Reactive1's Account Talk

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

I don't read to much into today's numbers. No doubt a lot of people had their computers set to sell on the slightest downtick and this perpetuated itself all day long and was supported by bad earnings numbers, that everyone knew was coming anyway. In addition is the real problem that effects thinking on the future of the market and economy, housing. This great unknown is a real issue that will have to be dealt with, or play itself out in some way, before the markets are "clear for takeoff." While housing is "only" 5% of the overall economy, 1. That's still a hell of a lot and 2. The pebble in the pond effect of the housing and credit issues could be profound. There is resiliancy, but the economy in some sense operates on the fringes and it doesn't take much to cause real problems.

 

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

Minor adjustment IFT for Thursday AM--Finally able to do anything, just got the new account number!!!

40% G
30% F
10% C
10% S
10% I

Man, the pessimism is rampant out there. I'm adding a little to the F fund as I think it will do very well going forward as interest rates fall. The Fed will almost surely drop .25, could do a shocker again too. Some very intelligent people are saying it's possible they won't move at all, like former Fed governors and so forth, but they will have that blood on their hands if they make that decision. Tommorrow will be very interesting, as will the rest of the week. I sleep well with this position, but I remain on the fence.

 

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

IFT for Friday AM

50% G
25% C
25% S

I'm seeing a rally tommorrow on decent or better than expected jobs numbers. Focus is changing daily, today it's credit and possible lack of future rate cuts (yea, right) tommorrow it will be on more positive fundamentals. Hoping I'm right, of course. Best of luck to all.

 

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

Well, I called that one wrong. But I think I will just stick with this position for Monday as well and see if we can get some of this back. Best of luck to everyone.

 

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

Whew, that sure ended up better than a sharp stick in the eye!!!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

I have found that betting against fund flows, prevailing sentiment, and trend lines has made contrarian investors the most money over the years. Snort.

 

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

IFT for Tuesday

30% G
25% F
15% C
15% S
15% I

 

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

IFT for Monday:

50% G
50% F

Nothing but bad news from the retail sector and most likely more next week. I'll do everyone a favor and move out of stocks for a little while. I just don't see how the market is going to react positively in the near short term. Sure could use a great day tommorrow.

 

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

Maintaining this position for now. Best of luck to everyone, and have a great Thanksgiving!!!

 

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

IFT for Friday:

20% G
20% F
20% C
20% S
20% I

I think from a technical standpoint Tues. and Wed. have brought the market potential back and although it might have been better to buy back in lower, my look here is more technical mid long-term than trader short term (and I'm not really much of a trader anyway). It appears the 10% reverse was just that, and now we have a reversal of sentiment and trend that could give us a great December out of an over-sold market. I've been saying these two days were critical, and I believe they were, in that they answered the questions at least from a technical standpoint as to what the market was trying to do. There was the opportunity to test prior lows and they failed and moved opposite. I also see the dollar coming back, oil coming down, and overwhelming bearish sentiment for months. The Feds action in December will obviously be critical and they've really put themselves in a difficult position IMO, but I'll trust they're smarter than me, and that they are paying attention.

 

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

IFT for Tuesday AM:

20% G
50% F
10% C
10% S
10% I

Nice day up tommorrow would be awesome, but I've got to bail a little bit. This things awful from a technical standpoint.

 

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

IFT for Monday AM

50% G
50% F

 

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

Maintaining this position for now but looking at a possible play for Friday. Wow, what a ride they have us on now! I have the day off tommorrow so perhaps we can look at some things, but a 50k jobs number on Friday is less than encouraging whether that meets some expectations or not, it's not a good number. I remain basically confused and extremely cautious.

 

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

IFT for Thursday AM

85% G
5 % C
5% S
5% I

I'm going to take a very small risk to steal a little money and just see what happens but I will be watching very closely. In the end I will be back OUT of stocks in the short term at least.

 

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

Well, it appears my IFT didn't "take" but it also appears the TSP website is having problems so I'm just not sure. No huge deal either way for me, but I will attempt to get back to 50 G 50 F for Friday. We may, and I think probably will, see an uptick tommorrow but this environment is too risky for me. I've done OK with all of this turbulence in the last 6 months. I haven't made any money, but I haven't lost any either so I'm basically in preservation mode. Best of luck to everyone.

 

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

IFT for Friday AM

50% G
50% F

 

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

Maintaining this position for now.

50% G
50% F

I might be inspired to move back in for Thursday but more than likely I won't.

 

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

Well, I've been very fortunate missing this recent radical downturn. Wow. My feeling is that capitulation has not been seen...that we need one key day similiar to today (Thursday). But that still will not be the best buy in point although it also would not be a disaster to buy in on this key day. It may take even more days or months, perhaps March to seriously look at a buy-in point.

Ben needs to be removed from his position. He has no understanding of the real world outside his academic understanding of the markets and he has no political sense. He has made the mistake of doing rate cuts and always leaving investors on the lookout for the "next" one, so people sit on the sidelines, home-buyers/investors, waiting. Why not wait? You know another rate cut is coming so why not wait? That is NOT the way to do this. His moves are indecisive resulting in him being manipulated by the markets. It's a disaster. He's just the wrong person.

Hang in there everyone.

 

[Reactive1]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

IFT for Tuesday COB:

100% G

Moving to pure safety. I want to see what this week brings. I don't understand the impact potential of the bond insurers mess so I don't want to be caught up in it, just incase. I'm in radical capital preservation mode right now, doing well, and I don't want to take any chances. If anyone has insight on the F fund and what the possibilities are, please post it here.:nuts:

 

[Mr recognizer]

Re: Reactive1 Account Talk

mbia under investigation by ERISA.... the trainwreck just keeps rolling along........