returns and get 30%, and #1 person has a return of 10%, then his allocation would recieve a 33% weight. Do that for each of the top 5 or top 10 to come up with an allocation. You could even place this allocation in the Table.
Just my two cents on the issue.
Also, another nice feature might be if you do a top 5 or top 10 return weighted allocation. You would first determine the weights based upon return.
Say you add up the top 5 returns and get 30%, and #1 person has a return of 10%, then his allocation would recieve a 33% weight. Do that for each of the top 5 or top 10 to come up with an allocation. You could even place this allocation in the Table.
INVSTSMRT78
Member
So, do I smell an IFT for COB today? This is where I am:
G - 5%
F - 0%
C - 45%
S - 40%
I - 10%
Thoughts on moving back into the G for a little while. Oh, appologize ahead of time; I am new at this! Only four yrs in the Gov't.
G - 5%
F - 0%
C - 45%
S - 40%
I - 10%
Thoughts on moving back into the G for a little while. Oh, appologize ahead of time; I am new at this! Only four yrs in the Gov't.
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