Reactive1's Account Talk

Maintaining: 100% G Fund

Well, I want to play, and I do think you will see another decent week and maybe even more, another 2 or 3 percent up wouldn't surprise me at all, in fact it could be even more, but I would caution anyone to be very careful. Major resistence is met at that point, approx. 1350 on the S&P will battle with the bulls and then 1400 would be all-out warfare. If you do get to 1400, SELL, IMO. I hate to be on the sidelines for this but my key indicator is that institutional money is still not buying, and in fact is selling. I struggle a little to see the forces that would get the market to move as it appears it will in the short term, but my spider-sense tells me it will, and there is little resistence between now and 1350 and momentum could very well take it higher. Still, that uptick is flying in the face institutional activity, extreme technical damage done already to the markets, and continued weakness in employment, economic growth, and housing. Where there is one Bear Stearns story, there is certainly another and that's all that will be required to send the market into a tailspin, again. I believe it would be foolish to think that the deterioration that has occured will be so short-lived, as if the realities that brought us to this point are somehow no longer in place. Once in a century moves by the FED might have been necessary and prudent, but it's good news in the broadest sense, not IMO for the short term.

I screwed up and made two IFT's and I don't want to make a third this month. I would probably buy in for this week if I could, and I will play it smarter for April, hopefully.
 
From StockTiming.com

Pay attention to what happens to the Chinese market tonight!

The Shanghai Composite was down -5.42% last night. The Shanghai has lost just over 40% of its value since its high of only 5 months ago. It now has to hold its Major support levels between 3358.93 and 3400. Last night it fell to 3407.90. This is a critical level where China could drop into a free-fall if they break these supports tonight.
In the past, the world markets have been shaken up when the Shanghai had a serious drop. Now, the world markets seem to just be ignoring what is happening in China. That will change if the Shanghai fails to hold its support now. Pay attention to the Shanghai now ... especially what happens during their trading tonight
 
More from Stocktiming.com:

It dropped to 3357.23 ... a mere 1.7 points from our last support level where a precipitous drop could have happened.
Then rumors started flying ... rumors of possible government moves to support the market ... and then rumors that the stamp tax duty on stock trading would be cut ... and then more rumors that the government might soon introduce stock index futures.
The rumors spurred buying and the Shanghai then rose 4.94% higher than the previous day's close.
Now, Chinese consensus is that their government better come out and support these rumors over the weekend or they will have a big problem Monday morning.
When rumors turn out to be untrue, then a stock or the market can whipsaw investors. The Chinese government is now in a pickle for Monday morning if they don't prove that at least some of the rumors are true.







From StockTiming.com

Pay attention to what happens to the Chinese market tonight!

The Shanghai Composite was down -5.42% last night. The Shanghai has lost just over 40% of its value since its high of only 5 months ago. It now has to hold its Major support levels between 3358.93 and 3400. Last night it fell to 3407.90. This is a critical level where China could drop into a free-fall if they break these supports tonight.
In the past, the world markets have been shaken up when the Shanghai had a serious drop. Now, the world markets seem to just be ignoring what is happening in China. That will change if the Shanghai fails to hold its support now. Pay attention to the Shanghai now ... especially what happens during their trading tonight
 
Drop to 3329, 4+%




More from Stocktiming.com:

It dropped to 3357.23 ... a mere 1.7 points from our last support level where a precipitous drop could have happened.
Then rumors started flying ... rumors of possible government moves to support the market ... and then rumors that the stamp tax duty on stock trading would be cut ... and then more rumors that the government might soon introduce stock index futures.
The rumors spurred buying and the Shanghai then rose 4.94% higher than the previous day's close.
Now, Chinese consensus is that their government better come out and support these rumors over the weekend or they will have a big problem Monday morning.

When rumors turn out to be untrue, then a stock or the market can whipsaw investors. The Chinese government is now in a pickle for Monday morning if they don't prove that at least some of the rumors are true.
 
IFT effective COB 1 April 08

70% G
10% C
10% S
10% I

Taking a very small risk here that we might seem some uptick in the market following today's monster rally.
 
Maintaining:

70% G
10% C
10% S
10% I

Ok, well that worked out pretty well. Not that I made any huge money but it was nice to be "in" if even a little. The S&P obviously hit critical resistance at 1390 and now we'll just have to see. The overall trend still remains in a downward direction but there are bullish trends (inverse head and shoulder) coming off of massive bearish sentiment at least for the very near short term. The huge question is whether we can break this range of 1320-1390. If not, it remains supremely dangerous, and if we can break through, it's still my view that it will be short-lived.
 
Maintaining 100% G Fund.

The strongest indication is for a downturn in the markets at this point. The attempted rally failed to break through critical resistence at the 200 MDA and should now retrace, already having moved below longer term resistence to the downside this week.:blink:
 
We are again in dangerous territory as a technical matter relative to the Shanghai index, though just as before it does not NECESSARILY have to be so. It's information worth knowing. The quoted information is from March when the potential was in place for a dramatic drop, which did not occur. As I type this the index has dropped to 3406. Be very careful in the short term.



From StockTiming.com

Pay attention to what happens to the Chinese market tonight!

The Shanghai Composite was down -5.42% last night. The Shanghai has lost just over 40% of its value since its high of only 5 months ago. It now has to hold its Major support levels between 3358.93 and 3400. Last night it fell to 3407.90. This is a critical level where China could drop into a free-fall if they break these supports tonight.
In the past, the world markets have been shaken up when the Shanghai had a serious drop. Now, the world markets seem to just be ignoring what is happening in China. That will change if the Shanghai fails to hold its support now. Pay attention to the Shanghai now ... especially what happens during their trading tonight
 
Shanghai falls again.

down_r.gif
108.55 (-3.13%)
 
Maintaining: 100% G

Expect radical volatility but no net gain. Don't fall in love with any surge, IMO. This market is badly damaged. Gains have been on low volume, losses on high volume. The 43 drop presents a dangerous possibility that makes any risk not worthwhile as resistence levels are broken.
 
IFT for COB 11 June 08

70% G
10% C
10% S
10% I

Just a small play for fun thinking tommorrow could be a good day for a bounce. I will probably just buy right back out, not sure yet. Best of luck to everyone.
 
Why did you blow your 2 June stock moves, considering the circumstances mentioned in your thread? Retreat will cost you your second move. The Shanghai Composite was down 48.093 (-1.57%) to 3,024.24 last night. :confused: For fun?? :confused:

From StockTiming.com

Pay attention to what happens to the Chinese market tonight!

The Shanghai Composite was down -5.42% last night. The Shanghai has lost just over 40% of its value since its high of only 5 months ago. It now has to hold its Major support levels between 3358.93 and 3400. Last night it fell to 3407.90. This is a critical level where China could drop into a free-fall if they break these supports tonight.
In the past, the world markets have been shaken up when the Shanghai had a serious drop. Now, the world markets seem to just be ignoring what is happening in China. That will change if the Shanghai fails to hold its support now. Pay attention to the Shanghai now ... especially what happens during their trading tonight
We are again in dangerous territory as a technical matter relative to the Shanghai index, though just as before it does not NECESSARILY have to be so. It's information worth knowing. The quoted information is from March when the potential was in place for a dramatic drop, which did not occur. As I type this the index has dropped to 3406. Be very careful in the short term.
 
Five, thanks for your concern but I have no intention of spending any significant time in the equities. "For fun" was probably bad phraseology and the tone of my post was wrong. Make no mistake about my view of this current market, the market is just plain sick and the technicals are horrendous. But the risk with my allocation is VERY low and I just feel stocks are short term over-sold. For this month anyway, I'm not concerned with blowing the two IFT's.
 
IFT for COB 11 June 08

70% G
10% C
10% S
10% I

Just a small play for fun thinking tommorrow could be a good day for a bounce. I will probably just buy right back out, not sure yet. Best of luck to everyone.

I made a similair IFT for Wednesday's action (80% G, 12% C, 5% S, and 3% I), hoping to pocket the gains for Wednesday and Thursday and move back to 90% G but it hasn't worked out that way. I made this IFT on Tuesday after the 12:00 noon deadline. I should of waited until Wednesday morning and made the decision on what to do closer to the deadline.
 
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